Player Props Week 2 Discussion

[He Hate Me]

What do you like this week? Hopefully, this week will go better than last.
I just started looking at these and I do not see anything for tonight.

I kinda like Isiah Bond TD +194 (FD)
Watching the Tex Col St game, Bond just finds open areas in the defense and settles down there when Ewers is creating time in the pocket, moving around, etc. Also, Bond was the leading receiver for Ala against Mich last year in the NC game. You would think he is familiar with what Mich will want to do with their DBs and probably wants a little revenge from being so close and losing to Mich last year.

Thoughts @B.A.R. , I know you don't want to think about Texas scoring any TDs but when they do will it be more likely on the ground or through the air?
What are the question marks in the Mich defense?

 

[B.A.R.]

What do you like this week? Hopefully, this week will go better than last.
I just started looking at these and I do not see anything for tonight.

I kinda like Isiah Bond TD +194 (FD)
Watching the Tex Col St game, Bond just finds open areas in the defense and settles down there when Ewers is creating time in the pocket, moving around, etc. Also, Bond was the leading receiver for Ala against Mich last year in the NC game. You would think he is familiar with what Mich will want to do with their DBs and probably wants a little revenge from being so close and losing to Mich last year.

Thoughts @B.A.R. , I know you don't want to think about Texas scoring any TDs but when they do will it be more likely on the ground or through the air?

Definitely think through the air will be their scores. The Michigan defense is nasty, again, but with Wink being so aggressive there will be a few plays to be made in passing game.

Settle in middle and then break up the seam is the best route. Will J and Hill at CB are not guys you want to test over and over.

 

[B.A.R.]

Tell ya what, I missed out last week.

Apparently spots like DK still had Orji props up on Friday. Despite both playing was known, he wasn't going to be featured passing all that much....

Never thought about props being available for him.

 

[BiffTFinancial]

Colston Loveland rec yards over 42' seems worth a look - he's UM's best option through the air and they're going to have to do something to back Horns out of the box. D Edwards rush yards under 50', K Mullings rush yards over 53' and Jaydon Blue rec yards over 21' also look promising. I think Mullings is the better back at this point and Edwards will ultimately find himself as the second option. With Blue, I think Horns struggle to run vs UM front (everyone else does) and Sark will find ways to get the ball in his hands out of the backfield rather then sending him into the teeth of UM's strength.

 

[V.K.]

I went with Ewers +250 yds passing @ +110. 1 unit play DK
Michigan run D looks too good, Horns will be passing.

Bad side of this play is say Ewers is off and throws an early pic or Michigan dings Ewers up, in comes Manning, Or Mich offense chews clock.
Chance ya take.

You can also get Ewers 239+ yds at -115 or 225+ I believe at -175.

 

[He Hate Me]

Colston Loveland rec yards over 42' seems worth a look - he's UM's best option through the air and they're going to have to do something to back Horns out of the box. D Edwards rush yards under 50', K Mullings rush yards over 53' and Jaydon Blue rec yards over 21' also look promising. I think Mullings is the better back at this point and Edwards will ultimately find himself as the second option. With Blue, I think Horns struggle to run vs UM front (everyone else does) and Sark will find ways to get the ball in his hands out of the backfield rather then sending him into the teeth of UM's strength.

After the Col St game I don't think I know anything more about the Tex D than I did before. I thought the defensive backfield looked the part as far as not blowing coverages and they look fast. I thought that the d-line played well with all of the new faces. They put some pressure on the Col St QB but had no sacks. They seemed to have the run bottled up but no tackles for loss.

 

[2daBank]

I got another late start but putting in real work tonight I’ll have some stuff in morning

 

[2daBank]

I went with Ewers +250 yds passing @ +110. 1 unit play DK
Michigan run D looks too good, Horns will be passing.

Bad side of this play is say Ewers is off and throws an early pic or Michigan dings Ewers up, in comes Manning, Or Mich offense chews clock.
Chance ya take.

You can also get Ewers 239+ yds at -115 or 225+ I believe at -175.

