MLB Opening Day Parlay: A Bet That Pays (+196)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Thursday, April 7, 2022 at 4:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
JT Brubaker
Pirate starter JT Brubaker suffered a poor rookie season in 2020 where he surrendered a 4.94 ERA.
Last year, he took another step back, yielding a 5.36 ERA. His strikeout and walk rates improved, but he allowed .89 more home runs per nine innings.
In order to discern which Brubaker we're more likely to see today -- the bad one or the very bad one -- we should investigate the basis for his regression in performance.
In 2021, his pitches yielded a significantly higher hard hit rate than in 2020.
As illustrated in heat maps, he often left his pitches in more vulnerable locations within the strike zone.
In order to become a stronger pitcher, Brubaker will need to be more consistent with his location by more often locating his pitches further away from the middle parts of the zone.
Spring Training does not suggest that he'll improve this season with respect to his vulnerability to the home run ball because, based on ratio of home runs allowed to pitches thrown, he allowed homers at a higher rate than he did last regular season.
Power Cards
The Cardinals certainly have plenty of power in their lineup with which they can exploit Brubaker's proneness to conceding home runs.
Last season, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Tyler O'Neill each amassed over 30 home runs.
In Spring Training, Goldy led the Cards with four home runs.
Adam Wainwright
One should generally be way more inclined to invest in Cardinal starter Adam Wainwright at home than on the road.
The Cardinal icon's career ERA at home is 2.85 compared to 3.94 on the road. Last year, his home ERA was 2.74.
Despite previous complaints about his ability to perform at a high level, Wainwright's FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) suggests that he became stronger and more improved last season relative to most recent seasons.
His characteristically strong control makes it easier for him to avoid giving up home runs.,
Also, his higher pitch quality relative to Brubaker's gives him a higher margin of error.
With stronger offerings, like a curveball that yielded a .333 slugging rate and a sinker that yielded a .225 slugging rate last year, he can make mistakes with his location and remain unscathed.
Batting Splits
Wainwright has faced six active Pirate batters at least nine times.
Of those batters, Bryan Reynolds' BA is the highest against Wainwright. That BA is a paltry .208.
In 83 at-bats, active Pirate hitters have mustered two extra-base hits.
Conversely, four active Cardinal hitters are slugging .500 or much higher in their career against Brubaker.
Look out, for example, for Dylan Carlson who is 4-for-10 with a double lifetime facing Brubaker.
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Thursday, April 7, 2022 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix
Fernando Who?
A lot is being made of Fernando Tatis' injury.
But there is still a lot of power and ability in San Diego's lineup.
While last year represented a down year for a lot of these hitters, they also weren't so impressive in 2019 before they enjoyed a strong 2020.
In that season, Manny Machado and Wil Myers earned an OPS (on-base plus slugging) of .950 or higher while Jake Cronenworth was not far behind.
Luke Voit also looks primed to stay healthy and so return to his 2020 form where he produced a .610 slugging rate.
Batting Splits
Whether these Padre hitters have good seasons is really immaterial to the outcome of this game.
My point was just to say that these are evidently very capable hitters.
I think that they will behave like the solid hitters they were in 2020 because of their history with Diamondback starter Madison Bumgarner.
In seven career at-bats against him, Cronenworth enjoys an .857 slugging rate while, in a much larger data sample, Machado slugs .515 and Myers .607 against Bumgarner.
Offensively, Arizona can also inflict abundant damage as it has four batters who slug at least .600 in over 10 career at-bats against Padre starter Yu Darvish.
Bullpen
The full-game "over" is particularly enticing because of how awful Arizona's bullpen was last year
Only one bullpen yielded a worse ERA while Arizona's WHIP was the worst.
Modest improvements, including a closer who likely won't even make an appearance, are just that -- modest.
Parlay Verdict
Expect St. Louis to triumph behind a clear starting pitcher advantage while both Padre and Diamondback lineups overpower the opposing starting pitcher after which the Padre lineup will enjoy facing Arizona's inferior bullpen.
