Pittsburgh v. Baltimore - Round 3 Discussion and Pick

C-MAN

C-MAN

Pretty much a regular
I started a similar thread late in the week for the Pgh/San Diego game last week and it generated some good discussion and thoughts. Let's get it going early for this week's game. I am admittedly a Steelers homer, however, I do not let that interfere with my ulitimate goal in sports wagering, which is to make money. That being said, I really like the Pittsburgh Steelers to advance to the Super Bowl this weekend and to cover the spread (currently -6.5) and will be posting the reasons why when I have time during this week. I look forward to hearing good arguments for both teams as we get closer to Sunday. :cheers:
 
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As a Steeler homer, what did you see from the Ravens in the two matchups in the regular season? Remember the Ravens playing them close, blowing the lead in one.

I'm leaning the Ravens as I just can't see one team exploding on the other.
 
As an initial thought, I would like to throw out there that although Baltimore has had a great season, the argument could be made that until this week at Tennessee, Baltimore has not defeated a good team all season (with all due respect to Miami). Here is Baltimore's schedule and results this season.

Playoffs

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahead width="26%">Date</TD><TD class=datahead width="24%">Vs</TD><TD class=datahead width="13%">Score</TD><TD class=datahead width="13%">Week</TD><TD class=datahead width="14%">BAL Line</TD><TD class=datahead width="10%">O/U</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Saturday 01/10/09</TD><TD class=datacell>@ Tennessee </TD><TD class=datacell>W 13-10 </TD><TD class=datacell>Divisional</TD><TD class=datacell>W 3</TD><TD class=datacell>U 33.5</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Sunday 01/04/09</TD><TD class=datacell>@ Miami </TD><TD class=datacell>W 27-9 </TD><TD class=datacell>Wildcard</TD><TD class=datacell>W -3.5</TD><TD class=datacell>U 38</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Regular Season

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahead width="26%">Date</TD><TD class=datahead width="24%">Vs</TD><TD class=datahead width="13%">Score</TD><TD class=datahead width="13%">Week</TD><TD class=datahead width="14%">BAL Line</TD><TD class=datahead width="10%">O/U</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Sunday 12/28/08</TD><TD class=datacell>Jacksonville </TD><TD class=datacell>W 27-7 </TD><TD class=datacell>Week 17</TD><TD class=datacell>W -10</TD><TD class=datacell>U 37.5</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Saturday 12/20/08</TD><TD class=datacell>@ Dallas </TD><TD class=datacell>W 33-24 </TD><TD class=datacell>Week 16</TD><TD class=datacell>W 5</TD><TD class=datacell>O 39.5</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Sunday 12/14/08</TD><TD class=datacell>Pittsburgh </TD><TD class=datacell>L 9-13 </TD><TD class=datacell>Week 15</TD><TD class=datacell>L -3</TD><TD class=datacell>U 34</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Sunday Night 12/07/08</TD><TD class=datacell>Washington </TD><TD class=datacell>W 24-10 </TD><TD class=datacell>Week 14</TD><TD class=datacell>W -6</TD><TD class=datacell>U 34.5</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Sunday 11/30/08</TD><TD class=datacell>@ Cincinnati </TD><TD class=datacell>W 34-3 </TD><TD class=datacell>Week 13</TD><TD class=datacell>W -7</TD><TD class=datacell>O 35.5</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Sunday 11/23/08</TD><TD class=datacell>Philadelphia </TD><TD class=datacell>W 36-7 </TD><TD class=datacell>Week 12</TD><TD class=datacell>W -1</TD><TD class=datacell>O 39.5</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Sunday 11/16/08</TD><TD class=datacell>@ N.Y. Giants </TD><TD class=datacell>L 10-30 </TD><TD class=datacell>Week 11</TD><TD class=datacell>L 7</TD><TD class=datacell>P 40</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Sunday 11/09/08</TD><TD class=datacell>@ Houston </TD><TD class=datacell>W 41-13 </TD><TD class=datacell>Week 10</TD><TD class=datacell>W 2.5</TD><TD class=datacell>O 43.5</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Sunday 11/02/08</TD><TD class=datacell>@ Cleveland </TD><TD class=datacell>W 37-27 </TD><TD class=datacell>Week 9</TD><TD class=datacell>W 1</TD><TD class=datacell>O 36.5</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Sunday 10/26/08</TD><TD class=datacell>Oakland </TD><TD class=datacell>W 29-10 </TD><TD class=datacell>Week 8</TD><TD class=datacell>W -9</TD><TD class=datacell>O 34.5</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Sunday 10/19/08</TD><TD class=datacell>@ Miami </TD><TD class=datacell>W 27-13 </TD><TD class=datacell>Week 7</TD><TD class=datacell>W 3</TD><TD class=datacell>O 35.5</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Sunday 10/12/08</TD><TD class=datacell>@ Indianapolis </TD><TD class=datacell>L 3-31 </TD><TD class=datacell>Week 6</TD><TD class=datacell>L 4</TD><TD class=datacell>U 39</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Sunday 10/05/08</TD><TD class=datacell>Tennessee </TD><TD class=datacell>L 10-13 </TD><TD class=datacell>Week 5</TD><TD class=datacell>L 1</TD><TD class=datacell>U 33.5</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Monday 09/29/08</TD><TD class=datacell>@ Pittsburgh </TD><TD class=datacell>L 20-23 x</TD><TD class=datacell>Week 4</TD><TD class=datacell>W 6</TD><TD class=datacell>O 34.5</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Sunday 09/21/08</TD><TD class=datacell>Cleveland </TD><TD class=datacell>W 28-10 </TD><TD class=datacell>Week 3</TD><TD class=datacell>W -1</TD><TD class=datacell>O 37</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacellc colSpan=6>BYE</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Sunday 09/07/08</TD><TD class=datacell>Cincinnati </TD><TD class=datacell>W 17-10 </TD><TD class=datacell>Week 1</TD><TD class=datacell>W 1</TD><TD class=datacell>U 37.5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

