Player Prop Thread

braves

braves

Pretty much a regular
Throw them all in here once they start coming out :goal:

[TABLE="class: lines"]
[TR]
[TH="class: linesHeader, colspan: 2, align: left"]World Cup Golden Boot Award Winner 2014
Thu 6/12 7:00AM[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Lionel Messi[/TD]
[TD] +800[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Neymar[/TD]
[TD] +1300[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Luis Suarez[/TD]
[TD] +1600[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Sergio Aguero[/TD]
[TD] +1600[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Cristiano Ronaldo[/TD]
[TD] +1650[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Diego Costa[/TD]
[TD] +2350[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Gonzalo Higuain[/TD]
[TD] +2550[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Karim Benzema[/TD]
[TD] +3450[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Thomas Muller[/TD]
[TD] +3600[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Alvaro Negredo[/TD]
[TD] +4000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Romelu Lukaku[/TD]
[TD] +4200[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Robin Van Persie[/TD]
[TD] +4400[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Radamel Falcao[/TD]
[TD] +4800[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Hulk[/TD]
[TD] +5000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Edinson Cavani[/TD]
[TD] +5000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Mario Gomez[/TD]
[TD] +5000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Wayne Rooney[/TD]
[TD] +6500[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Daniel Sturridge[/TD]
[TD] +6500[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Franck Ribery[/TD]
[TD] +6500[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Mario Balotelli[/TD]
[TD] +7000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Arjen Robben[/TD]
[TD] +7000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]David Villa[/TD]
[TD] +7000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Olivier Giroud[/TD]
[TD] +7000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Klaas Jan Huntelaar[/TD]
[TD] +7000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Robinho[/TD]
[TD] +7000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Marco Reus[/TD]
[TD] +7000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Christian Benteke[/TD]
[TD] +7500[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Fernando Torres[/TD]
[TD] +7500[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Eden Hazard[/TD]
[TD] +7500[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Max Kruse[/TD]
[TD] +8000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Oscar[/TD]
[TD] +8000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Ezequiel Lavezzi[/TD]
[TD] +8000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Jackson Martinez[/TD]
[TD] +8000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Lukas Podolski[/TD]
[TD] +8000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Roberto Soldado[/TD]
[TD] +8000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Mario Goetze[/TD]
[TD] +8000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Alexis Sanchez[/TD]
[TD] +8000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Giuseppe Rossi[/TD]
[TD] +8000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Edin Dzeko[/TD]
[TD] +9000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Andre Schurrle[/TD]
[TD] +9500[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Miroslav Klose[/TD]
[TD] +10000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Jeremain Lens[/TD]
[TD] +10000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Cesc Fabregas[/TD]
[TD] +10000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Michu[/TD]
[TD] +10000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Mesut Ozil[/TD]
[TD] +10000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Arturo Vidal[/TD]
[TD] +10000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Diego Forlan[/TD]
[TD] +10000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesFuturesRow, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]
[TD]Isco[/TD]
[TD] +13000[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]




 
If someone knows of the pk takers for the top teams, post them in here. That would be very helpful
 
braves said:
If someone knows of the pk takers for the top teams, post them in here. That would be very helpful
Click to expand...

You can eliminate half the list, pretty most know who they are by process...

Brazil - Neymar, but hard to guess because Im sure the will rotate players
Germany - Mueller, Gomez, Schweinsteiger
Italy - Ballotelli, Pirlo, Di Natali
England - Lampard, Rooney, Gerrard
Spain - Xavi, Iniesta
Mexico - Hernandez, Fabian, Peralta (if on the team)
Ivory Coast - Drogba
Holland - RVP, Sneidjer, Robber, Van der Vaart (add in Huntelaar and they have ~125 total goals between them, rest of current team has 8)
Belgium - Hazard, Lukaku
Portugal - Ronaldo
Uruguay - Cavani, Suarez

Instead of typing all out, probably find something through opta or squawka.
 
It's actually harder than it should. Few website rank pks for club teams. The only 2 ways I see now are through transfermarkt (filter by golden shoe, and then look for the full player performance) or through soccerway (total goal scorers list from each league).
 
ya he took their only penalty during the game at the Euro's

was first pk taker against Portugal

only spanish pk's not taken by him the last 4 years were done by Villa in games ALonso wasn't playing in
 
Neymar/Messi/Aguero could have 4-5 before the knockout rounds. If I was going to bet it, Id probably take one of them.

I like the individual o/u goal prop bets better. Those probably won't be out till much closer to the tourney
 
I think
Suarez @ +1600
Ronaldo @ +1650
Lukaku @ +4200
Balotelli @ +7000
Martinez (if Falcao is definitely out) @ +8000

present the best value.

