NBA 2024 Play-In Tournament Best Bets April 16-17: Golden State's Perimeter Defense Is Porous
Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings
Tuesday, April 16, 2024 at 10 p.m. ET at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento
Golden State's Perimeter Defense
The porousness of Golden State's perimeter defense is going to decide this game.
On the season, the Warriors rank 25th at limiting opposing three-point attempts.
They allow the seventh-most open three-point attempts per game and the seventh-most wide-open ones.
These stats indicate that they do a poor job of running teams off the three-point line and of contesting three-point shots.
Recent History
Golden State's most recent games attest to the ongoing nature of its struggle with defending the perimeter.
In its last game, it allowed Utah to make 14 threes. The Jazz converted over 40 percent of their three-point attempts.
Two games ago, the Warriors allowed New Orleans to make 20 threes. The Pelicans converted 52.6 percent of their three-point attempts.
The Warriors failed to cover the spread in both games, suggesting the relevance of their perimeter defense failures to the outcome of their games.
Sacramento's Offense
Sacramento is just the team to take advantage of Golden State's perimeter defense.
The Kings love shooting threes: they attempt the third-most per game.
Expect especially Harrison Barnes and De'Aaron Fox to thrive from deep.
Barnes makes 41.7 percent of his threes at home. Fox is shooting over 40 percent from behind the arc in April and over 45 percent from deep in his last five games.
Sacramento's Stronger Perimeter Defense
Golden State, too, loves to shoot three-pointers, so it is decisive to note that the Kings own the stronger perimeter defense.
The Kings do a better job of limiting three-point attempts overall and of limiting open and wide-open three-point attempts.
It might not seem like Sacramento's perimeter defense is formidable if you look at its last game against the Warriors.
But in that game, the Warriors did an exceptional job of converting open and wide-open three-point attempts.
They still lost that game, despite Sacramento's unusually bad free throw shooting, because they couldn't stop the Kings' offense.
Best Bet: Kings +3.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Wednesday, April 17, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at Wells Fargo Center
Joel Embiid's Importance
Philadelphia is only in this position because of bad injury luck, the misfortune that star center Joel Embiid has had to miss so many games.
The 76ers are figuring out how to win without him. They enter this game having won eight in a row, some of which without Embiid.
But they are where they are because they had struggled to win without him.
On the season, Philadelphia is 31-8 with Embiid.
With Embiid, the 76ers are a top-level team, not one that, on neutral floor, would apparently be favored by less than a basket against this Heat team – at home tonight, the 76ers are favored by 4.5 points.
Defending Embiid
Miami lacks the size and skill inside to contain Embiid.
This is evident in Philadelphia's four-point win in Miami in which Embiid scored 39 points.
Having to devote extra attention to Embiid inside, the Heat make themselves more vulnerable to Philadelphia's remaining scoring talent.
We know about the rising star Tyrese Maxey who is scoring 30 points per game in April.
But Kelly Oubre Jr. and Tobias Harris also deserve mention as efficient additional scoring options.
Among other areas, these players pose a threat behind the arc especially given the attention that Embiid draws inside.
Miami is already vulnerable behind the arc – the Heat allow the most open three-point attempts per game.
Too Much Firepower
Philadelphia will have too much firepower in this game.
The Heat rank 21st in offensive rating, meaning that they lack the consistent productivity on offense to be trusted to possess the ability to keep pace with Philadelphia.
The 76ers aren't going to allow the Heat to do much offensively.
Three-time All-Defensive Team selection Embiid is a top-level rim protector, and the 76ers are one of the best teams at limiting three-point shots and makes.
Especially with Jimmy Butler declining offensively, Miami lacks the star-power on offense to pose a threat to Philly.
Best Bet: 76ers -4.5 at -115 with BetOnline
Atlanta Hawks vs. Chicago Bulls
Wednesday, April 17, 2024 at 9:30 p.m. ET at United Center in Chicago
Atlanta's Offense
On offense, Atlanta wants to shoot a lot of threes.
Several players, such as Trae Young and Bogdan Bogdanovic, gladly attempt a high volume of threes.