The only playoff teams they beat were Miami and Philly, and they caught Philly at home and at the right time when they had hit rock bottom and McNabb was benched. They lost to PGH, NYG, IND and TEN - and the NYG and TEN games were not even competitive. The rest of Balt's schedule was a joke - Jack at home when they had given up, Cincy and Clev twice, WSH and HOU (same as PGH), OAK at home.
 
I'd throw that out the window. It's the playoffs now, there are two wild cards in the final four along with a three seed that came from "the joke division" in the NFL, the NFC West.

It's a new season.
 
Goopster24 said:
As a Steeler homer, what did you see from the Ravens in the two matchups in the regular season? Remember the Ravens playing them close, blowing the lead in one.

I'm leaning the Ravens as I just can't see one team exploding on the other.
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Good question. I actually saw quite a bit as I was at the first game and watched every play of the second. I will get into the fine details later, but the most important thing I saw is simple: Pittsburgh winning at Baltimore. I bet the Ravens in that game and if you look back around this site I was preaching how the Steelers never win in Baltimore. In fact, Balt usuallly handles the Steelers pretty well at home and some recent scores have been quite lopsided in favor of the Ravens. The fact that Pittsburgh went into Baltimore and defeated this team is pretty telling IMO and should really give the Steelers an extra psychological advantage going into this game.
 
Goopster24 said:
I'd throw that out the window. It's the playoffs now, there are two wild cards in the final four along with a three seed that came from "the joke division" in the NFL, the NFC West.

It's a new season.
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It may be a new season, but you cannot completely discard a team's body of work over the course of the season in evaluating how they will perform in this game. Obviously, how a team is playing late in the season is more relevant than how it played in week 1, but you have a limited amount of information available to you in evaluating these two teams, and their regular season schedule and results is certainly relevant IMO.
 
By the way, in case anyone was going to use motivation as a factor in this game, and argue that Baltimore should be more motivated because they are playing with double revenge - please, stop now. These 2 teams hate each other and both will be extremely motivated for this game. Just take a look at how the Steelers handled their business against Cleveland in week 17. The motivation will be equal for this game.
 
I think this games gonna be a bloodbath

just an absolutely brutal game

I think Pitt wins, but theres no way id lay more than a FG

just feels like a 13-10 game...hell maybe even a 9-6 one or a PSU/Iowa Memorial 6-4 thriller

but that being said, if the ravens defense is banged up to the point where guys arent playing, then id consider laying the points
 
C-MAN said:
As an initial thought, I would like to throw out there that although Baltimore has had a great season, the argument could be made that until this week at Tennessee, Baltimore has not defeated a good team all season (with all due respect to Miami).
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I would love to know who on earth you consider a marquee win for the Steelers then. And after the above statement don't tell me its Baltimore.
 
Smokedawg said:
I think this games gonna be a bloodbath

just an absolutely brutal game

I think Pitt wins, but theres no way id lay more than a FG

just feels like a 13-10 game...hell maybe even a 9-6 one or a PSU/Iowa Memorial 6-4 thriller

but that being said, if the ravens defense is banged up to the point where guys arent playing, then id consider laying the points
Click to expand...


