MLB Parlay Picks of the Day
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
Wednesday, April 7, 2021 at 12:35 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio
Chad Kuhl
Cincinnati’s notoriously hitters-friendly ballpark is unfriendly to a lot of pitchers.
One of those pitchers is Pittsburgh starter Chad Kuhl.
In Great American, Kuhl is 0-2 with a 4.60 ERA in three career starts. He’s allowed more home runs in that ballpark than in any other ballpark except for his home ballpark in Pittsburgh.
Kuhl’s struggles in Cincinnati help explain why active Red batters have performed so strongly against him.
In a combined total of 77 at-bats, Red batters hit .299 and slug .545 against Kuhl.
Joey Votto, for example, is 7-for-14 (.500) lifetime against Kuhl with three doubles and a home run.
One respect in which Red batters match up well with Kuhl is in pitch type.
Kuhl predominantly throws a slider. Currently, Red batters rank 10th in slugging against this pitch thrown by righties.
Luis Castillo
Red starter Luis Castillo had a strong Spring Training in which he allowed two runs in 9.1 innings.
Knowing this fact allows us to regard his Regular Season debut as an aberration.
Castillo was definitely affected by awful and untimely defending that led to more runs and that prevented half-innings from ending sooner than they would have.
Likely, Castillo was also affected by the cold weather.
But playing Pittsburgh today provides him a great chance to bounce back.
In 10 career starts against the Pirates, Castillo yields a 2.64 ERA.
Of the six current Pirate batters who have more than four at-bats against Castillo, only one hits above .250.
Castillo’s strong pitching will help Cincinnati secure a dominant lead against the Pirates.
In doing so, the Reds will maintain their strong form: they have won four consecutive games, each one by multiple runs and two by more than 10 runs.
So for the first leg of our parlay, we will take the Reds on the run-line (RL).
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs
Wednesday, April 7, 2021 at 2:20 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois
Ignore Brandon Woodruff’s First Start
On the surface, it seems like Milwaukee starter Brandon Woodruff had a rough first start of the season.
His ERA, however, belies a superb FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding). This latter statistic conveys a more accurate story about how he performed.
Woodruff’s ERA is largely a product of the .462 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) that he yielded.
This BABIP is, statistically speaking, anomalously high.
In a sense, Woodruff’s high BABIP was also unlucky. It would not be unlucky, but rather deserved, if his pitches were getting crushed.
But this is not the case. Instead, he was yielding a lot of soft contact. Conversely, he yielded a lower rate of hard contact than his career average.
Woodruff vs. Cub Batters
A similar story — about FIP being much lower than ERA — can be told about Woodruff’s last start in Wrigley Field.
Typically, however, he does very well ERA-wise against Cub batters.
In a combined total of 74 at-bats, active Cubs hit .189 and slug .324 against Woodruff.
As a righty who primarily throws a sinker and a fastball, Woodruff matches up well against the Cubs.
They rank 23rd in slugging against these pitches combined from righties.
Kyle Hendricks
Like Woodruff, Hendricks finds himself in a strong bounce-back opportunity.
Every year, one of his first couple starts tends to be awful. His opening start was just such a start.
Hendricks’ primary problem with his control, which is something that he characteristically excels at having.
In terms of form, it’s really only Brewer batters — and not Hendricks — who should worry. They have exceeded four runs in only one of five games so far.
Before scoring four yesterday, they had scored a combined total of five runs in their previous three games.
Brewer batters should expect to struggle today given their career BA of .220 and career slugging rate of .319 in 182 combined at-bats against Hendricks.
Hendricks will help keep the game’s first five innings low scoring.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins
Wednesday, April 7, 2021 at 4:10 p.m. ET at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida
Jack Flaherty
Miami is the perfect opponent for Cardinal starter Jack Flaherty to bounce back against.
Aside from one game, on April 3, the Marlin offense has been very problematic with runners in scoring position and in general.
In their past two games, both against St. Louis, the Marlins have accrued a combined total of three runs.
One pitch against which the Marlins are struggling is the fastball thrown by righties.
They rank 26th in slugging against this pitch from righties. This detail is important to note because the fastball is Flaherty’s favorite pitch.
Pablo Lopez
As a righty who doesn’t throw his fastball 40 percent or more of the time, Pablo Lopez matches up well with the Cardinal lineup.
In his career, Lopez has been at his best against same-handed batters. They hit .219 and slug .365 against him.
Lopez’s success against righties is important because the Cardinal lineup is very righty-heavy.
Its top hitters — most notably Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado — are right-handed. In contrast, its weaker hitters are lefties.
Lopez’s success today will create continuity with his strong season opener and with his solid Spring training.
After yielding a 2.63 ERA in Spring Training, he threw five shutout innings in his first start of the season.
His positive form will help secure a low-scoring start to this game.
