Playoff Elimination Game Totals: 2007

[BetCrimes1984]

Playoff basketball brings the the table sudden-death basketball, which is a scenario perfect for the manifestation of Under results - tight players executing deliberate plays isn't the ground upon which liberal scoring is made.

*An elimination game is when at least 1 team faces an end to their post season should they lose the game concerned straight-up.

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Since keeping records starting with the 03-04 post season, the stats I've accumulated for all Elimination games total results are as follows:


Overall

All Elimination Games: U/O 32-18

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 9-10
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 23-8


1st Round of playoffs

All Elimination Games: U/O 14-11

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 7-7
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 7-4


2nd Round & onwards of playoffs

All Elimination Games: U/O 18-7

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 2-3
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 16-4

Clearly the prime spot to take Unders are in a game 6 or 7 taking place during the 2nd round or beyond, when both teams have a series win under their belts and are both winners of at least 2 games in the current series. With one of those games going Over only due to a meaningless 3 at the end of a game, that figure could easily be 17-3 to Under (24-7 overall). And by extension, all game 6s & 7s in general should be considered as potential Under plays to begin with.

The one team to prove the exception (whose results I haven't incl. in the above figures) is - no suprise - Phoenix....

Phoenix Suns

Elimination games they win SU: O/U 6-0
Elimination games they lose SU: O/U 1-2

For Phoenix it doesnt matter the nature of the game (4, 5, 6 or 7) they're playing in, or the Round they're playing it in, in relation to the final total result: it's down to their SU performance.

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06-07 Elimination game results


Round 1

PHX-LAK Game 5 - Over

ORL-DET Game 4 - Over
MIA-CHC Game 4 - Under
WAS-CLE Game 4 - Under
TOR-NJY Game 5 - Over
DAL-GDS Game 5 - Over
SAS-DEN Game 5 - Under
UTH-HOU Game 6 - Under
DAL-GDS Game 6 - Under
NJY-TOR Game 6 - Over
UTH-HOU Game 7 - Over


Round 2

CHC-DET Game 4 - Over
DET-CHC Game 5 - Over
UTH-GDS Game 5 - Under
CLE-NJY. Game 5 - Under
CHC-DET Game 6 - Under
NJY.-CLE Game 6 - Under

SAS-PHX Game 6 - Over


Round 3

SAS-UTH Game 5 - Over
CLE.-DET Game 6 - Over


Round 4

CLE-SAS Game 4 - Under


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It's a little late now, but I found this and thought I'd save it here for future reference...

<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]THE NBA PLAYOFFS - THE TOTAL PICTURE [/FONT]

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</TD></TR><TR><TD>[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]by: Tom Scott [/FONT]


</TD></TR><TR><TD>[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]2007-04-11 17:02:40 [/FONT]




</TD></TR><TR><TD>[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]As a bettor myself, I look forward to the NBA Playoffs, mostly because I win. Annually, I make a significant profit during this event which allows me to enjoy the summer without having to worry about paying for pool chemicals. The reason for my success (31-15 ATS over the past three years on this site) in these events is that I do not allow myself to get caught up in the drama, maintaining a calm unbiased attitude toward the games that are played. In this article, I will pass along some of my handicapping techniques to help you navigate through this period without having to take a second mortgage on the house. [/FONT]

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]WHEN DECIDING TO PLAY THE TOTALS, most every plunger looks for the Over first. It's a natural tendency formed mostly by the idea that, if you take the OVER, you can't lose until the game is complete. You can lose the Under anytime during the second half. For that reason alone, the linemaker adjusts nightly in favor of the Over and because he is doing so without sound reasoning, we can take him out behind the woodshed and thrash him from pillar to post.[/FONT]


[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Let's start this treatise with one simple rule - "NEVER PLAY THE OVER IN AN NBA PLAYOFF GAME". Flat statements don't get any flatter than that but this one isn't just a whimsical warning, it's backed by the facts. Except for the games in which the OU Line is 220 or higher, the UNDER won more times than the OVER in all six of the line categories (ranges of ten starting with 160-169.5). What follows is a set of eight different situations where the UNDER prevails profitably.[/FONT]