Agreed, Pitt v. Balt is always a bloodbath and -6 is a lot of points. However, I believe Pitt has the psychological and physical edge coming into this game b/c they beat Balt 2x (including once at Balt) and Balt is coming off a brutal game against Tenny where each team was taking turns having players helped off the field. Balt is banged up and I can't imagine what they are thinking knowing they have to go play one of the most physical teams in the league on the road for the second week in a row. Conversely, Pitt had a much easier time with SD, at least compared to the Balt/Ten game, and will be the healthiest it has been since the beginning of the season.
 
weeeeeeee.....

just got a call from my dad and he scored 2 free tickets to a nice, cozy corporate box for the AFC championship game..... :cheers:



STEELERS GOING TO ROLL BABY ..... HERE WE GO!!!!!
 
C-Man-

I am leaning Pitt's way as well. I think that all the people leaning Balty's way are doing so because (1) the two close games earlier in the year, (2) division rivalry and cappers feel may as well take the points, and (3) the preverbial, "Hard to beat a team 3 times" bullshit.

Personally, IMO, I think that this game depends upon Flacco. If Balty gets down early, then I think Pitt rolls and covers easily. If Balty scores early and plays from the lead, then it increases their chances significantly. Here are the situation stats for Flacco:

<table class="standard_table" style="width: 645px;" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="datatabledatahead"><td>Point Situation</td> <td>Att</td> <td>Comp</td> <td>Pct</td> <td>Yds</td> <td>Avg</td> <td>Lng</td> <td>TD</td> <td>Int</td> <td>1st</td> <td>1st%</td> <td>20+</td> <td>Sck</td> <td>Rate</td> </tr> <tr class="whiteback"> <td style="text-align: left;" width="20%">Ahead</td> <td>220</td> <td>128</td> <td>58.2</td> <td>1,590</td> <td>7.2</td> <td>70</td> <td>11</td> <td>2</td> <td>73</td> <td>33.2</td> <td>24</td> <td>11</td> <td>93.6</td> </tr><tr> </tr><tr class="ltblueback"> <td style="text-align: left;" width="20%">Ahead by 1-8 Points</td> <td>141</td> <td>83</td> <td>58.9</td> <td>1,054</td> <td>7.5</td> <td>53</td> <td>9</td> <td>1</td> <td>53</td> <td>37.6</td> <td>16</td> <td>9</td> <td>100.6</td> </tr><tr> </tr><tr class="whiteback"> <td style="text-align: left;" width="20%">Ahead by 9-16 Points</td> <td>60</td> <td>34</td> <td>56.7</td> <td>401</td> <td>6.7</td> <td>70</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>16</td> <td>26.7</td> <td>6</td> <td>0</td> <td>82.7</td> </tr><tr> </tr><tr class="ltblueback"> <td style="text-align: left;" width="20%">Behind</td> <td>136</td> <td>91</td> <td>66.9</td> <td>983</td> <td>7.2</td> <td>54</td> <td>3</td> <td>7</td> <td>47</td> <td>34.6</td> <td>9</td> <td>14</td> <td>73.9</td> </tr><tr> </tr><tr class="whiteback"> <td style="text-align: left;" width="20%">Behind by 9-16 Points</td> <td>69</td> <td>44</td> <td>63.8</td> <td>576</td> <td>8.3</td> <td>48</td> <td>2</td> <td>3</td> <td>26</td> <td>37.7</td> <td>7</td> <td>9</td> <td>81.6</td> </tr><tr> </tr><tr class="ltblueback"> <td style="text-align: left;" width="20%">Tied</td> <td>117</td> <td>58</td> <td>49.6</td> <td>694</td> <td>5.9</td> <td>48</td> <td>1</td> <td>3</td> <td>35</td> <td>29.9</td> <td>9</td> <td>7</td> <td>60.3</td> </tr><tr> </tr><tr class="whiteback"> <td style="text-align: left;" width="20%">Behind by 1-8 Points</td> <td>11</td> <td>7</td> <td>63.6</td> <td>70</td> <td>6.4</td> <td>20</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>4</td> <td>36.4</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>43.7</td> </tr><tr> </tr></tbody></table>
Flacco has not consistently shown that he has the ability to bring a team back from a significant deficit against a solid defense. In order for Balty to win this game, Flacco will have to throw the ball about 26 times or less. All five losses that Balty has this year, Flacco has thrown the ball 27 times or more....(Pitt (week 4) 31 Pass Attempts, Tennessee (week 5) 27 Pass Attempts, Indy (week 6) 38 Pass Attempts, NY Giants (week 11) 33 Pass Attempts, and finally Pittsburgh (week 15) 28 Pass Attempts. Twice this year, Flacco has passed the ball 29 times and won, this was against Cleveland and Cincy. IMO opinion Flacco will have to throw the ball well against the Pitt D if they are going to cover. McClain and McGahee cannot beat Pitt on their own.