Best Bet: Parlay Cardinals ML at -182 & Padres/Diamondbacks Over 9 at -110 at +196 odds with BetOnline
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Thursday, April 7, 2022 at 4:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
JT Brubaker
Pirate starter JT Brubaker suffered a poor rookie season in 2020 where he surrendered a 4.94 ERA.
Last year, he took another step back, yielding a 5.36 ERA. His strikeout and walk rates improved, but he allowed .89 more home runs per nine innings.
In order to discern which Brubaker we're more likely to see today -- the bad one or the very bad one -- we should investigate the basis for his regression in performance.
In 2021, his pitches yielded a significantly higher hard hit rate than in 2020.
As illustrated in heat maps, he often left his pitches in more vulnerable locations within the strike zone.
In order to become a stronger pitcher, Brubaker will need to be more consistent with his location by more often locating his pitches further away from the middle parts of the zone.
Spring Training does not suggest that he'll improve this season with respect to his vulnerability to the home run ball because, based on ratio of home runs allowed to pitches thrown, he allowed homers at a higher rate than he did last regular season.
Power Cards
The Cardinals certainly have plenty of power in their lineup with which they can exploit Brubaker's proneness to conceding home runs.
Last season, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Tyler O'Neill each amassed over 30 home runs.
In Spring Training, Goldy led the Cards with four home runs.
Adam Wainwright
One should generally be way more inclined to invest in Cardinal starter Adam Wainwright at home than on the road.
The Cardinal icon's career ERA at home is 2.85 compared to 3.94 on the road. Last year, his home ERA was 2.74.
Despite previous complaints about his ability to perform at a high level, Wainwright's FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) suggests that he became stronger and more improved last season relative to most recent seasons.
His characteristically strong control makes it easier for him to avoid giving up home runs.,
Also, his higher pitch quality relative to Brubaker's gives him a higher margin of error.
With stronger offerings, like a curveball that yielded a .333 slugging rate and a sinker that yielded a .225 slugging rate last year, he can make mistakes with his location and remain unscathed.
Batting Splits
Wainwright has faced six active Pirate batters at least nine times.
Of those batters, Bryan Reynolds' BA is the highest against Wainwright. That BA is a paltry .208.
In 83 at-bats, active Pirate hitters have mustered two extra-base hits.
Conversely, four active Cardinal hitters are slugging .500 or much higher in their career against Brubaker.
Look out, for example, for Dylan Carlson who is 4-for-10 with a double lifetime facing Brubaker.
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Thursday, April 7, 2022 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix
Fernando Who?
A lot is being made of Fernando Tatis' injury.
But there is still a lot of power and ability in San Diego's lineup.
While last year represented a down year for a lot of these hitters, they also weren't so impressive in 2019 before they enjoyed a strong 2020.
In that season, Manny Machado and Wil Myers earned an OPS (on-base plus slugging) of .950 or higher while Jake Cronenworth was not far behind.
Luke Voit also looks primed to stay healthy and so return to his 2020 form where he produced a .610 slugging rate.
Batting Splits
Whether these Padre hitters have good seasons is really immaterial to the outcome of this game.
My point was just to say that these are evidently very capable hitters.
I think that they will behave like the solid hitters they were in 2020 because of their history with Diamondback starter Madison Bumgarner.
In seven career at-bats against him, Cronenworth enjoys an .857 slugging rate while, in a much larger data sample, Machado slugs .515 and Myers .607 against Bumgarner.
Offensively, Arizona can also inflict abundant damage as it has four batters who slug at least .600 in over 10 career at-bats against Padre starter Yu Darvish.
Bullpen
The full-game "over" is particularly enticing because of how awful Arizona's bullpen was last year
Only one bullpen yielded a worse ERA while Arizona's WHIP was the worst.
Modest improvements, including a closer who likely won't even make an appearance, are just that -- modest.
Parlay Verdict
Expect St. Louis to triumph behind a clear starting pitcher advantage while both Padre and Diamondback lineups overpower the opposing starting pitcher after which the Padre lineup will enjoy facing Arizona's inferior bullpen.
Best Bet: Parlay Cardinals ML at -182 & Padres/Diamondbacks Over 9 at -110 at +196 odds with BetOnline
