Play I like a lot

[tuck321]

Baltimore team total over 4 plus 3 cents. In night games just to start baltimore averages almost 6 runs. This year in night games Kaz has a 5.40 era and at home he has .759 era. At least 3 players on this Baltimore team have hit him very well
Huff
Roberts
Markakis
Baltimore has played 10 away games this year. You would win this total over on 8 of those games and then go 1 loss and 1 tie. Baltimore hates Tampa with major passion because of years of domination. In 8 first games of series this year against this 4 you would go 6=0=2.
Seems worth a large bet to me.

 

[D-Woww]

great points, but why not just play the game over with eaton pitching for baltimore....that way just in case u are wrong about baltimore there is a chance that eaton sucks like he usally does and mabye tb wins 9-2 and ud still win

 

[tuck321]

I think based on pure numbers my chances are better this way. I do not expect an automatic win by Tampa here. Not sure if I do anything with the game itself or the total but have a feeling that in this game there is a hunter and a hunted and Baltimore may be the team that ends on top. Tampa is 4-6 in their last 10 home games, I do think there is value with the game over but these numbers for the team total are incredibly strong. The last 4 times Kaz has faced Baltimore at home he is 2-2. Just want to think more about this Eaton.

 

[tuck321]

let me point something else out here.
Baez
Johnson
Walker
the 3 best relief pitchers for Baltimore were all rested for this game.
Cormier and Nelson are the best regular relief pitchers for Tampa but Cormier has a 6.43 home era.
In 7 of Eaton's last 10 road games he pitched no worse than 6 innings giving up 3 runs. Tampa bay could lose this game easily and I am making a bet on Baltimore for the game as well.

 

[Tide High]

yeah eaton was stellar 2 starts ago, then walked 4 last start. who knows about him. i like the TT over

 

[tuck321]

Oakland ml minus 2 cents currently. Not reading anything that makes any sense here. Oakland at night 6-6. Anaheim 6-10. Saunders in his last 2 starts has gone 11 innings and given up 9 runs 7 earned. In those 11 innings he has given up 17 hits and 3 walks. Anderson no peach but he is young and has faced very tough opposition but still has 2 very reasonable starts. Oakland has a very Large bull pen advantage for this game which surprised me when I saw it. Beyond that Oakland lost extended game and Seattle won extended game. in my world that invites play on oakland and against Seattle.
Further in the real world doing ANYTHING but supporting divisional home dogs is a little crazy. Understand something clearly. Saunders went through the oakland line up no problem last time. this is the SECOND time and this time anaheim is off a big win and Oakland seen a lot more left handed hitting.

 

[Vikingsguy]

I guess I can't disagree with either, and especially like you playing against Saunders 1.00 command rate. Troubling times ahead for him...

 

[E.T.G.]

Oakland ml minus 2 cents currently. Not reading anything that makes any sense here. Oakland at night 6-6. Anaheim 6-10. Saunders in his last 2 starts has gone 11 innings and given up 9 runs 7 earned. In those 11 innings he has given up 17 hits and 3 walks. Anderson no peach but he is young and has faced very tough opposition but still has 2 very reasonable starts. Oakland has a very Large bull pen advantage for this game which surprised me when I saw it. Beyond that Oakland lost extended game and Seattle won extended game. in my world that invites play on oakland and against Seattle.
Further in the real world doing ANYTHING but supporting divisional home dogs is a little crazy. Understand something clearly. Saunders went through the oakland line up no problem last time. this is the SECOND time and this time anaheim is off a big win and have seen a lot more left handed hitting.

Tuck, going to be against your Oakland play here. I have the Angels for a few reasons tonight. Anderson is a pitcher who I see going about 5innings tonight, the last 2 nights, Oakland has used a ton of bullpen and not sure exactly what they will have available from the 6th inning on in this game. Saunders has a track record that says he is a better road pitcher than home pitcher and so far on the year he is 2-0 w/ 2.08era on the road. In 2008, Saunders was 10-3 w/ 2.55era on the road. I dont like much about the Oakland lineup. They struggle with any LHP they face and now are at .209 on the year and .194 int heir last 10 against LHP. Then you have the fact that Saunders has already beaten Oakland and he is 6-2 in 10 games started against Oakland. One could argue that Oakland getting a second look at Saunders is a benefit to them but you can flip that any way you want. Angels should be rested coming into this game while Oakland should not be. Angels play a much better style of baseball and can produce runs when nothing really happens in an inning by doing the little things that matter meanwhile Oakland likes to leave men on base. At this cheap of a price for a superior pitcher and a superior line up, I could not pass the Angels up. I see Oakland crapping out at 3 runs tops tonight.