Best Bet: Parlay Reds RL, Brewers/Cubs First-Five Under, Cardinals/Marlins First-Five Under (Odds TBA)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
Wednesday, April 7, 2021 at 12:35 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio
Chad Kuhl
Cincinnati’s notoriously hitters-friendly ballpark is unfriendly to a lot of pitchers.
One of those pitchers is Pittsburgh starter Chad Kuhl.
In Great American, Kuhl is 0-2 with a 4.60 ERA in three career starts. He’s allowed more home runs in that ballpark than in any other ballpark except for his home ballpark in Pittsburgh.
Kuhl’s struggles in Cincinnati help explain why active Red batters have performed so strongly against him.
In a combined total of 77 at-bats, Red batters hit .299 and slug .545 against Kuhl.
Joey Votto, for example, is 7-for-14 (.500) lifetime against Kuhl with three doubles and a home run.
One respect in which Red batters match up well with Kuhl is in pitch type.
Kuhl predominantly throws a slider. Currently, Red batters rank 10th in slugging against this pitch thrown by righties.
Luis Castillo
Red starter Luis Castillo had a strong Spring Training in which he allowed two runs in 9.1 innings.
Knowing this fact allows us to regard his Regular Season debut as an aberration.
Castillo was definitely affected by awful and untimely defending that led to more runs and that prevented half-innings from ending sooner than they would have.
Likely, Castillo was also affected by the cold weather.
But playing Pittsburgh today provides him a great chance to bounce back.
In 10 career starts against the Pirates, Castillo yields a 2.64 ERA.
Of the six current Pirate batters who have more than four at-bats against Castillo, only one hits above .250.
Castillo’s strong pitching will help Cincinnati secure a dominant lead against the Pirates.
In doing so, the Reds will maintain their strong form: they have won four consecutive games, each one by multiple runs and two by more than 10 runs.
So for the first leg of our parlay, we will take the Reds on the run-line (RL).
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs
Wednesday, April 7, 2021 at 2:20 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois
Ignore Brandon Woodruff’s First Start
On the surface, it seems like Milwaukee starter Brandon Woodruff had a rough first start of the season.
His ERA, however, belies a superb FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding). This latter statistic conveys a more accurate story about how he performed.
Woodruff’s ERA is largely a product of the .462 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) that he yielded.
This BABIP is, statistically speaking, anomalously high.
In a sense, Woodruff’s high BABIP was also unlucky. It would not be unlucky, but rather deserved, if his pitches were getting crushed.
But this is not the case. Instead, he was yielding a lot of soft contact. Conversely, he yielded a lower rate of hard contact than his career average.
Woodruff vs. Cub Batters
A similar story — about FIP being much lower than ERA — can be told about Woodruff’s last start in Wrigley Field.
Typically, however, he does very well ERA-wise against Cub batters.
In a combined total of 74 at-bats, active Cubs hit .189 and slug .324 against Woodruff.
As a righty who primarily throws a sinker and a fastball, Woodruff matches up well against the Cubs.
They rank 23rd in slugging against these pitches combined from righties.
Kyle Hendricks
Like Woodruff, Hendricks finds himself in a strong bounce-back opportunity.
Every year, one of his first couple starts tends to be awful. His opening start was just such a start.
Hendricks’ primary problem with his control, which is something that he characteristically excels at having.
In terms of form, it’s really only Brewer batters — and not Hendricks — who should worry. They have exceeded four runs in only one of five games so far.
Before scoring four yesterday, they had scored a combined total of five runs in their previous three games.
Brewer batters should expect to struggle today given their career BA of .220 and career slugging rate of .319 in 182 combined at-bats against Hendricks.
Hendricks will help keep the game’s first five innings low scoring.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins
Wednesday, April 7, 2021 at 4:10 p.m. ET at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida
Jack Flaherty
Miami is the perfect opponent for Cardinal starter Jack Flaherty to bounce back against.
Aside from one game, on April 3, the Marlin offense has been very problematic with runners in scoring position and in general.
In their past two games, both against St. Louis, the Marlins have accrued a combined total of three runs.
One pitch against which the Marlins are struggling is the fastball thrown by righties.
They rank 26th in slugging against this pitch from righties. This detail is important to note because the fastball is Flaherty’s favorite pitch.
Pablo Lopez
As a righty who doesn’t throw his fastball 40 percent or more of the time, Pablo Lopez matches up well with the Cardinal lineup.
In his career, Lopez has been at his best against same-handed batters. They hit .219 and slug .365 against him.
Lopez’s success against righties is important because the Cardinal lineup is very righty-heavy.
Its top hitters — most notably Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado — are right-handed. In contrast, its weaker hitters are lefties.
Lopez’s success today will create continuity with his strong season opener and with his solid Spring training.
After yielding a 2.63 ERA in Spring Training, he threw five shutout innings in his first start of the season.
His positive form will help secure a low-scoring start to this game.
Best Bet: Parlay Reds RL, Brewers/Cubs First-Five Under, Cardinals/Marlins First-Five Under (Odds TBA)
