Pittsburgh vs. Miami: NCAAF Week 7 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Miami Hurricanes
Saturday, October 17, 2020 at noon ET (ACC Network) at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida
Pittsburgh’s Misleading Pass Defense Stats
If you were to look at Pittsburgh’s season pass defense statistics, then you would think that everything is fairly alright with Pittsburgh’s pass defense.
But the Panthers’ pass defense stats are deceptive precisely because they reflect what Pitt has done overall this season. Overall this season, the Panthers have mostly benefitted from facing feeble pass attacks.
The ACC is relatively full of teams where poor quarterback play is mingled with lackluster wide receivers. Syracuse, whose passing offense ranks last in the ACC, is one example of this.
Besides Syracuse’s duo of hapless quarterbacks, the Panthers have been glad to face the inefficient Malik Cunningham of Louisville. They also benefitted from facing Austin Peay in the season opener.
Pittsburgh’s Pass Defense: Last Two Games
In the last two weeks, Pittsburgh has faced teams who are a notch higher in terms of passing quality, although even these teams’ passing attacks are hard to love for various reasons.
NC State combined creative play-calling with improved quarterback play to score 30 points. Wolfpack quarterback Devin Leary completed 28 of 44 pass attempts for 336 yards and four touchdowns.
Last week, Pittsburgh allowed another opposing quarterback — Boston College’s Phil Jurkovec — to accumulate over 300 passing yards plus three touchdowns. The Eagles scored 31 points (including one overtime).
The Panther Pass Defense Problems Explained
Opposing pass attacks are mostly succeeding because they are able to identify and magnify Pittsburgh’s weaknesses in coverage by exploiting its scheme-drive vulnerabilities in order to create positive match-up opportunities.
In one example, Pitt cornerback Jason Pinnock is trying to play press coverage against Boston College’s Zay Flowers.
Here, Pinnock’s goal is to jam Flowers at the line and to use inside technique in order to force Flowers to the sideline, which should basically function as an extra defender.
But Pinnock basically whiffs partly due to the way that Flowers has lined up. Then, Flowers is able to earn a big gain.
Pinnock’s deficiencies in press coverage are something that opposing pass attacks know to exploit.
Another weakness with Pitt’s pass defense is the use of its safeties primarily for run support.
Also, linebackers who are not comfortable in coverage are being isolated particularly when Pittsburgh blitzes. Opposing pass attacks take advantage of the uncomfortable duties of these linebackers when the Panther pass rush doesn’t succeed.
So, as a result of Pittsburgh’s Press Cover 4, of its emphasis on run-stopping, of its linebackers in coverage, of Pinnock plus fellow corner Damar Hamlin looking slow, opposing pass attacks are accumulating great numbers.
D’Eriq King & Miami Pass Attack
I know that I ripped Miami quarterback D’Eriq King last week. But that was because he was facing, in Clemson, a completely different defense and a completely different secondary. The quality of Clemson’s defensive scheme and of its cornerbacks is incomparably higher.
Before that Clemson game, King was 47-of-70 for 592 yards, five touchdowns, and zero interceptions in two ACC games.
He is more than capable of performing superbly against the secondaries that have problems.
King also has the necessary ability at wide receiver.
Since he was a Houston Cougar, King has loved throwing to his slot receivers. So Mike Harley is perfect for him. Miami’s slot receiver is currently the team’s leading wide receiver in terms of receptions.
With all of the single coverage that Pitt allows downfield also without providing vertical help over the top probably because its safeties are playing closer to the line of scrimmage to defend the run, you want a deep threat.
Boston College, we saw last week, was not shy about throwing it deep. Miami will know to do the same. Its spread formations are also schematically beneficial for speedsters.
With his size at 6-3 and his speed, Dee Wiggins is quite dangerous especially in isolated, one-on-one situations downfield.
Wiggins reliably accrues big gains in the passing game. His longest reception is 40 yards this year. Last year it was 67.
If you counter that 40 yards isn’t that big of a deal for a longest catch, then you’re missing the point. Wiggins is not going to burn a defense with his breakaway speed. He is going to be a vertical threat downfield.
Pittsburgh Pass Attack vs. Miami Defense
Unlike Miami's, which ranks 30 points better in terms of YPP (Yards Per Play), the Panther offense isn’t going to move downfield with any rapidity.
One obstacle to the Panthers’ pass attack will be Al Blades.
Before having to face Clemson’s loaded offense, Miami ranked 29th in opposing quarterback rating. Cornerback Al Blades, with his 11th-best pass coverage grade, was a big reason why.
Another obstacle for Pitt will be Kenny Pickett. Pitt’s starting quarterback is listed as ‚questionable‘ with an ankle injury.
Moreover, Miami enjoys one of the nation’s stronger pass rushes thanks to the likes of Quincy Roche, who has two sacks so far after accruing 13 last season.
Miami will be aggressive with its blitzes. Aggressiveness makes the Hurricane defense more vulnerable to the big passing plays that Pittsburgh isn’t inclined to accrue, anyways.
Aggressiveness will create more Hurricane pressure against a pass protection unit that ranks in the lower half in terms of percentage of sacks allowed.
The Verdict
After „being back“ and then not being back, Miami is in a strong and motivated emotional spot.
King and his pass attack will exploit the Panthers’ defensive vulnerabilities while Pitt will lack any semblance of the same firepower especially against Miami’s pass rush and experienced secondary.