 

[tuck321]

Said Oakland had much better pen. Do not play with the facts.
Covers to be brief shows Angels with an available pen era of 7.48
Looking at Oakland pen I see
Giese on 2 day rest era 3.55
Bailey 1 day rest 1.53 era
Wuertz 1 days rest 1.98 era
Casilla is shown on 5 days rest so i wonder if he is really available. 1.59 era.
Team has just much better pen.
chart favors Oakland but not sure that means anything on 2 game spots.
Anaheim does have an edge in bat strength although clearly Oakland bats are heating up. last 10 Anaheim has given up 67 runs
Oakland has given up 50
Will stand with a general statement if you are interested in making money you only play divisional home dog situations by playing the home dog.
1 unit laid on Yankees ml? Am I a Yankee fan. Never been to ny and never intend to. Do like their blogs but have bet against them more than on them every year.
Hughes in his last 31.1 innings has given up 4 runs. That is including the minors
Yankees last few years in first game at home in a 2 game set went 4-0.
Virtually no one on the Boston team has seen him. 3 players on the Yankee line up hit Lester very well. Others hit him well on short samples. Boston is 2-4 last 6 games while yankees are 4-2. so far this season Lester's numbers suck with a 7.04 night era and a away era of 8.25. truth is however that last year he was a fine night pitcher but he is still 4-6 in his last 10 road games. Moderate bet laying 5 cents with the better rested pen and major revenge.

 

[E.T.G.]

Just looked at the Oakland bullpen, You are right, they should have Bailey and Wuertz who both pitched Saturday. Both are solid. That is however the only advantage I see Oakland having in this game tonight. Saunders strong on the road and strong at night and the Angels play a better brand of baseball and have the better offense, which I don't even think is close. Oakland has 1 guy batting over .300 in Suzuki. Love how the Angels run and play small ball to generate runs. Some other things working in this series, Oakland already took 2/3 from Angels at their place. GL on the rest of your plays. Thoughts on the Nationals TT Over?

 

[GWarner27]

i got 4 in the first 2 last monday and lost BAL o5.5 so good luck with that tuck

 

[RetroVK]

good luck tuck.

poet and dont know it.

 

[tuck321]

Did something similar in that vein. Went to first inning and looked at Moehler. Ugly. On the 29th in the minors he pitched away going 5 innings and giving up 8 runs. His last away he went to Pitt and in 2.1 innings he gave up 5 runs.
At Colorado he went 4.2 innings and gave up 5 runs. at the Mets he gave up 3 runs.
No real reason at all looking at his starts to think he is fixed but with Hampton pitching bad they probably thought they had little to lose. Played Washington minus 15 cents .5 first half. Bet team total over 5 and played a parlay of Washington and over first half. No fan of Washington. Think hot Houston could catch up but this guy is a target and should be attacked in many ways.

 

[tuck321]

At some point will play the Reds ml. Current price at 5d 39 cents. This fForida team got a hot start on Washington and since then we see 3-7 last 10. Harang over his career is 50=47 at night with an era of 4.14. ERA wise May has been 3.82. today his era is 3.09 and lifetime away 39-34. The better team is dogged here getting serious money and that is something to bet against.

 

[tuck321]

More insanity. Padres getting 8 cents. Played this one unlisted because i really do not care. Padres pen got ragged on the road at home they have been SOLID. Padres at night 9-8. Colorado at night 3-7. Colorado 5-9 away while padres are 6-4 at home and its another divisional dog. Colorado starter 0-4. Padre starter 2-2. Welcome to baseball. Padres plus 8 cents ml.

 

[tuck321]

Could be my last play for the day. Then i am a degenerate so---
Cubs rl plus 18 cents. Cubs minus 2.5 plus 178 Dempster has not looked very good. Pretty bad really. He is 15 and 5 last 20 at home. 14 of the wins were by 2 or more runs. Not really that good on the road but he has earned his pay at home. Frisco is off an over time win. Dempster is playing his second home game this season. Tim goes tomorrow. Remember the dead spot. Cubs have won 3 in a row at home pulling themselves back into the season. Sanchez has never pitched in Wiggly. Sanches last start needed 96 pitches to get through 5 innings giving up 3 walks and 3 hits and the team losing by 2. 3 of his last 5 starts he got crushed givving up 18 runs in 11.2 innings. Not a bad guy. Just a little guy that can get hammered and the team does not think much about it. Tim goes tomorrow. I am going to play ugly looking dempster to get back in the green today.

 

[smo1a]

On O's total as well! Lets cash.

 

[Santacapper]

:cheers:

 

[E.T.G.]

def a nice call on that tuck, thanks

 

[Jasper11]

Nice Work

I was on the Mets and Seattle but your write up on Baltimore won me over. I ended up tacking on the O's with the Mets and Seatle as parleys and a took a medium straight bet at +195. Just want to thank you Tuck because Baltimore is a team I would usually fade quickly against most good teams but your arguments were way too sound for that.You turned a routine small plus night into something really special and I appreciate you sharing it. BOL on your other bets! :cheers:

 

[Joe Public]

Great call, Tuck.