Betting On Players Who Won’t Be Drafted In First Round
Day 1 of NFL Draft (First Round)
Thursday, April 23 at 8 p.m. ET on ABC, ESPN, and NFL Network at Virtual Location
Wil AJ Epenesa be a 1st Round Pick?
AJ Epenesa’s draft stock has, for good reason, taken a considerable hit. That good reason is his combine results.
His combine was historically bad. Most glaringly, he ran his 40-yard dash in 5.04 seconds and his 10-yard split was 1.81 seconds.
These results add to preexisting worries about his speed and athleticism. He lacks necessary weapons to be an effective edge rusher.
As for history, consider that of all the pass rushers who have achieved at least one 10-sack season in the past decade, only two had produced a 40-yard dash of over five seconds at the combine.
This historical trend is sure to continue as opposing offensive tackles and quarterbacks become more mobile. The NFL has become a passing league and it’s asking for quicker quarterbacks and pass-blockers.
Epenesa finds himself in positional no-man’s land because, at 275 pounds, he lacks the size to switch to defensive tackle.
In sum, he’s too small and too slow. You can coach technique. But you can’t coach the physical tools that he naturally lacks.
Based on need and drafting order, Minnesota and Seattle seem like the most realistic candidates to take him in the first round.
Now, it’s easy to think that neither team would select any edge rusher with a first-round pick.
This is a weak class at the position. Plus, proven studs are available outside of the draft.
To name a couple: Seattle may not re-sign Jadeveon Clowney.
Also, Yannick Ngakoue is picking fights and throwing fits on Twitter and doing his best Jalen Ramsey impression to demand a trade and find a way out of Jacksonville.
Besides, Yetur Gross-Matos seems like a much better candidate to succeed in the NFL.
He doesn’t come with the damning sort of worries that are tagged to Epenesa.
On the one hand, Gross-Matos possesses the explosiveness and, based on his recorded measurements, the length to disrupt opposing tackles in a 4-3 scheme.
On the other hand, his versatility would also make him a candidate to play linebacker in a 3-4 scheme.
Best Bet: Will AJ Epenesa be a 1st Round Pick? No (+125) with BetOnline
Jordan Love Draft Position
There are three teams who need a quarterback and need one right away.
Those are: the Bengals, Dolphins, and Chargers.
Fittingly for them, the top three quarterback prospects seem clear-cut.
Joe Burrow will go to Cincinnati and Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa will be selected by either the Dolphins or the Chargers.
Without any other teams who are desperate for a quarterback, it’s hard to imagine one using a first-round pick to select a quarterback after Burrow, Herbert, or Tua.
While the Patriots may be viewed as a team that’s desperate for a quarterback, they’ve always made it explicit that they want to trust Jarrett Stidham… at least for now.
Anyhow, they signed Brian Hoyer to offer some veteran presence.
Still, they may want to invest in Love in case Stidham doesn’t fulfill expectations. After all, while Stidham did have a top-notch preseason according to PFF’s advanced stats, it’s only preseason.
Even if the Patriots do select Love, they have the 23rd pick. I am betting on Love to be drafted past the 19th pick.
There is one team ahead of New England who could take Love. And that’s Jacksonville.
The Jaguars always take the best available player available.
This strategy was apparent, for example, in last year’s draft when they selected Josh Allen despite already being well-stocked at the position.
With the cornerback and offensive tackle positions loaded, it seems promising that the Jaguars will find somebody from either position to be the best available.
Even if they do want Love, Jacksonville has the 20th pick. So the „over“ 19.5 still hits.
Within the first 20 picks, the most realistic team to select Love would probably be the Raiders. Despite possessing both Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota, they may not be fully satisfied at the position.
But they have way more pressing needs — wide receiver and, after failing to sign Eli Apple, cornerback.
So, because I love Love to land in the second round, the „over“ at 19.5 is eminently reasonable.
Best Bet: J. Love draft position over 19.5 (-170) with 5Dimes
Highest Drafted Running Back
BetOnline offers a fascinating prop betting opportunity with great NFL odds:
Which running back will be picked first: JK Dobbins, (-135) Clyde Edwards-Helaire, (+140) or Cam Akers (+625).
This bet will come down to Dobbins and Edwards-Helaire, both of whom are firmly projected as second-round picks.
With Dobbins chalked at -135, there is negligible value in him.
The biggest concern with the former Buckeye product is his ability to be a three-down back.
In particular, scouts and other experts consistently cite pass-blocking and route-running as two areas where he’s either lacking or extremely unrefined.
Compare him, in this regard, to Edwards-Helaire, who was a significant pass-catching threat at LSU.
Last season, he caught 55 passes for 453 yards and a touchdown.
It’s therefore on third down where Edwards-Helaire separates himself from Dobbins.
https://twitter.com/grant_kauvar/status/1185940913425731585?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1185940913425731585&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.arrowheadpride.com%2F2020%2F4%2F21%2F21229052%2F23-days-of-draftmas-clyde-edwards-helaire
The former LSU product has been linked to several different teams because he’s more adaptable than Dobbins.
Dobbins, who wants to play in an offense that emphasizes zone rushing, is more scheme-specific.
Detroit is one team that picks early in the second round and that would love to have Edwards-Helaire.
The Lions have some question marks at the running back position because of issues with productivity and durability to stay on the field.
Their top two backs — Kerryon Johnson and Bo Scarbrough — are stylistically power backs.
As somebody who brings added threat catching passes, Edwards-Helaire would complement them wonderfully.
This is especially true since Detroit needs to replace its former top third-down back, J.D. McKissic, who is now with the Redskins.
