Best NBA Player Props Today
Michael Porter Jr. under 19.5 points (-125) at BetMGM
Brooklyn Nets vs. Charlotte Hornets, 7 p.m. ET
This posted point total is too high. Michael Porter Jr. is averaging 18.8 points per game. You might think that, given a propitious matchup, he’ll easily get just two more points. But consider the extent to which he is overachieving. He is scoring as many points as he is while converting 50 percent of his three-point attempts. This three-point conversion rate is unsustainably high. Since Brooklyn isn’t an up-tempo team like Memphis, I don’t get where the shooting volume is supposed to come from. For example, Dallas’ Klay Thompson made four of his seven three-point attempts against the Hornets and still came away with only 14 points. The Hornets are also coming off a game against New York in which their defense achieved a lot to build off of. Only superstar Jalen Brunson scored more than 16 points against them.
Lonzo Ball over 7.5 points at -110 with BetMGM
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. New York Knicks, 7 p.m. ET
If you’re worrying about playing the “over” on a lesser-known Cleveland guard’s point total, recall that this is the preseason. Cleveland is not going to want to run Donovan Mitchell into the ground quite yet, so other guards are going to get extensive playing time. Most recently, Lonzo Ball played 20 minutes against Detroit and scored nine points. Ball’s outlook against New York’s defense is strong. The Knicks most recently looked very bad against Charlotte’s guards. Collin Sexton amassed 21 points against them. Kon Knueppel and fellow rookie Liam McNeeley scored twelve and eleven points, respectively, despite going a combined 2-for-12 from behind the arc. Ball, as someone with a ton of starting experience who averages over eleven points per game in the regular season, is good enough to succeed in this favorable matchup where backups like him will keep getting more playing time.
Duncan Robinson under 11.5 points at -105 with BetMGM
Detroit Pistons vs. Chicago Bulls, 8 p.m. ET
This point total is too high in view of what Duncan Robinson has proven able (or rather unable) to accomplish in preseason play. It is true that the minutes are there for him, but minutes do not automatically entail productivity. For example, against Cleveland he played 21 minutes but scored all of three points. He has yet to score more than ten points in a preseason game thus far. His outlook is all the weaker going up against a Chicago defense that enters this game with recent success defending against forwards in general. For example, the Bulls faced Cam Johnson of Denver who, like Robinson, is known as a forward who likes to attempt threes. Against Chicago, Johnson converted half of his three-point attempts but still failed to exceed eleven points. I just don’t see a basis for thinking that Robinson reaches twelve points in this matchup.
Michael Porter Jr. under 19.5 points (-125) at BetMGM
Brooklyn Nets vs. Charlotte Hornets, 7 p.m. ET
This posted point total is too high. Michael Porter Jr. is averaging 18.8 points per game. You might think that, given a propitious matchup, he’ll easily get just two more points. But consider the extent to which he is overachieving. He is scoring as many points as he is while converting 50 percent of his three-point attempts. This three-point conversion rate is unsustainably high. Since Brooklyn isn’t an up-tempo team like Memphis, I don’t get where the shooting volume is supposed to come from. For example, Dallas’ Klay Thompson made four of his seven three-point attempts against the Hornets and still came away with only 14 points. The Hornets are also coming off a game against New York in which their defense achieved a lot to build off of. Only superstar Jalen Brunson scored more than 16 points against them.
Lonzo Ball over 7.5 points at -110 with BetMGM
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. New York Knicks, 7 p.m. ET
If you’re worrying about playing the “over” on a lesser-known Cleveland guard’s point total, recall that this is the preseason. Cleveland is not going to want to run Donovan Mitchell into the ground quite yet, so other guards are going to get extensive playing time. Most recently, Lonzo Ball played 20 minutes against Detroit and scored nine points. Ball’s outlook against New York’s defense is strong. The Knicks most recently looked very bad against Charlotte’s guards. Collin Sexton amassed 21 points against them. Kon Knueppel and fellow rookie Liam McNeeley scored twelve and eleven points, respectively, despite going a combined 2-for-12 from behind the arc. Ball, as someone with a ton of starting experience who averages over eleven points per game in the regular season, is good enough to succeed in this favorable matchup where backups like him will keep getting more playing time.
Duncan Robinson under 11.5 points at -105 with BetMGM
Detroit Pistons vs. Chicago Bulls, 8 p.m. ET
This point total is too high in view of what Duncan Robinson has proven able (or rather unable) to accomplish in preseason play. It is true that the minutes are there for him, but minutes do not automatically entail productivity. For example, against Cleveland he played 21 minutes but scored all of three points. He has yet to score more than ten points in a preseason game thus far. His outlook is all the weaker going up against a Chicago defense that enters this game with recent success defending against forwards in general. For example, the Bulls faced Cam Johnson of Denver who, like Robinson, is known as a forward who likes to attempt threes. Against Chicago, Johnson converted half of his three-point attempts but still failed to exceed eleven points. I just don’t see a basis for thinking that Robinson reaches twelve points in this matchup.