One player worth highlighting is De'Andre Hunter.
Hunter is attempting the most threes per game than he ever has before.
At the same time, he is converting threes at the highest rate in his career.
But even lesser-known Hawks players will contribute to Atlanta's overall three-point shooting endeavor.
Overall, the Hawks make the sixth-most threes per game. The difference between their ability to make threes at home versus on the road is negligible.
Chicago's Perimeter Defense
The Bulls would most gladly face offenses that prefer to attempt shots near the basket.
Atlanta is going to succeed against the Bulls because it does just the opposite.
Chicago's perimeter defense commits one error after another, whether players are gambling, overhelping, and so on.
The Bulls rank dead-last at limiting opposing three-point attempts.
They allow the second-most open three-point attempts and the fifth-most wide-open ones.
Evidently, they struggle to run teams off the three-point line and to contest opposing three-point shots.
Ayo Dosunmu
Bulls' perimeter defense Ayo Dosunmu is listed as a game-time decision with his quadricep injury.
His injury is crucial because he's had success limiting Atlanta's star point guard Trae Young.
Even if he plays, it seems likely that he'll be at less than 100-percent.
While it is true that Chicago could, to an extent, miss his scoring, three-time All-Star selection Trae Young's offensive potential is certainly stronger than Dosunmu's.
Because it will lead to more scoring overall, Dosunmu's injury benefits the "over."
Atlanta's Bad Defense
Atlanta has one of the NBA's worst defenses.
It fourth-to-last in terms of defensive rating.
Chicago didn't score a lot of points in its last game against Atlanta merely because it missed a lot of open and wide-open three-point attempts.
One must expect the Bulls to shoot better and otherwise to take better advantage of the opportunities that Atlanta's poor defense will give them.
Trends
The "over" has hit in four of Atlanta's last five games and in 12 of its last 16.
The "over" has likewise hit in four of Chicago's last five games.
Both teams are shaky on defense and filled with offensive firepower to extents that oddsmakers are not appreciating.
Best Bet: Over 221 at -110 with BetOnline
Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings
Tuesday, April 16, 2024 at 10 p.m. ET at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento
Golden State's Perimeter Defense
The porousness of Golden State's perimeter defense is going to decide this game.
On the season, the Warriors rank 25th at limiting opposing three-point attempts.
They allow the seventh-most open three-point attempts per game and the seventh-most wide-open ones.
These stats indicate that they do a poor job of running teams off the three-point line and of contesting three-point shots.
Recent History
Golden State's most recent games attest to the ongoing nature of its struggle with defending the perimeter.
In its last game, it allowed Utah to make 14 threes. The Jazz converted over 40 percent of their three-point attempts.
Two games ago, the Warriors allowed New Orleans to make 20 threes. The Pelicans converted 52.6 percent of their three-point attempts.
The Warriors failed to cover the spread in both games, suggesting the relevance of their perimeter defense failures to the outcome of their games.
Sacramento's Offense
Sacramento is just the team to take advantage of Golden State's perimeter defense.
The Kings love shooting threes: they attempt the third-most per game.
Expect especially Harrison Barnes and De'Aaron Fox to thrive from deep.
Barnes makes 41.7 percent of his threes at home. Fox is shooting over 40 percent from behind the arc in April and over 45 percent from deep in his last five games.
Sacramento's Stronger Perimeter Defense
Golden State, too, loves to shoot three-pointers, so it is decisive to note that the Kings own the stronger perimeter defense.
The Kings do a better job of limiting three-point attempts overall and of limiting open and wide-open three-point attempts.
It might not seem like Sacramento's perimeter defense is formidable if you look at its last game against the Warriors.
But in that game, the Warriors did an exceptional job of converting open and wide-open three-point attempts.
They still lost that game, despite Sacramento's unusually bad free throw shooting, because they couldn't stop the Kings' offense.
Best Bet: Kings +3.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Wednesday, April 17, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at Wells Fargo Center
Joel Embiid's Importance
Philadelphia is only in this position because of bad injury luck, the misfortune that star center Joel Embiid has had to miss so many games.