Best Bet: Clyde Edwards-Helaire To Be Drafted Higher Than Dobbins and Akers (+140) with BetOnline
Day 1 of NFL Draft (First Round)
Thursday, April 23 at 8 p.m. ET on ABC, ESPN, and NFL Network at Virtual Location
Wil AJ Epenesa be a 1st Round Pick?
AJ Epenesa’s draft stock has, for good reason, taken a considerable hit. That good reason is his combine results.
His combine was historically bad. Most glaringly, he ran his 40-yard dash in 5.04 seconds and his 10-yard split was 1.81 seconds.
These results add to preexisting worries about his speed and athleticism. He lacks necessary weapons to be an effective edge rusher.
As for history, consider that of all the pass rushers who have achieved at least one 10-sack season in the past decade, only two had produced a 40-yard dash of over five seconds at the combine.
This historical trend is sure to continue as opposing offensive tackles and quarterbacks become more mobile. The NFL has become a passing league and it’s asking for quicker quarterbacks and pass-blockers.
Epenesa finds himself in positional no-man’s land because, at 275 pounds, he lacks the size to switch to defensive tackle.
In sum, he’s too small and too slow. You can coach technique. But you can’t coach the physical tools that he naturally lacks.
Based on need and drafting order, Minnesota and Seattle seem like the most realistic candidates to take him in the first round.
Now, it’s easy to think that neither team would select any edge rusher with a first-round pick.
This is a weak class at the position. Plus, proven studs are available outside of the draft.
To name a couple: Seattle may not re-sign Jadeveon Clowney.
Also, Yannick Ngakoue is picking fights and throwing fits on Twitter and doing his best Jalen Ramsey impression to demand a trade and find a way out of Jacksonville.
Besides, Yetur Gross-Matos seems like a much better candidate to succeed in the NFL.
He doesn’t come with the damning sort of worries that are tagged to Epenesa.
On the one hand, Gross-Matos possesses the explosiveness and, based on his recorded measurements, the length to disrupt opposing tackles in a 4-3 scheme.
On the other hand, his versatility would also make him a candidate to play linebacker in a 3-4 scheme.
Best Bet: Will AJ Epenesa be a 1st Round Pick? No (+125) with BetOnline
Jordan Love Draft Position
There are three teams who need a quarterback and need one right away.
Those are: the Bengals, Dolphins, and Chargers.
Fittingly for them, the top three quarterback prospects seem clear-cut.
Joe Burrow will go to Cincinnati and Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa will be selected by either the Dolphins or the Chargers.
Without any other teams who are desperate for a quarterback, it’s hard to imagine one using a first-round pick to select a quarterback after Burrow, Herbert, or Tua.
While the Patriots may be viewed as a team that’s desperate for a quarterback, they’ve always made it explicit that they want to trust Jarrett Stidham… at least for now.
Anyhow, they signed Brian Hoyer to offer some veteran presence.
Still, they may want to invest in Love in case Stidham doesn’t fulfill expectations. After all, while Stidham did have a top-notch preseason according to PFF’s advanced stats, it’s only preseason.
Even if the Patriots do select Love, they have the 23rd pick. I am betting on Love to be drafted past the 19th pick.
There is one team ahead of New England who could take Love. And that’s Jacksonville.
The Jaguars always take the best available player available.
This strategy was apparent, for example, in last year’s draft when they selected Josh Allen despite already being well-stocked at the position.
With the cornerback and offensive tackle positions loaded, it seems promising that the Jaguars will find somebody from either position to be the best available.
Even if they do want Love, Jacksonville has the 20th pick. So the „over“ 19.5 still hits.
Within the first 20 picks, the most realistic team to select Love would probably be the Raiders. Despite possessing both Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota, they may not be fully satisfied at the position.
But they have way more pressing needs — wide receiver and, after failing to sign Eli Apple, cornerback.
So, because I love Love to land in the second round, the „over“ at 19.5 is eminently reasonable.
Best Bet: J. Love draft position over 19.5 (-170) with 5Dimes
Highest Drafted Running Back
BetOnline offers a fascinating prop betting opportunity with great NFL odds:
Which running back will be picked first: JK Dobbins, (-135) Clyde Edwards-Helaire, (+140) or Cam Akers (+625).
This bet will come down to Dobbins and Edwards-Helaire, both of whom are firmly projected as second-round picks.
With Dobbins chalked at -135, there is negligible value in him.
The biggest concern with the former Buckeye product is his ability to be a three-down back.
In particular, scouts and other experts consistently cite pass-blocking and route-running as two areas where he’s either lacking or extremely unrefined.
Compare him, in this regard, to Edwards-Helaire, who was a significant pass-catching threat at LSU.
Last season, he caught 55 passes for 453 yards and a touchdown.
It’s therefore on third down where Edwards-Helaire separates himself from Dobbins.
https://twitter.com/grant_kauvar/status/1185940913425731585?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1185940913425731585&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.arrowheadpride.com%2F2020%2F4%2F21%2F21229052%2F23-days-of-draftmas-clyde-edwards-helaire
The former LSU product has been linked to several different teams because he’s more adaptable than Dobbins.
Dobbins, who wants to play in an offense that emphasizes zone rushing, is more scheme-specific.
Detroit is one team that picks early in the second round and that would love to have Edwards-Helaire.
The Lions have some question marks at the running back position because of issues with productivity and durability to stay on the field.
Their top two backs — Kerryon Johnson and Bo Scarbrough — are stylistically power backs.
As somebody who brings added threat catching passes, Edwards-Helaire would complement them wonderfully.
This is especially true since Detroit needs to replace its former top third-down back, J.D. McKissic, who is now with the Redskins.
Best Bet: Clyde Edwards-Helaire To Be Drafted Higher Than Dobbins and Akers (+140) with BetOnline