I think that Big Ben's performance this week might have been his best all year. Tennessee was able to throw the ball against Balty's D with pretty good success. They were just killed with turnovers. In the first half, when Chris Johnson ran with success, their offense was well balanced enough to have good success against Balty's D. If Johnson plays the 2nd half, Balty loses. With Fast Willie back, Pitt now has a well balanced offense and I think will be able to put up 21-31 points on a tired Baltimore defense. I do not believe that absent a big special teams play or big turnover that Baltimore will score more than two touchdowns against this Pitt D.

Baltimore had two physical games back to back (with injuries) and I think Pitt is better rested at home and thus has a huge advantage. Good Luck, let me know your thoughts to my response.
 
Oh....and in the two playoff wins....Flacco has passed the ball 22 and 23 times respectively against Tenny and Miami.

A good play would be a parlay of Pitt ML and over 29 Pass Attempts on Flacco or Balty ML and under 30 Pass attempts for that matter
 
I'm glad you brought up the Indy game lute becuase I believe Pittsburgh's losses say almost as much about this team as their wins. They lost to Indy, NYG, Phil and Ten. The NYG and IND games were decided in the final minutes, and Pgh actually lead in both games the majority of the time. The Indy game came down to P. Manning leading his team on a game winning drive - you have to tip your hat to P. Manning for that one. The NYG game came down to an injury to Pitt's long snapper which lead to James Harrison having to fill in as long snapper with Pitt punting from their own end zone. He snapped the ball over the punter's head, the Giants got a safety, the momentum shifted and the Giants went on to win the game. This is the NFL and unless you are the 2007-08 Pats, you are going to lose a couple games, especially when you play the #1 ranked strength of schedule like Pitt did this season. These were 2 tough losses to 2 tough teams. Balt's performances against Indy and the Giants were not quite as impressive, in fact they were both noncompetitive.

Philly caught Pgh early in the season and, although they were dominated most of the game, Pgh still had a chance to win in the 4th quarter. This was by far Pitt's worst team performance of the season. I think Philly is a team that matches up very well against the Steelers and I hope they don't get passed Arz b/c that could be another long game for Steelers fans if those 2 teams meet again in the SB.

The Ten game was back and forth most of the game, despite Ben's 5 or 6 fumbles, and the game got away late. The bottom line in that game is that the Steelers had just clinched the division and were coming off a tough game against BAL - Ten was the more motivated team and Ben had his worst performance of the season (and maybe his career).

Pgh is the ONLY team in the NFL that did not get blown out or embarrassed in any game this season, and that says a lot about this team.
 
Da OMK - some really good points in your post and glad to hear you are leaning towards Pitt. I will have more time to respond to some of your specific points later. I actually have to get some work done today.
 
The one thing I will say about Flacco is that he does not have a Larry Fitzgerald on his team, so he cannot consistently get away with throwing those lucky jump balls to guys like D. Mason and M. Clayton. Pitt has some serious speed in its secondary and some incredible athletes like T. Polamalu and Ike Taylor (6'2'', 191 and can jump out of the gym) who will not be outjumped by Balt's receivers.
 
Leaning hard on Pitt right now.

Baltimore is here for 1 reason......Turnover. Their margin these last 2 games is sick. Tenny outgained them 2-1 but choked w/ a bundle of turnovers.

If Pitt can hold onto the ball they should win and cover. Flacco has shown nearly nothing this postseason, if Pitt can slow/shut down SD they certianly can do so to Flacco and Ravens O.
 
aplous....I agree. I think that Balty ONLY wins this game if they are at least (1) +2 in turnover margin and (2) they have a special teams touchdown and/or TD of 40+ yards or other big play.

Balty's offense is not capable IMO of alot of success on Sunday, partly because Harbaugh's play calling is so conservative and they dont allow Flacco to open it up.
 