I dint have great feel but kinda tempted to just play Edwards 16+ rec then like 40+ at +450 in case he takes swing pass to the house. Loveland number tricky cause if Texas can score early throwing then I would think they could take Loveland away, at least fewer than his pretty big number (for a te!) if mich keeps it low and slow and is able to lean on Texas to where the d has to overcommit to the run then Loveland should roast them, Total kinda screams it played more to Michigan liking Edwards feels safer cause I can’t imagine they don’t at least throw him a couple out into space. He worthless being lead back he has no vision! Sure he can hit a home run but better chance w pass imo,

 

[BiffTFinancial]

After the Col St game I don't think I know anything more about the Tex D than I did before. I thought the defensive backfield looked the part as far as not blowing coverages and they look fast. I thought that the d-line played well with all of the new faces. They put some pressure on the Col St QB but had no sacks. They seemed to have the run bottled up but no tackles for loss.

Yeah, CSU not the kind of team that will tell you much about a team’s run D - we’ll know way more early this afternoon, can’t wait.

 

[BiffTFinancial]

I dint have great feel but kinda tempted to just play Edwards 16+ rec then like 40+ at +450 in case he takes swing pass to the house. Loveland number tricky cause if Texas can score early throwing then I would think they could take Loveland away, at least fewer than his pretty big number (for a te!) if mich keeps it low and slow and is able to lean on Texas to where the d has to overcommit to the run then Loveland should roast them, Total kinda screams it played more to Michigan liking Edwards feels safer cause I can’t imagine they don’t at least throw him a couple out into space. He worthless being lead back he has no vision! Sure he can hit a home run but better chance w pass imo,

Agree completely re: Edwards vision and rec > rush with him. Good stuff, Bank.

 

[2daBank]

So I really like the Gtech/cuse game, seems cuse Is super trendy and I def lean that way but I think it prob gonna be super close at the end, think I have a decent feel how both these teams gonna move the ball and I’ll say this much if you thinking bout backing Gtech this game was awful damn close last year and everyone knew cuse couldn’t throw a forward pass, that a pretty big deal in any game but against a Gtech team who has a incredibly vulnerable secondary it double tough. I know it was just Ohio last week but think it pretty obvious cuse at least can threaten teams thru the air now with McCord at qb, better blocking and couple guys I don’t think Gtech can cover. On the other side Gtech should be able to gash this cuse d on the ground, they play that 3-3-5 I just think is easy to get numbers in the run game against, last week Ohio had a back go for 200+, normally I’m a King prop guy and if game script gets away from me this could be a mistake but I think Haynes has a big day on the ground.

Gadsdan 73+ rec yards
Allen 20+ rec

Haynes 90+ rush
-200 to score a td is little parlay starter

 

[2daBank]

Ark
Tayler green 40+ rush yards

This kid in Patrimo offense? He gonna rush for closer to 100 than 40 imo, sacks be damned. I actually think ark has a chance here but there really isn’t a game script I don’t see this cashing.

 

[2daBank]

So I whiffed huge on this exact player in this exact game matter of fact! I thought for sure the minute Auburn hired Hugh freeze and he brought Thorne in to play qb this was gonna be a push the bal down the field take advantage Thorne arm, evenl after the super odd week 1 when they kept taking Thorne out in red zone and oddly had him running a bunch (he ain’t exactly graceful as a runner!), I still thought for sure when they went to play a Cal team vulnerable to the pass things would change, then I got a afternoon of watching them constantly rotate qb’s and Thorne prob had 15+ rushes!!! I still dunno what in the fuck Freeze was smoking? Well here we are again, the only difference is week 1 this year Thorne actually pushed the ball down the field! It doesn’t much matter the opponent as last year was against a little sister of poor also and told a different story. Thorne did still run 4x for almost 50 but again that was against a terrible team. He might take of 1-2x this game but I’m willing to give this another shot and trust we gonna see the tigers take adv Thorne ability to push the ball down the field. If I’m ever right bout this he wil destroy the regular number so think I might as well play a alt line also.

