Playoff Baseball, Wednesday 10/3

Yanks27Sox9

Yanks27Sox9

CTG Partner
Left off playing bases a while ago. Tried to come back, and at least play something here & there...but just coudn't find the time to cap everything once football arrived. But anyways, it's the post season...and time to delve back into the (october) fray.

2007 Regular Season #'s:
YTD: 232-202-3, +33.82 units
Parlays: 1-7, -2.468 units

So onto these Wednesday game 1's...


CHI ML (+123) over AZ for a 1/2 unit
Zambrano vs Webb

BOS RL -1.5 over LAA (+130) for a 1/2 unit
LAA/BOS over 9 (+105) for 1 unit
Lackey vs Beckett

COL/PHI over 9 (+106) for 1 unit
Francis vs Hamels


So much points to the D'backs winning this first game, but i went the other way. Partly expecting a very young AZ team to be a bit overwhelmed/nervous/anxious...and partly expecting one of those stellar road starts outta Zambrano.

The BoSox pretty much own the Halos when playing in Boston. Definitely not a place they have much success...and definitely a place where Lackey (historically) pitches poorly. Been collecting stats and shit on these AL series for a week now. So i'll try to get most of them copied in here shortly.

The Rockie/Phillie over is to get a feel of this series...as both teams enter this thing pretty hot. Francis has horrible #'s against the Phillies...but i feel Hamels might get roughed up a bit too. Then there are the pens for both sides...which in the Rockie's case, should be already worn out.

In any case...let the October games begin. :cheers:
 
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btw...i love how the Halo/BoSox series is setting up. my plan in game two, with dice-k going against escobar, is to play the over again.
then in game three...with schilling going against weaver...playing both the under and the halos.


and i'll try to not infuriate all the cleveland fans too much, w/ the other series. but imo, this one sets up very nicely too. it's the short series...and i've got lot's of lovely #'s and shit to throw out there.

anyone know the SP matchup yet for Colorado/Philly?
 
Well, what to say? You are making what seem to you to be logical choices. I live in Arizona. As it happens I like Arizona in the first game and am still considering if I bet them for the series. Homer? Not me, not in a million years.
This is a night game. Arizona is 69-48 in night games easily the best record in the National Leaque. The Cubs are 42-39. Carlos is 4-6 last 10. He was quietly getting hammered and then after losing 6 straight he won at Pitt who had lost 8 straight before the game. Now he plays at Cards who had lost 7 straight and wins again. Now he runs into the Reds at home when they still had a team and gets beaten. Now he plays mighty Pitt again for a w and then finishs with the no players left Reds. Loud clapping.
Carlos is a headcase. If he feels comfortable he can be tremendous. The last time he pitched in Arizona was 2005. The last 2 times he did not finish the 5th inning. Not really seeing why he should be comfortable.
Truth is the Cubs have way the best manager, the best single offensive player and nothing much else as an edge. I give them a minor disadvantage in pens because of their closer. The real question here is if the idiot Arizona manager can blow the game. I doubt it. As it happens Arizona and Webb are actually no joking at all very Lucky at home on Wednesdays. Will be looking more at the other games. GL
 
hey yanks, i am on the cubs and boston, and im also on philly. francis gets F*CKIN rocked by the phils and the rocks have never seen hamels, who just had the best outing of the year his last time out. i just won with the rocks against the padres, and i know its dangerous as hell betting against the hottest team in the league, but the phils r ridiculously dope and they SLAM lefties. i remember looking at their stats in the 2nd half of the season and they were hitting .400 for a while against lefties. lackey has been dominant, but i gotta roll with the healthy bosox against the angels who have vlady as day-to-day. of course he will play but he may not be 100%. in response to tuck, everyone knows zambrano is a headcase already and that doesnt factor in at all. like him or not, the guy is fuckin tight. he can overpower u or he can throw nasty fuckin breaking balls. dont get me wrong i know how dope webb is, i made mad cash with him this year. but, the cubs r without a doubt in my mind the better team. the cubs have a fuckin deadly lineup while the dbacks have byrnes and strikeout prone chris b young. cubs bullpen is the shit right now, but you r right about the closer. dempster sucks bad and valverde is awesome. that doesnt mean the bullpen of arizona is better tho. hopefully the cubs have a 4-5 run lead going into the ninth. the cubs r hungry as hell, while arizona should just be happy to be in the playoffs.
 
i also think the night stat doesnt mean anything, and your stats about zambrano being not great is a lil misleading. you should know first hand that webb hasnt been lights out of late either. and zambrano has back to back 0ER outings so he is str8 as hell.
 
Looks good Yanks...seems like we ended up on the same sides for both the games you put in here...not going to touch totals until I get a better feel for how these playoff games are going to be umpired...I realize its supposedly the same, but it sure never feels like that to me.

Then again, why would I be surprised to match your picks? All last year we were on most of the same CF picks...may as well happen in baseball, too.

Knock 'em dead.
 