I think this weekend is the end of Baltimore's run. I just do not see them winning the turnover battle like they have in the past 2 weeks. I do think it will be real physical smashmouth type of game with Pitt pulling away late. Injuries could play a big role for Baltimore as well, hearing a lot about key guys on defense being banged up for this one.
 
pitt needs to throw early don`t waste the first half trying to run willie up the middle.. Use short passes as run game early, dink and dunk baby...Have to keep balt guessing ...SPREAD THEM OUT ..Moore , Miller and Holmes need to be gameplan ...Must get early lead , get up on balt then take air out of ball..


i think one team doesn`t show up.....spread wont matter
 
It is also worth noting that although these two teams are bitter division rivals and play each other 2x each season, 8 out of the last 13 matchups have been decided by at least 6 points (7 of those 8 by double digits), and 4 out of the last 7 at Heinz Field by double digits - including the last time these 2 met in the playoffs in 2002 (Pitt 27 - Bal 10). :cheers:
 
Capt Slap and Da OMK brought up Willie Parker and I want to take this point a little further because I think he could be a huge factor in this game. Fast Willie missed the game in Pgh this year due to injury. He also missed the game last season in Balt and was pulled early in Pgh's trouncing of the Ravens at Heinz Field last season b/c the game turned into a blowout. He did play at Balt this year and ran the ball pretty well (I think he went 14 carries for 47 yds, so a little over 3 yds/carry), but he still was not completely healthy. Last night was the first time this season that I can recall the Steelers putting a fullback in front of Willie Parker and letting him run the ball with any type of rhythm. Here is Parker's line from the game yesterday:

<TABLE class=datasmall cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD colSpan=5>Rushing</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD></TD><TD>ATT</TD><TD>YDS</TD><TD>TD</TD><TD>LG</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD>Willie Parker </TD><TD>27</TD><TD>146</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>27</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

I think Parker will be important in this game b/c he is the type of RB that can exploit the Raven's defense (like C. Johnson). The last thing you want to do against the Ravens D is take an oversized running back and try to power the ball (case in point, Lendale White) - they are too physical, just like trying to run against the Steelers or Titans.

<TABLE class=datasmall cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD colSpan=5>Rushing (from Ten v. Balt on Saturday)</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD> </TD><TD>ATT</TD><TD>YDS</TD><TD>TD</TD><TD>LG</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD>Chris Johnson </TD><TD>11</TD><TD>72</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>32</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD>LenDale White </TD><TD>15</TD><TD>45</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>12</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Johnson was much more effective running the ball against Balt's defense than L. White. I think Parker is licking his chops as he finally gets an opportunity to face this Ravens team when he is healthy. Parker is the type of back whose speed can hurt the Balt defense and if they commit extra defenders to focus on shutting him down, Ben has thrown with success against Balt's defense in the past. Here are the last 3:
<TABLE class=datasmall cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD colSpan=5>Passing (12/4/08 at Balt)</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD> </TD><TD>CP/ATT</TD><TD>YDS</TD><TD>TD</TD><TD>INT</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD>Ben Roethlisberger </TD><TD>22/40</TD><TD>246</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE class=datasmall cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD colSpan=5>
Passing (9/29/08 at Pgh)
</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD> </TD><TD>CP/ATT</TD><TD>YDS</TD><TD>TD</TD><TD>INT</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD>Ben Roethlisberger </TD><TD>14/24</TD><TD>191</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE class=datasmall cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD colSpan=5>
Ben missed the game on 12/30/07 at Balt


Passing (11/5/07 at Pgh)
</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD> </TD><TD>CP/ATT</TD><TD>YDS</TD><TD>TD</TD><TD>INT</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD>Ben Roethlisberger </TD><TD>13/16</TD><TD>209</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Let's face it, Tennessee's offense SHREDDED the Balt defense. Other than at RB, Pitt's offense has better skill players at every position than Tenn's offense, and RB talent is at worst debatable considering Johnson is a rookie and Willie Parker is a 2x pro bowl selection at RB (2006 and 2007). When you add the injuries to Suggs and Rolle (not sure of current status) and the physical game Balt just played against Tennessee, I can see this game getting away from Balt early, and it has already been stated how Flacco has performed when his team is playing from behind.
 
A little nugget from an article i was reading on sportsline.com

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica]11. Enjoy it while you can, Willie Parker. There will be no 100-yard game against Baltimore. The Ravens haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher the past two years, and Parker knows it. He ran for 47 in his only appearance against them this fall and 42 in his only appearance against them a year ago[/FONT]
 
Smoke....was that a quote from the Ravens or some idiot columnist like Dennis Dodd who posted that article.