Thorne 207+ pass yards
Thorne 250+ pass yards +290

 

[2daBank]

My fav te from Iowa is back healthy after breaking my heart getting hurt while i was cashing him every week!! Now Iowa is a passing team, lol, prob not but they have a capable qb and Lachey gets his regardless cause if Iowa gonna throw he gonna be the one catching it!

Lachey 43+ rec yards

 

[He Hate Me]

Ark
Tayler green 40+ rush yards

This kid in Patrimo offense? He gonna rush for closer to 100 than 40 imo, sacks be damned. I actually think ark has a chance here but there really isn’t a game script I don’t see this cashing.

Yeah, this is my favorite play today.
I found 35.5 & 36.5 at a couple of books last night (Bovada & FD) for 3.75 units. Both still have 36.5 today, but Bovada has a low limit.
I also played the alt totals of o50 +185 (1 unit) and 060 +285 (0.5 unit) both at DK

 

[He Hate Me]

So I really like the Gtech/cuse game, seems cuse Is super trendy and I def lean that way but I think it prob gonna be super close at the end, think I have a decent feel how both these teams gonna move the ball and I’ll say this much if you thinking bout backing Gtech this game was awful damn close last year and everyone knew cuse couldn’t throw a forward pass, that a pretty big deal in any game but against a Gtech team who has a incredibly vulnerable secondary it double tough. I know it was just Ohio last week but think it pretty obvious cuse at least can threaten teams thru the air now with McCord at qb, better blocking and couple guys I don’t think Gtech can cover. On the other side Gtech should be able to gash this cuse d on the ground, they play that 3-3-5 I just think is easy to get numbers in the run game against, last week Ohio had a back go for 200+, normally I’m a King prop guy and if game script gets away from me this could be a mistake but I think Haynes has a big day on the ground.

Gadsdan 73+ rec yards
Allen 20+ rec

Haynes 90+ rush
-200 to score a td is little parlay starter

I like Gadsden today. He is kinda forgotten since he was injured last year and should have a better year with McCord than his last full year in 2022 when he would have cashed this number in 7 out of 11 games.

If you have ESPN Bet his total is 67.5.

 

[DapperDan]

Thanks Bank and good luck!

 

[2daBank]

I like Gadsden today. He is kinda forgotten since he was injured last year and should have a better year with McCord than his last full year in 2022 when he would have cashed this number in 7 out of 11 games.

If you have ESPN Bet his total is 67.5.

I been so busy with life shit @KJ was telling me I needed them also, I’ve played w them before but didnt live the app, usually betting on phone and can’t see fuck with this cataract and I been so far behind im barely getting baseball in and capping football last night. Hoping things settle down some this week, they took her off the experimental med shit that was making wife really sick so think she start at least moving a bit again! Anyways If things stop breaking and I actually got caught up with all the house shit then I’ll move some money around this week and have them as one my outs again, just ain’t had the time yet. I’m barely gonna see games update, maybe hear, gotta clean all the water damage that destroyed ceiling below the toilet that went nuts! Shit never ends, was just starting yard when that happened so I sprayed everything dead and havnt been back outside to clear it out and mow everything yet, shooting for 2marro for that, I really don’t care bout nfl! Lol

 

[2daBank]

Far as the number today obviously I’d like a better one but I played some Gadsden alt numbers also so not terribly worried, still dumb not getting a better number if I can. I hate when life interferes with my fantasy of only doing this! Lol

 

[He Hate Me]

Yeah, this is my favorite play today.
I found 35.5 & 36.5 at a couple of books last night (Bovada & FD) for 3.75 units. Both still have 36.5 today, but Bovada has a low limit.
I also played the alt totals of o50 +185 (1 unit) and 060 +285 (0.5 unit) both at DK

I have added 2.5 units to this over 36.5

I have these so far:
Taylen Green over 35.5 & 36.5 rushing (-110 to -115) (6.25 units)
Taylen Green over 50 rushing +185 (1 unit)
Taylen Green over 60 rushing +285 (0.5 unit)
Gadsden over 67.5 receiving -118 (2 units)
Lachy over 43.5 receiving -118 (2 units) tailing @2daBank
Isiah Bond TD +194 (1 unit)
Malachi Fields over 70.5 receiving -114 (2 units)

 

[B.A.R.]