Those guys are pretty much the key attacking option upfront. I think Suarez has himself a very good tourney.
Lukaku is the only real striking threat for the Belgians
Ronaldo...well he does practically everything by himself ha.
Balo as much as I hate this fucker he seems to be in the right place at the right time...pretty much a poacher.
Martinez is a longshot but he is of quality and without Falcao he will be the main threat upfront.
 
Toronto_Mike said:
I think
Suarez @ +1600
Ronaldo @ +1650
Lukaku @ +4200
Balotelli @ +7000
Martinez (if Falcao is definitely out) @ +8000

present the best value.

Those guys are pretty much the key attacking option upfront. I think Suarez has himself a very good tourney.
Lukaku is the only real striking threat for the Belgians
Ronaldo...well he does practically everything by himself ha.
Balo as much as I hate this fucker he seems to be in the right place at the right time...pretty much a poacher.
Martinez is a longshot but he is of quality and without Falcao he will be the main threat upfront.
Click to expand...

The problem is that there is a good chance none of those guys get to the semis or even quarters for that matter. I think you need to select braZil, Argentina, or Germany guys for this bet .. Not Huge fan of this particular prop, like the individual o/u goal numbers per player better
 
braves said:
The problem is that there is a good chance none of those guys get to the semis or even quarters for that matter. I think you need to select braZil, Argentina, or Germany guys for this bet .. Not Huge fan of this particular prop, like the individual o/u goal numbers per player better
Click to expand...

i'm basing it on value, Argentina/Brasil/Germany do not have players that have value. The team is not one dimensional they have a lot of options and most of their goals will come from attacking midfielders rather than strikers.
Messi +800? Ummm no thanks
Neymar +1300?

The ones I listed are the teams primary offensive target, uruguay, portugal, belgium, italy, colombia all have good chances to progress.

At the end I think Suarez is going to be the most realistic play, considering his partnership with Cavani will be very good, he is their main attacking threat and they are in a very winnable group. I'm confident he will score against CR and have a gut feeling he will haunt England.

I agree the o/u goal per player is more ideal as you don't necessarily have to think too far ahead into matchups past the group stage. Unders are usually great bets
 
