Pirate MNF Titans/Colts

[Pirate88]

:smiley_acbe:Titans 6-0 su and ats and in control of division. Colts 3-3 su/ats and Peyton coming off bad game against GB, Addai reported as out, Sanders out, not the same Colts team as before. Titans -4 easy win? Not so fast my friends, Titans have played one team with winning record, Balt with rookie QB and trailed most of the game before a little zebra help. Titan's dominant defense, yes against some of the worst offenses, KC BALT MN HOU CINC JAX, look inside the numbers K. Collins completing 56.72%, 3td/3int and rating 74.4, IF Colts can control the run, K. Collins will not win this game, Peyton will be Peyton of old and Kerry will remember he is Kerry, the play COLTS +4, Gl to all, let's CASH:smiley_acbe:

 

[ddk997]

going against you tonight pirate, the main that thing concerns me about the colts is...how will peyton be the old peyton when his offensive line is horrible? Hope you got to see last week performance against the packers. Good health

 

[Pirate88]

:smiley_acbe:I agree, this is probably the weakest Colt team in recent memory, offense and defense and strongest Titans team on paper. Good health. Going with the Colts regular play

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

The Colts have the biggest edge in this game which is worth a TD at least- The underdog mentality advantage.

When the Colts players know they are Underdogs it is worth 7 points IMO-- Just like the Giants were underdogs yesterday teams take it personally--- Athletes when they are DOGS play better and looser and show to the world what's up--

THis is why the real line is COlts -3 not Titans -4-

 

[G-Man]

:shake:Good health Pirate. We usually find the same side on night games:shake:

 

[G-Man]

The Colts have the biggest edge in this game which is worth a TD at least- The underdog mentality advantage.

When the Colts players know they are Underdogs it is worth 7 points IMO-- Just like the Giants were underdogs yesterday teams take it personally--- Athletes when they are DOGS play better and looser and show to the world what's up--

THis is why the real line is COlts -3 not Titans -4-

We have a negative scoring team on the road and I cant find any reason for them to be favored.:shake:

Good health Sammy. :shake:

 

[E.T.G.]

The Colts have the biggest edge in this game which is worth a TD at least- The underdog mentality advantage.

When the Colts players know they are Underdogs it is worth 7 points IMO-- Just like the Giants were underdogs yesterday teams take it personally--- Athletes when they are DOGS play better and looser and show to the world what's up--

THis is why the real line is COlts -3 not Titans -4-

I just don't buy into that line of thinking at all. Maybe some teams perform better as Dogs than Favs, I'll aceept that point. What I won't accept is motivation being equal to 7 points here. The biggest edge in this game is the Tenn DL versus the Colts OL, its not even close. You have an undefeated home team on Monday Night Football wiht a fan base pumped up and a team "MOTIVATED" to show the world that their in a change in power in the division.

 

[Dollaz]

This line should be Titans by 6-7 points. They are far superior than the Colts are. Much better running team and much better run defense. The Titans strength fits into the Cots weakness. The fact that Addai and Sanders are out really hurt them. Manning hasn't been himself this year behind a shaky offensive line.

But, that Vegas made this 4 scares the crap out of me. Is something up? Why would they put out a line so low, Tenn is clearly the better team.

Is it because the Colts are such a public team?

 

[J-Aims05]

:cheers: on the same side...GL tonight bro

 

[SportsNut]

How can anyone say the Titans are a far superior team . Based on what ? They couldnt even blowout KC w/o LJ. What game should they have lost on their schedule in 2008 ? Probably toughest game was @ Balt and well we all know how that went they should have lost but caught a break. The same Balt team in a flat spot after that game went to Indy and got torched . I dont think Tenny would manhandle Balt even if home. They also had the benefit of playing 3 teams who were caught in tough spots at home Jax , Houston and Minnesota . Jags opened the season with both RB's less then 100% and Garrard is not beating many teams through the air. Houston was playing sloppy ball and really still in the early stages of finding out how good Slaton was . Would expect a much different result if they played today . The HOU defense struggled but the offense self destructed more then anything and missed numerous chances to score . With Minny they faced a team going through a QB change and in fairness to ole Gus he needed some work to get back into th emix. Even still he is basically Kerry Collins with slightily better playmakers around him . Also think Minny had lost Henderson as well . Tenny benefitted from 3 short fields to get 3 TDS I recall but not positive on. Vikes did okay passing the ball that day.

Look @ Indy schedule Bears , Ravens , Jags who did beat them but it was a tight game and last second loss really not much different bewteen how Indy played Jax and Tenny did but Jaxs backs were healthy by then. On the road @ Houston , @ GB , @ Minny .....Indy' has not played impressively away but still managed to go 2-1 . When they have been bad they have looked terrible .

A healthy Colts teams is still -3/4 vs Tenny on a neutral site so even if they are equal at best one could say Tenny should be -3 maybe -3.5 . Addai minor loss vs Tenny and Sanders while a big loss seems Tenny has always ran well vs Indy but still struggled to score in the past . Thats really best case scenario IMO . I know as each week passes Balt leap frogs them as Flacco continues to improve . Tenny is good because they are fundamentally sound and dont lose games but what happens now when they NEED to make plays to win a game ?? That will be the key . Would realistically make Tenny -2/-2.5 here at most .