I have added 2.5 units to this over 36.5

I have these so far:
Taylen Green over 35.5 & 36.5 rushing (-110 to -115) (6.25 units)
Taylen Green over 50 rushing +185 (1 unit)
Taylen Green over 60 rushing +285 (0.5 unit)
Gadsden over 67.5 receiving -118 (2 units)
Lachy over 43.5 receiving -118 (2 units) tailing @2daBank
Isiah Bond TD +194 (1 unit)
Malachi Fields over 70.5 receiving -114 (2 units)

Good luck HHM!

 

[2daBank]

Adding both the Johnson backs for Nebraska 50+ rushing each plus money, feel good one of them hits, maybe both can I just have no clue how to know so give me the plus on both. Corn won’t have a god awful turnover machine playing qb this year, think the kid they bought and paid for will keep them on schedule. Last year corn still ran for 200+ despite that Moron Simms turning it over time after time killing Rhule game plan, pretty confident he still wants to lean on this team and keep their offense on the sideline, this year he not only has a qb who won’t turn it over 4x I aka I think can pick up big 3rd downs to keep them on script hammering away. If game script plays right both these guys could eat

 

[2daBank]

Vols qb can’t spell or say his name 258+ passing yards

 

[B.A.R.]

Vols qb can’t spell or say his name 258+ passing yards

Nico!!

 

[2daBank]

Nico!!

Never been a ncst guy. Im vols everything. Qb, team total, -9

 

[2daBank]

Yeah, this is my favorite play today.
I found 35.5 & 36.5 at a couple of books last night (Bovada & FD) for 3.75 units. Both still have 36.5 today, but Bovada has a low limit.
I also played the alt totals of o50 +185 (1 unit) and 060 +285 (0.5 unit) both at DK

Yep I love when they miss so bad. Although the Mfer been going backwards since half!

 

[2daBank]

Wasn’t green at around 80 rushing in 1st half and then you gotta watch him guve some his alt numbers back? Ain’t that a bitch, can’t believe those clowns blew that game

 

[2daBank]

Had arky and Tulane ml’s. Fuckers

 

[He Hate Me]

Wasn’t green at around 80 rushing in 1st half and then you gotta watch him guve some his alt numbers back? Ain’t that a bitch, can’t believe those clowns blew that game

His rushing total was around 75 or 77 in the 3rd quarter. Two big sacks at the end of regulation knocked off about 17 yards. He had two mishandled snaps in the 2nd half that lost about 5 yards each.

 

[He Hate Me]

Gonna play this in the Marshall/VT game:

2 units:
Benji Gosnell over 24.5 yards receiving -115 (Bet365)

The starting TE is still out, Nick Gallo. Gosnell had his best game last year against Marshall, as a freshmen with 52 yards receiving. He was not the starting TE that game, Daequan Wright was, who has transferred. As bad as Drones played at times last week against Vandy, he still had 322 yards passing and Benji Gosnell had 61 yards receiving. The other 2 TEs on the roster did not have a catch last week.

 

[cubsker]

Adding both the Johnson backs for Nebraska 50+ rushing each plus money, feel good one of them hits, maybe both can I just have no clue how to know so give me the plus on both. Corn won’t have a god awful turnover machine playing qb this year, think the kid they bought and paid for will keep them on schedule. Last year corn still ran for 200+ despite that Moron Simms turning it over time after time killing Rhule game plan, pretty confident he still wants to lean on this team and keep their offense on the sideline, this year he not only has a qb who won’t turn it over 4x I aka I think can pick up big 3rd downs to keep them on script hammering away. If game script plays right both these guys could eat

I just played E. Johnson at 39.5. Think he's the better overall player. Also took Bonner over 21.5 receiving. Starting in the slot and I think there are some opportunities there against this defense based on what I saw last week.

 

[He Hate Me]

Vols qb can’t spell or say his name 258+ passing yards

Tailing you on this. I found 256.5 -121 at Bookmaker

 

[B.A.R.]