The 76ers are figuring out how to win without him. They enter this game having won eight in a row, some of which without Embiid.
But they are where they are because they had struggled to win without him.
On the season, Philadelphia is 31-8 with Embiid.
With Embiid, the 76ers are a top-level team, not one that, on neutral floor, would apparently be favored by less than a basket against this Heat team – at home tonight, the 76ers are favored by 4.5 points.
Defending Embiid
Miami lacks the size and skill inside to contain Embiid.
This is evident in Philadelphia's four-point win in Miami in which Embiid scored 39 points.
Having to devote extra attention to Embiid inside, the Heat make themselves more vulnerable to Philadelphia's remaining scoring talent.
We know about the rising star Tyrese Maxey who is scoring 30 points per game in April.
But Kelly Oubre Jr. and Tobias Harris also deserve mention as efficient additional scoring options.
Among other areas, these players pose a threat behind the arc especially given the attention that Embiid draws inside.
Miami is already vulnerable behind the arc – the Heat allow the most open three-point attempts per game.
Too Much Firepower
Philadelphia will have too much firepower in this game.
The Heat rank 21st in offensive rating, meaning that they lack the consistent productivity on offense to be trusted to possess the ability to keep pace with Philadelphia.
The 76ers aren't going to allow the Heat to do much offensively.
Three-time All-Defensive Team selection Embiid is a top-level rim protector, and the 76ers are one of the best teams at limiting three-point shots and makes.
Especially with Jimmy Butler declining offensively, Miami lacks the star-power on offense to pose a threat to Philly.
Best Bet: 76ers -4.5 at -115 with BetOnline
Atlanta Hawks vs. Chicago Bulls
Wednesday, April 17, 2024 at 9:30 p.m. ET at United Center in Chicago
Atlanta's Offense
On offense, Atlanta wants to shoot a lot of threes.
Several players, such as Trae Young and Bogdan Bogdanovic, gladly attempt a high volume of threes.
One player worth highlighting is De'Andre Hunter.
Hunter is attempting the most threes per game than he ever has before.
At the same time, he is converting threes at the highest rate in his career.
But even lesser-known Hawks players will contribute to Atlanta's overall three-point shooting endeavor.
Overall, the Hawks make the sixth-most threes per game. The difference between their ability to make threes at home versus on the road is negligible.
Chicago's Perimeter Defense
The Bulls would most gladly face offenses that prefer to attempt shots near the basket.
Atlanta is going to succeed against the Bulls because it does just the opposite.
Chicago's perimeter defense commits one error after another, whether players are gambling, overhelping, and so on.
The Bulls rank dead-last at limiting opposing three-point attempts.
They allow the second-most open three-point attempts and the fifth-most wide-open ones.
Evidently, they struggle to run teams off the three-point line and to contest opposing three-point shots.
Ayo Dosunmu
Bulls' perimeter defense Ayo Dosunmu is listed as a game-time decision with his quadricep injury.
His injury is crucial because he's had success limiting Atlanta's star point guard Trae Young.
Even if he plays, it seems likely that he'll be at less than 100-percent.
While it is true that Chicago could, to an extent, miss his scoring, three-time All-Star selection Trae Young's offensive potential is certainly stronger than Dosunmu's.
Because it will lead to more scoring overall, Dosunmu's injury benefits the "over."
Atlanta's Bad Defense
Atlanta has one of the NBA's worst defenses.
It fourth-to-last in terms of defensive rating.
Chicago didn't score a lot of points in its last game against Atlanta merely because it missed a lot of open and wide-open three-point attempts.
One must expect the Bulls to shoot better and otherwise to take better advantage of the opportunities that Atlanta's poor defense will give them.
Trends
The "over" has hit in four of Atlanta's last five games and in 12 of its last 16.
The "over" has likewise hit in four of Chicago's last five games.
Both teams are shaky on defense and filled with offensive firepower to extents that oddsmakers are not appreciating.
Best Bet: Over 221 at -110 with BetOnline
