Pittsburgh vs. Georgia Tech: Week 15 College Football Game Predictions
Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Thursday, December 10, 2020 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN3) at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia
Can Pittsburgh Cover?
Currently, Pittsburgh is 3-6-1 ATS. So covers have been rare for the Panthers.
But the Panther are consistent about when they cover.
In all three Pitt covers, it ran the ball well. Overall, the Panthers are 3-0-1 ATS when they run for over 130 yards as a team.
So in deciding whether to bet on the Panthers to cover the spread, we want to consider primarily their ability to run the ball on Georgia Tech.
Pittsburgh Covers
The three opponents against which Pittsburgh covered the spread were Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Austin Peay.
Austin Peay is an FCS school. So we can forget about them during our analysis.
Florida State ranks fourth-to-last in the ACC in rush defense — as measured by opposing rushing yards per game — while Virginia Tech ranks third-to-last in the category.
Georgia Tech’s Run Defense
In rush defense, the Yellow Jackets rank two spots ahead of the Seminoles and three ahead of the Hokies.
This disparity may not seem appreciable. But consider that the Yellow Jackets had to contend with both Notre Dame and Clemson.
Conversely, the Seminoles dodged Clemson while the Hokies got to avoid Notre Dame.
Both teams — the Tigers and Fighting Irish — are statistical difference-makers because the former possess arguably the nation’s best running back in Travis Etienne while the latter rank 10th nationally in rush offense behind their strong offensive line.
Moreover, the Yellow Jacket run defense appears as poor as it does statistically largely because of their struggles against mobile quarterbacks.
These struggles are consistent and have been exploited by various teams like Notre Dame, for example.
When Boston College gashed the Yellow Jackets in October, its quarterback ran for 94 yards.
Pittsburgh, though, is not equipped to exploit this particular weakness of Georgia Tech’s run defense.
Kenny Pickett is not dangerous on the ground. This season, he’s averaging all of 1.7 YPC.
He has a bigger, sturdier type of body, which aids his classification as a pro-style quarterback.
Pittsburgh Ground Game
Almost regardless of Georgia Tech’s run defense, the Panthers possess generally unthreatening personnel for their ground game.
Led by a feature running back in Vincent Davis who averages only 3.3 YPC, the Panthers rank 119th nationally in rushing yards per game.
So they cover the spread so rarely because they fail to provide a balanced offense.
Kenny Pickett
Pickett is not a quarterback that a team will want to carry its offense.
He ranks a mediocre seventh in the ACC is passing yards, a ranking which is inflated by two anomalous performances in which he eclipsed 400 passing yards.
Pickett generally produces ho-hum numbers, even against very low-ranked pass defenses like that of Syracuse and that of Florida State.
Georgia Tech Offense vs. Pittsburgh Defense
If not Pittsburgh, should we rely on the Yellow jackets to cover the spread?
I worry above all about the Georgia Tech offense, which ranks 90th nationally in points per game.
Freshman quarterback Jeff Sims is a real problem because he’s quite inefficient — he’s completing 54.9 percent of his passes — and has thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns.
Opposing cornerbacks regularly play Yellow Jacket wide receivers very tight in order to remove the short passing game from Georgia Tech’s offensive arsenal.
The goal is for defenses to force Sims to attempt downfield passes instead of shorter ones because Sims poses negligible vertical threat with his low accuracy.
Pittsburgh’s defense feasts on the ACC’s lower-ranked quarterbacks.
Statistically, Sims compares to what Syracuse and Florida State have had to offer in terms of quarterbacking. All three teams have quarterbacks who rank outside the top 10 in the ACC in passing yards.
With Sims at quarterback, Georgia Tech will further resemble the Orange and Seminoles in failing to exceed 17 points against the Panther defense.
The Verdict
Bad offense is a consistent feature in these teams, which have played to the “under” in each of their last three meetings.
Good defense will secure the “under” as Georgia Tech stymies Pittsburgh’s boring, running back-driven ground game and Pittsburgh’s pass defense prolongs Sims’ struggles with completing passes.