I just played E. Johnson at 39.5. Think he's the better overall player. Also took Bonner over 21.5 receiving. Starting in the slot and I think there are some opportunities there against this defense based on what I saw last week.

Noted

 

[2daBank]

Tailing you on this. I found 256.5 -121 at Bookmaker

I honestly don’t know anything bout him just a play on the coaching staffs, how vols coach calls games, the fact they superior to a team I find always gets more respect than they deserve, I think vols blast these guys, I guess the concern be he doesn’t need to throw after half? Anytime they have a qb to operate the offense it pretty much impossible to stop.

 

[He Hate Me]

I honestly don’t know anything bout him just a play on the coaching staffs, how vols coach calls games, the fact they superior to a team I find always gets more respect than they deserve, I think vols blast these guys, I guess the concern be he doesn’t need to throw after half? Anytime they have a qb to operate the offense it pretty much impossible to stop.

Yeah, my only worry is that NCSU's all everything LB, Wilson is not there this year so Tenn may be able to move the ball on the ground early and just keep on doing that until the end of the game.

 

[He Hate Me]

I have added 2.5 units to this over 36.5

I have these so far:
Taylen Green over 35.5 & 36.5 rushing (-110 to -115) (6.25 units)
Taylen Green over 50 rushing +185 (1 unit)
Taylen Green over 60 rushing +285 (0.5 unit)
Gadsden over 67.5 receiving -118 (2 units)
Lachy over 43.5 receiving -118 (2 units) tailing @2daBank
Isiah Bond TD +194 (1 unit)
Malachi Fields over 70.5 receiving -114 (2 units)

A couple of observations on some of these games/players since I watched most of the games that I had player props on.

We will never get that low of a Green rushing number again. He lost 15+ rushing yards due to not handling the snap and having to fall on the ball. He also lost some big sack yardage. He will need to clean these things up to exceed future numbers.

The Gadsden prop cashed but the Cuse have a deep receiver room and McCord spread the ball around. Gadsden is the biggest target and McCord looked at him as the primary receiver on 3rd down plays and snaps inside the 20 yard line. I don't think he will put up big numbers in noncompetitive games.

I watched the 1st half of the UVA game and Colandera was focused on Fields. It looks like Fields will replace one of my favorite players to bet last year, Washington. As long as Colandrea is starting, Fields will put up big numbers.

I watched the Tex game and I think all 3 other receivers had a TD except Bond. Bad luck.

 

[He Hate Me]

Gonna play this in the Marshall/VT game:

2 units:
Benji Gosnell over 24.5 yards receiving -115 (Bet365)

The starting TE is still out, Nick Gallo. Gosnell had his best game last year against Marshall, as a freshmen with 52 yards receiving. He was not the starting TE that game, Daequan Wright was, who has transferred. As bad as Drones played at times last week against Vandy, he still had 322 yards passing and Benji Gosnell had 61 yards receiving. The other 2 TEs on the roster did not have a catch last week.

Drones was horrible again and he did not put up big numbers in the 2nd half like he did against Vandy because VT had a lead and they pretty much just ran the ball. I use CBS to track my in game player prop stats and Benji caught a 5 yard pass on the first drive and CBS showed his brother, Stephen with those yards. The Virginia Tech website box score showed the correct stats for both Gosnell brothers. It ended up not mattering because Drones did not throw a pass to Gosnell or mostly to anyone in the second half.

Regarding VT, they came out and played a conservative and flat first half again for the second week in a row and a much better second half. It appears on defense that they cannot make any on the fly adjustments and have to wait until halftime. I was listening to a Bud Foster interview and he was saying that his success as D coordinator was due to his ability to see things and adjust on the spot. I wonder if he was inferring that this Brett Pry team is not capable of doing that.

Anyway, until further notice it will probably be wise to bet against VT in the first half of games and maybe on them at halftime.

VT travels to ODU this weekend and ODU is always up to play VT. The first half line should be around 7 and I will be playing it.

Marshall is a weird team on offense. They want to run a lot of plays and the air raid offense and don't appear to have the personnel to do so. Maybe they will have success against bad defenses.