[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]WHEN THE GAME HAS:[/FONT]

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]A road underdog who is off exactly one playoff loss playing in the third game or later of the current series and the OU Line is greater than 177.5, the UNDER has won 76 times in 128 tries.[/FONT]

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]A home favorite or a home underdog of less than +5 who is off three consecutive ATS wins playing a .600 or better opponent, the UNDER has won 45 times in 73 tries.[/FONT]

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]A home favorite off exactly one win against a .600 or better opponent , the UNDER has won 97 times in 155 tries.[/FONT]

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]A road underdog who is off a loss and both teams scored less than 90 in their previous games, the UNDER has won 47 times in 80 tries.[/FONT]

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]A team (either side) who allowed less than 75 points in its previous game and the OU Line is greater than 170, the UNDER has won 42 times in 64 tries.[/FONT]


[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]WHEN THE TOURNAMENT ROUND OR GAME NUMBER IS: [/FONT]

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Game two of any series in which the OVER connected in game one and the Game Two OU Line is less than 184, the UNDER has won 34 times in 52 tries.[/FONT]

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]The first game of any second round series and the OU Line is less than 206, the UNDER has won 58 times in 100 tries.[/FONT]

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Game three of any series where the home team scored more than 97 in its previous game and the OU Line is greater than 193, the UNDER has won 37 times in 55 tries.[/FONT]


[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]If you add up all eight of those records, you will find 436 UNDERS against just 272 OVERS, A profitable 61.6% winners [/FONT]



</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>​

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[brewer]

thanks for sharing BC

 

[c.r.e.a.m.]

Thanks for the info BC!!!

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Guys:shake: Seeing these past percentages hold true this post season should make for some enjoyable sudden death games for us all.

 

[B.A.R.]

No doubt..gotta love this

 

[JPicks]

Your time and information are always appreciated. Good stuff.

 

[The Farm]

Guys:shake: Seeing these past percentages hold true this post season should make for some enjoyable sudden death games for us all.

:cheers:

 

[Inspekdah]

Thanks.

 

[redbearde]

 

[bluemyboy]

I am almost inclined to treat GSW like a Phx. Already pushed their first elimination game over and they did not even win. I'll probably play the under still as GSW are not as dominant as Phx or quite as explosive imo. That and Dallas really needs to control this one on GS home court.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

blue, I tend to agree. Except to note no game Dallas has lost has totaled more than 203, and no game they've won has totaled less than 211. It would seem the total is pretty much bound up with who wins.

 

[ATLHawksBandwagon]

I'm thinking like this Jazz/Spurs game might be an exception to the rule, actually I'm hoping since I made a bet then remembered about this thread. The Jazz need to push, and I think Deron continues to score for himself. It's just a matter of the Spurs mind set, but have you seen more over's in elimination senarios in games 4/5?? Where the underdog has no pressure? That's what I'm hoping

 

[bluemyboy]

need I say we must be fast to act after the det/Cle gm 5 is done in order to get the best number on the under. that one will drop like a rock imo.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

With any luck, game 5 will go Over w/Cleveland winning. It's those circumstances that would set up a certain kind of DET effort for game 6 that would have me come as close as I'm willing to call a play a lock.

 

[bluemyboy]

was going to stick around and try and grab the first thing off the line, but drinking and golf are calling me away. I still think that right after this game the best line the under sees is then.

 

[JPicks]

With any luck, game 5 will go Over w/Cleveland winning. It's those circumstances that would set up a certain kind of DET effort for game 6 that would have me come as close as I'm willing to call a play a lock.

A play worthy of MDF indeed.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Got the scenario, JP.

Now its a matter of the opening line, where it moves, and how many people get on the Under.

 

[JPicks]

Looks like it's at 173.5 at Pinny after opening at 174.5. They moved it a all at once half an hour after it opened. No way in hell that you'll get more than 40% on the under. This baby will probably be quite lopsided. I'm really loving this play.