Thought I would check my numbers. Turns out that in Sept. the Cubs played 29 games. 25 against under 500 teams. They played 4 games at home vs the Dodgers going 1-3 in their 4 games against a real team. The night stat. In the American League Cleveland and Anaheim are tied at plus 19 so the Arizona plus 21 is the best record for night games in mlb which apparently may mean nothing. The real point to consider is that all those inproved stats in Sept that GameHunter and others are so happy about are possibly a little Questionable. GL
 
i definately think the night stat doesnt mean much, i look at it everytime and there are som pitchers who pitch well at night or well during the day, if there is a huge discrepancy between the starting pitchers than it can factored but in this case these pitchers pitch well at any time of the day. u were talking trash about pitt. but arizona lost 2 of 3 at the end of the season to them so they obviously r a lil tougher than u give them credit for.
 
Jimbo Arizona is 40-41 on the road. Livian is fat junk. Doug Davis is a very streaky pitcher who just broke out of a terrible streak. I have not bet the series at least yet. But at home Arizona is 50-31 and the Cubs on the road are 41-40. The bet we are talking about is Arizona at home at night with Carlos vs Webb. Meanwhile the Cubs playing over 500 teams are 29-36 and Arizona is 42-38. What I see here is the worst variation. People betting on a public dog without any real foundation or reason and I am trying to stop that. GL
 
The one thing about the D-backs is they really did outplay the Cubs during the season. The Cubs had fits with their bullpen. Granted, this is the postseason and things are different. The Cubs played better ball overall later in the year than in the end of the summer IMO. The D-backs didn't get to see that. I think the Cubs got this series and it starts tomorrow. I expect a great game out of Z. D-backs will win Game 2 I am thinking.
 
good stuff, guys.

Added in the Rockie/Philly over 9 today. It's up in the 1st post now. But i'm liking a lot of runs in this one. And besides, this is the one series where i really need to see a game or two to get a feel on things.


Tuck...
I hear what you're saying, bro. And all valid points. Like i said above...there's a ton of shit that points to AZ winning. However, there are 2 things i haven't mentioned yet...on top of the brief stuff i've hinted at already.

The first is run differential. AZ is an enigma to me. They must win all the 1 run games...but whenever they lose, it's like 10-1 or something.
But run differential...though by no means the entire story...points to this 90 win AZ team as (at least in part) really being an under .500 team.
The game boils down to scoring more runs than the other team. Of course there's more to the story, which i'm leaving out, but it surprises the shit out of me to see something so drastically out of whack.

But anyways...the biggest part of me taking the Cubs today relates to somethign entirely different. And it's also basically the way i bet the NHL playoffs this past season.
Bottom line...i don't see the individual game as a whole. I see it as merely a piece to the series (the whole). So saying that, what i'm claiming is that i fully expect the Cubs to earn a split in AZ...in the first 2 games. So if AZ wins today...no worries. If i'm right about the split...the manner in which i bet game two will have me in the positive for the series...heading into game 3.
So you'll see me switching sides mid-series many times...and basically the situation of the series (as a whole) going a long way to determining my play on the next game...beyond the normal stuff we use to cap.

For example...providing i'm right...and the Cubs get a split, and head back to Chicago tied 1-1 in this series. I'll either be 1-1 and up some, or 2-0 and up a lot. Of course i can be completely wrong, and AZ takes the first two at home...but i jsut don't see it that way at all. Again, what i'm expecting is a split in these 1st two. I also expect this series to be a classic 5 gamer...so i'll be betting AZ to get the split in Chicago as well.

Hope that makes sense, at least a little.

In any case, GL tomorrow everyone. Gonna be a blast having playoff baseball on TV all day long!!!
:cheers:
 
btw...i'll get 2 some of that Tribe/Yankee stuff tomorrow. i'm sorry, but Cleveland wins only 1 game this series. it'll either be game one or game two...and then the series will end in NY.

like i said, the Cubbie/D'back series is going 5. lean towards Chicago to pull the series outta their ass.

not sure yet on the Rockie/Philly series. need to see a game or two, as this series seems tricky to predict.

bosox will most likely take the first 2 at home. halos will take game 3 at home. need to see the game 4 SPs, but lean to LAA. then Boston to end it in game 5...if not game 4.


let the games begin!
 
Very good discussion here, I think I have to agree with Tuck with most points, and am leaning Snakes myself.

Anyways, I like several of your plays Yanks, GL in the playoffs. :cheers:
 
Yanks my friend.

Indians have 4 better starters than NY. Bullpen is superior too. Yankees havent faced Sabathia since 2005 and he is a totally better pitcher now. His strike-ball ratio says it all.

Those guys in "stripes" will be hand-cuffed in Cleveland as Carmona shuts-down all those over-swinging home run hitters too.

Yanks go home in trouble and down 0-2.
 
I have to agree with GMan no matter what sport it is, if a team has beaten another team during the regular season badly, in the postseason it seems to always turn out that the team that has gotten beaten advances in the series.
 
I see equal pens in the Cleveland series with a clear edge in closer to Yanks. Will still take plus money when available for Cleveland at home with Sabat and Carmona. GL
 
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