Best Bet: Under 53.5 at -110 with Bovada
Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Thursday, December 10, 2020 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN3) at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia
Can Pittsburgh Cover?
Currently, Pittsburgh is 3-6-1 ATS. So covers have been rare for the Panthers.
But the Panther are consistent about when they cover.
In all three Pitt covers, it ran the ball well. Overall, the Panthers are 3-0-1 ATS when they run for over 130 yards as a team.
So in deciding whether to bet on the Panthers to cover the spread, we want to consider primarily their ability to run the ball on Georgia Tech.
Pittsburgh Covers
The three opponents against which Pittsburgh covered the spread were Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Austin Peay.
Austin Peay is an FCS school. So we can forget about them during our analysis.
Florida State ranks fourth-to-last in the ACC in rush defense — as measured by opposing rushing yards per game — while Virginia Tech ranks third-to-last in the category.
Georgia Tech’s Run Defense
In rush defense, the Yellow Jackets rank two spots ahead of the Seminoles and three ahead of the Hokies.
This disparity may not seem appreciable. But consider that the Yellow Jackets had to contend with both Notre Dame and Clemson.
Conversely, the Seminoles dodged Clemson while the Hokies got to avoid Notre Dame.
Both teams — the Tigers and Fighting Irish — are statistical difference-makers because the former possess arguably the nation’s best running back in Travis Etienne while the latter rank 10th nationally in rush offense behind their strong offensive line.
Moreover, the Yellow Jacket run defense appears as poor as it does statistically largely because of their struggles against mobile quarterbacks.
These struggles are consistent and have been exploited by various teams like Notre Dame, for example.
When Boston College gashed the Yellow Jackets in October, its quarterback ran for 94 yards.
Pittsburgh, though, is not equipped to exploit this particular weakness of Georgia Tech’s run defense.
Kenny Pickett is not dangerous on the ground. This season, he’s averaging all of 1.7 YPC.
He has a bigger, sturdier type of body, which aids his classification as a pro-style quarterback.
Pittsburgh Ground Game
Almost regardless of Georgia Tech’s run defense, the Panthers possess generally unthreatening personnel for their ground game.
Led by a feature running back in Vincent Davis who averages only 3.3 YPC, the Panthers rank 119th nationally in rushing yards per game.
So they cover the spread so rarely because they fail to provide a balanced offense.
Kenny Pickett
Pickett is not a quarterback that a team will want to carry its offense.
He ranks a mediocre seventh in the ACC is passing yards, a ranking which is inflated by two anomalous performances in which he eclipsed 400 passing yards.
Pickett generally produces ho-hum numbers, even against very low-ranked pass defenses like that of Syracuse and that of Florida State.
Georgia Tech Offense vs. Pittsburgh Defense
If not Pittsburgh, should we rely on the Yellow jackets to cover the spread?
I worry above all about the Georgia Tech offense, which ranks 90th nationally in points per game.
Freshman quarterback Jeff Sims is a real problem because he’s quite inefficient — he’s completing 54.9 percent of his passes — and has thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns.
Opposing cornerbacks regularly play Yellow Jacket wide receivers very tight in order to remove the short passing game from Georgia Tech’s offensive arsenal.
The goal is for defenses to force Sims to attempt downfield passes instead of shorter ones because Sims poses negligible vertical threat with his low accuracy.
Pittsburgh’s defense feasts on the ACC’s lower-ranked quarterbacks.
Statistically, Sims compares to what Syracuse and Florida State have had to offer in terms of quarterbacking. All three teams have quarterbacks who rank outside the top 10 in the ACC in passing yards.
With Sims at quarterback, Georgia Tech will further resemble the Orange and Seminoles in failing to exceed 17 points against the Panther defense.
The Verdict
Bad offense is a consistent feature in these teams, which have played to the “under” in each of their last three meetings.
Good defense will secure the “under” as Georgia Tech stymies Pittsburgh’s boring, running back-driven ground game and Pittsburgh’s pass defense prolongs Sims’ struggles with completing passes.
Best Bet: Under 53.5 at -110 with Bovada