Best Bet: Hurricanes -10 at -117 odds with BetOnline
Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Miami Hurricanes
Saturday, October 17, 2020 at noon ET (ACC Network) at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida
Pittsburgh’s Misleading Pass Defense Stats
If you were to look at Pittsburgh’s season pass defense statistics, then you would think that everything is fairly alright with Pittsburgh’s pass defense.
But the Panthers’ pass defense stats are deceptive precisely because they reflect what Pitt has done overall this season. Overall this season, the Panthers have mostly benefitted from facing feeble pass attacks.
The ACC is relatively full of teams where poor quarterback play is mingled with lackluster wide receivers. Syracuse, whose passing offense ranks last in the ACC, is one example of this.
Besides Syracuse’s duo of hapless quarterbacks, the Panthers have been glad to face the inefficient Malik Cunningham of Louisville. They also benefitted from facing Austin Peay in the season opener.
Pittsburgh’s Pass Defense: Last Two Games
In the last two weeks, Pittsburgh has faced teams who are a notch higher in terms of passing quality, although even these teams’ passing attacks are hard to love for various reasons.
NC State combined creative play-calling with improved quarterback play to score 30 points. Wolfpack quarterback Devin Leary completed 28 of 44 pass attempts for 336 yards and four touchdowns.
Last week, Pittsburgh allowed another opposing quarterback — Boston College’s Phil Jurkovec — to accumulate over 300 passing yards plus three touchdowns. The Eagles scored 31 points (including one overtime).
The Panther Pass Defense Problems Explained
Opposing pass attacks are mostly succeeding because they are able to identify and magnify Pittsburgh’s weaknesses in coverage by exploiting its scheme-drive vulnerabilities in order to create positive match-up opportunities.
In one example, Pitt cornerback Jason Pinnock is trying to play press coverage against Boston College’s Zay Flowers.
Here, Pinnock’s goal is to jam Flowers at the line and to use inside technique in order to force Flowers to the sideline, which should basically function as an extra defender.
But Pinnock basically whiffs partly due to the way that Flowers has lined up. Then, Flowers is able to earn a big gain.
Pinnock’s deficiencies in press coverage are something that opposing pass attacks know to exploit.
Another weakness with Pitt’s pass defense is the use of its safeties primarily for run support.
Also, linebackers who are not comfortable in coverage are being isolated particularly when Pittsburgh blitzes. Opposing pass attacks take advantage of the uncomfortable duties of these linebackers when the Panther pass rush doesn’t succeed.
So, as a result of Pittsburgh’s Press Cover 4, of its emphasis on run-stopping, of its linebackers in coverage, of Pinnock plus fellow corner Damar Hamlin looking slow, opposing pass attacks are accumulating great numbers.
D’Eriq King & Miami Pass Attack
I know that I ripped Miami quarterback D’Eriq King last week. But that was because he was facing, in Clemson, a completely different defense and a completely different secondary. The quality of Clemson’s defensive scheme and of its cornerbacks is incomparably higher.
Before that Clemson game, King was 47-of-70 for 592 yards, five touchdowns, and zero interceptions in two ACC games.
He is more than capable of performing superbly against the secondaries that have problems.
King also has the necessary ability at wide receiver.
Since he was a Houston Cougar, King has loved throwing to his slot receivers. So Mike Harley is perfect for him. Miami’s slot receiver is currently the team’s leading wide receiver in terms of receptions.
With all of the single coverage that Pitt allows downfield also without providing vertical help over the top probably because its safeties are playing closer to the line of scrimmage to defend the run, you want a deep threat.
Boston College, we saw last week, was not shy about throwing it deep. Miami will know to do the same. Its spread formations are also schematically beneficial for speedsters.
With his size at 6-3 and his speed, Dee Wiggins is quite dangerous especially in isolated, one-on-one situations downfield.
Wiggins reliably accrues big gains in the passing game. His longest reception is 40 yards this year. Last year it was 67.
If you counter that 40 yards isn’t that big of a deal for a longest catch, then you’re missing the point. Wiggins is not going to burn a defense with his breakaway speed. He is going to be a vertical threat downfield.
Pittsburgh Pass Attack vs. Miami Defense
Unlike Miami's, which ranks 30 points better in terms of YPP (Yards Per Play), the Panther offense isn’t going to move downfield with any rapidity.
One obstacle to the Panthers’ pass attack will be Al Blades.
Before having to face Clemson’s loaded offense, Miami ranked 29th in opposing quarterback rating. Cornerback Al Blades, with his 11th-best pass coverage grade, was a big reason why.
Another obstacle for Pitt will be Kenny Pickett. Pitt’s starting quarterback is listed as ‚questionable‘ with an ankle injury.
Moreover, Miami enjoys one of the nation’s stronger pass rushes thanks to the likes of Quincy Roche, who has two sacks so far after accruing 13 last season.
Miami will be aggressive with its blitzes. Aggressiveness makes the Hurricane defense more vulnerable to the big passing plays that Pittsburgh isn’t inclined to accrue, anyways.
Aggressiveness will create more Hurricane pressure against a pass protection unit that ranks in the lower half in terms of percentage of sacks allowed.
The Verdict
After „being back“ and then not being back, Miami is in a strong and motivated emotional spot.
King and his pass attack will exploit the Panthers’ defensive vulnerabilities while Pitt will lack any semblance of the same firepower especially against Miami’s pass rush and experienced secondary.
Best Bet: Hurricanes -10 at -117 odds with BetOnline