If it was a Ravens quote, that would be a great motivating tool for Pitt
 
Smokedawg said:
A little nugget from an article i was reading on sportsline.com

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica]11. Enjoy it while you can, Willie Parker. There will be no 100-yard game against Baltimore. The Ravens haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher the past two years, and Parker knows it. He ran for 47 in his only appearance against them this fall and 42 in his only appearance against them a year ago[/FONT]
Click to expand...


Good point Smokedawg- it certainly will not be easy to run against this D, but my point is that Parker is the type of RB that can do it and he is finally getting a chance to face this team when he is healthy. By the way, I am not sure the Steelers need 100 yards out of Parker to win the game. I think if Parker gets somewhere in the neighborhood of 75 yards the Steelers should win convincingly. Although none of them reached the 100yd plateau, here are some RB's that had success running against Balt this year:

Tayshard Choice, Ahmad Bradshaw, Maurice Jones-Drew, Domonic Rhodes, Chris Johnson (I think he would have broken 100 if not for the injury - he missed the entire 2H and still had over 70 yards).

Pittsburgh's D has not given up a 100-yard rusher this season either, but I haven't really gotten to Pitt's D yet, so I will save that for later.
 
Dont like Willie in this match up,willie needs big holes he doesnt break tackles and he has no moves ...Moore on the other hand can break a tackle or 2 and catch ..need to use fullback for willie
 
On the fatigue factor, not only did Balt play an extremely physical game with Tennessee last week, but recall that Balt's bye week was moved to week 2 this year because of the hurricane, so Balt has played games in 16 straight weeks. Pittsburgh has had 2 bye weeks since Balt's bye week, including the week off heading into the playoffs. We'll see how this plays out in the second half on Sunday.
 
Parker in 6 games for his career against Balt. - 92 carries, 262 yards, 2.8 ypc

I don't care who's healthy, who's not, fullback in front or two TEs. Parker is not going to have a big day on Sunday. But he probably won't need to.

Looking at the last time they met in Baltimore, the Steelers outgained Baltimore by over 100 yards and were even on turnovers, yet only won by 4. Why? A big part lies in starting field position. The Ravens had a cumulative 226 yard advantage over the course of each team's 12 possessions, averaging starting at their own 41 while the Steelers were at their own 22. That's a huge edge which is not really reproducible on a game by game basis. For example, in the first OT game the average starting field position was the 28 yard line for both teams (yards gained was almost the same too, no wonder it went to OT).

About 90 yards in edge came off of punt returns thanks to a big game from Leonhard. However he'll be coming off a concussion, so his return duties are in doubt. With the exception of that game the Steelers kick coverage has been very good this season.
 
I like the Ravens in this one. It's still extremely difficult to take down a divisional opponent three times, and I think the Ravens are playing with even more momentum.

Ravens are a little banged up which worries me a bit, but I think they'll pull it out 24-20.
 
NY Sports Fan said:
I like the Ravens in this one. It's still extremely difficult to take down a divisional opponent three times, and I think the Ravens are playing with even more momentum.

Ravens are a little banged up which worries me a bit, but I think they'll pull it out 24-20.
Click to expand...

Teams going for the three game sweep are 11-7. I think Pittsburgh busts out in a big way here.
 
I agree with Gandolf on the subject of field position. You can make a team one dimentional if they're consistantly backed up in their own end zone. Field position is an extremely important factor when calling plays.

Everyone seems to be on Pitt (except Brewer), and as far as discussions go, the only reason to take Balt is the number its at.
 
malapeet said:
I agree with Gandolf on the subject of field position. You can make a team one dimentional if they're consistantly backed up in their own end zone. Field position is an extremely important factor when calling plays.

Everyone seems to be on Pitt (except Brewer), and as far as discussions go, the only reason to take Balt is the number its at.
Click to expand...

That may be true at CTG, but I am seeing 68% of wagers on Baltimore and I suspect even though Pitt is a public team, most casual players will be all over Balt +6.5 in what many consider to be "a field goal game".
 
I sure hope the public is on Balty! I think the home teams make a statement this week for the first time in the 2009 playoffs.
 
Here is an interesting fact for you: Pittsburgh Steelers in the playoffs with Willie Parker at starting RB are 5-0 SU and ATS. :cheers:

I saw Fast Willie being interviewed and he said he was excited to finally be 100% healthy and was looking forward to the game on Sunday. He specifically mentioned the success Chris Johnson had running the ball against the Balt defense and noted they had a similar style of running. :36_7_1: Watch out Ratbirds
 
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