article from pinny

[h=4]This World Cup Golden Boot betting article investigates a number of factors to consider before selecting the 2014 World Cup Golden Boot betting winner. Odds for the World Cup Golden Boot can be inflated; so betting on the winner can prove profitable. Choosing the winner, however, requires more than simply identifying the best striker.[/h][h=3]The importance of the draw[/h]One of the main factors to consider when picking the 2014 World Cup Golden Boot winner is the group that the player’s nation has been drawn in. The draw highlights which teams have the weaker groups or an easier passage to the final once qualified.
Being drawn in a group with one or more perceived weaker nations is an ideal opportunity for a player to score the main proportion of their goals in the tournament. This cannot be underestimated; not only will a player expect to have more chances when playing against weak opposition, but in scoring goals early in the tournament he will gain confidence for the remainder of the World Cup.
Looking at data since the 1986 World Cup there is clear evidence that the winner of the Golden Boot scores the majority of their goals in the group stages. In analysing whether the previous eight Golden Boot winners – 1994 saw Oleg Salenko and Hristo Stoichkov share the award – scored a higher percentage of their goals in the group or knockout stage, we looked at each players minute played to goals scored average in each stage.
The results highlight that despite playing fewer minutes; the Golden Boot winners scored more goals (26) at a better average (a goal every 71 minutes) in the group stages than the knockout stages (22 goals, scoring a goal every 100.8 minutes).
[h=3]World Cup progression[/h]The completion of the 2014 World Cup draw makes it possible to predict the likely route a Golden Boot candidate’s nation will take, thereby assess how far you think their nation will go and goal-scoring opportunities.
Each nation will play a minimum of three games and a maximum of seven if they reach the semi-final. This is important, as all Golden Boot winners’ nations – apart from Oleg Salenko’s Russia in 1994 – have progressed into the knockout stages. Pitch time clearly equates to goals.
Since 1986, six of the last eight Golden Boot winners – including Salenko – have played seven games, however just one has reached the final, with the other five finishing their tournament in the third-place playoff.
Historically, the third-place playoff produces more goals than the World Cup final. In the last seven World Cup third-place playoffs, there have been an average of 4.28 goals, compared to two goals in the final.
With no major prize for the third-place playoff teams, is the Golden Boot effectively the greatest motivation for any player involved?
[h=3]Team tactics & motivation[/h]Understanding the tactics and style of play a nation employs is vital when picking a potential Golden Boot winner. Nations that create more chances are more likely to have the winner of the Golden Boot in their squad. The last winners have played for the World Cup’s highest scoring teams.
The last winners have played for the World Cup’s highest scoring teams
​
A team must also play to the player’s strengths. Just because a player is prolific for his club side doesn’t mean he is guaranteed to score plenty on the International stage. For instance Uruguay’s Edinson Cavani is considered amongst the best strikers in the world scoring on average a goal every 1.34 games since 2010 for his respective club teams, but on the international stage he struggles, finding the net on average every three games. One reason is that Cavani is instructed to lead the line and act as a foil for Luis Suarez 17.000* – who scores a goal every 1.82 games for Uruguay.
Bettors must also consider motivational factors. National managers have little specific interest in their player winning the Golden Boot award (except perhaps for the third-place Playoff, or in a game where they are winning comfortably and there is a penalty); they are solely determined, as are the other players, to win the World Cup.
If a team is winning comfortably they may substitute their star striker, or rest them if they have already qualified from the group with a game remaining. A game missed through being rested against weaker opposition, could be detrimental to their chances of winning the Golden Boot.
[h=3]Set piece specialists & favourites[/h]On average it requires six goals to claim the World Cup Golden Boot. Players taking free kicks and penalties are more prolific, which can make all the difference between winning the award and not.
Looking back at the last seven World Cups, the Golden Boot winners have scored 14.5% (7) of their goals from penalties, while just 2% (1) of winners’ goals came from free kicks. This shows that being a team’s penalty taker could prove decisive, like it was for Hristo Stoichkov in 1994 who scored three (50%) of his goals from the penalty spot. Interestingly, Sergio Aguero 19.000* has never taken a penalty in regular time for Argentina.
Golden Boot Contenders​
[TABLE="width: 665"]
[TR="class: red-header"]
[TH="align: center"]Striker[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]Nationality[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]Caps[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]Goals[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]Games Per Goal[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]Penalties[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]Penalty Success[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]Neymar[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]Brazil[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]46[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]27[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]1.7[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]100%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]Higuain[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]Argentina[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]35[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]20[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]1.75[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]100%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]Suarez[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]Uruguay[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]71[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]39[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]1.82[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]100%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]Van Persie[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]Holland[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]79[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]41[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]1.92[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]100%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]Messi[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]Argentina[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]83[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]37[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]2.24[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]9[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]88%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]Ronaldo[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]Portugal[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]109[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]47[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]2.31[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]83%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]Rooney[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]England[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]88[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]38[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]2.31[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]100%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]Balotelli[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]Italy[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]29[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]12[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]2.41[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]100%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]Aguero[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]Argentina[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]46[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]19[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]2.42[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]0%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]Falcao[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]Colombia[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]50[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]20[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]2.5[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]80%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]Benteke[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]Belgium[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]17[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]2.83[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]0%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]Muller[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]Germany[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]47[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]16[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]2.93[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]0%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]Cavani[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]Uruguay[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]60[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]20[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]100%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]Ozil[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]Germany[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]52[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]17[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]3.05[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]100%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]Hazard[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]Belgium[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]42[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]8.4[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: centre-data, align: center"]75%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Bettors may be drawn to the three heavy favourites Cristiano Ronaldo 15.000*, Lionel Messi 8.800* and Neymar 13.000*. However, apart from the Brazilian Ronaldo in 2002, none of the other seven Golden Boot winners have been majorly fancied to lift the trophy before the start.
Luck can also play a part in winning the Golden Boot award. In a domestic season there are 38 games with the best teams/strikers more likely to dominate. In contrast the World Cup tournament is played over a maximum of seven games, so unusual results should be expected. Luck could have played a part for Salenko in 1994. Not only did the striker score five of his six goals against Cameroon in the final group game, but they were his only ever international goals.
Intriguingly, of the eight most recent winners, all but Ronaldo (Brazil 2002) have been European, while Thomas Muller became the first midfielder to win the Golden Boot in the modern era in 2010.
Picking the 2014 World Cup Golden Boot winner is not simply a task of identifying the best striker. Instead bettors must consider a number of factors such as the impact of the draw, the likelihood their nation will progress deep into the tournament, the tactics their respective national teams employ and luck. By doing so bettors will be in a better position to make an informed bet in picking the 2014 World Cup Golden Boot winner.
 
I took Messi. He's thrived under the new manager. He takes the pens, he will take some free kicks. I think they have an easy draw for much of the tourney and I expect them to be one of the higher scoring teams.

I expect big things for Argentina (think they get to finals at least, but value not there to bet it) and Messi should score a lot of goals in the process.
 
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