Beating weak teams because you have a good defense doesnt prove much .

Tenny may very well prove they are an elite team but to date nothing they have done really suggests it. Houston self destructed on offense as did Minny , Jags and really CIncy lost by a TD , Balt was a gift and KC is terrible . Bad offenses vs good defenses are always great matchups for the better defense ...always and regardless of sport .....

Wish everyone GL . Have been wrong on a few Tenny games of late but this is basically their highest spread (-4.5 vs Houston at home and -9 @ KC which doesnt count really) and a rare time Colts are dogged in past few years when healthy (3-1 ATS and 3-0 ATS catching better then a FG)

Manning has been able to throw for 300+ yds in the past vs Tenny , is off a game where he threw to pick 6's so a nice bounce back spot for him and Tenny facing some decent but weaker offenses has been thrown on and seen the ball moved . key will be how the fare in 3rd and short IMO . COlts OL will probably reshuffled for tonight as well.

:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

I just don't buy into that line of thinking at all. Maybe some teams perform better as Dogs than Favs, I'll aceept that point. What I won't accept is motivation being equal to 7 points here. The biggest edge in this game is the Tenn DL versus the Colts OL, its not even close. You have an undefeated home team on Monday Night Football wiht a fan base pumped up and a team "MOTIVATED" to show the world that their in a change in power in the division.

ETG ,

Think in terms of role fav or dog its more about human nature then anything else . Especially with good teams who are rarely dogged they tend to relish the chance to prove doubters wrong . Usually you can expect a great effort in those games . When your favored complicency is a huge issue for some teams . Could be a play on occassion on defense where they are soft or a play on offense . Just little things here and there that can play a role . Some teams have that killer instinct and can ice teams while others cant ....

Think its very relevant when understanding a teams profile . However I agree thats really not something reflected in a spread . Also good points on the rest which I agree with . The problem is are they really that good ? That DL is very good but some banged up Titans across the front and undersized CBs as well . Indy's OL might be improved with Ugoh possibly returning as well in addition to Saturday's recent return. While it was home and in a favorable spot for Indy they showed they can still disect a very good defense (Balt) .

Interesting game and really think a FG decides it and while Tenny by 3 doesnt suprise the whole pts doesnt matter on MNF angles plays as well ......

:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

Any team 6-0 ATS is bound to start getting overvalued at some point . This is basically consecutive weeks now where they have their highest lines . It's also funny that NE matched into Indy with a perfect ATS mark and lofty chalk managed to win but failed to cover . Does it happen again ?? Now if the answer is well Indy is a so called public team then look at their season . They were undervalued at home vs Balt then overvalued the following week @ GB . Previous they looked cheapt at Minny and Houston but in the end were priced just right . I dont think Chi is worse then Tenny is anything possibly better but Colts started the season as -10 chalks vs them despite a QB who hadnt played a snap yet vs a top defense . So the books have clearly adjusted downwards on Indy based on their play and even fluctuated week to week recently . So dont buy into Indy is a public team without at least acknowledging books have adjusted pretty strong Indys expectations . A year ago Indy was -7 now they are +4 @ Tenny so I feel the 08 Colts is reflected in this line and still a smidge high ......

 

[Dollaz]

These teams played each other last year and Indy won by 2. Now the Colts are missing Addai (the backups are a huge step down) and Sanders(same thing). The Colts are a completely different team without Sanders. There run defense goes from bad to awful.

Now, the schedule has been a little weak. The 3 best teams they've played are Jax, Min, and Balt. Min, Balt, and the Titans are kinda similar teams.

The Colts really struggled at Min. AP had 160 yards rushing, by the way and I believe Sandes played that game. They benefited because Minn just fell apart. They were able to manage 25 yards rushing in that game and that was with Addai. Because Minn pass defense is so bad, the Colts were able to take advantage in the 2nd half. Tenn pass defense is far superior to Minny's. The Colts won't be able to line up and pass on the Titans all day.

The Colts obviously should have never won at Houston and got blown out at GB.

Part of the reason I say the Titans are far superior is they are playing at home and the Colts are missing key players. Outside of Manning, Addai and Sanders maybe the 2 most important players on the Colts. The Colts are also missing Hayden, Lilja, and possibly Jackson. The Colts achilles heel has always been the running game and that fits the Titans strength. Really, can anyone see the Titans not running for 150 yards tonight? And with all the injuries to the secondary, when the Titans do pass, are the Colts gonna be able to stop them?

On the other side of the ball, the Titans feature the best defensive line in football going against a banged up O-line that has been struggling. Manning has not had a lot of time to throw the ball this year. Without a running threat, he should have even less time tonight. I really don't see the Colts moving the ball much on the Titans....not with injuries to the O-line and no Addai.

The difference I see the game is the defenses. Special teams are a wash. Tenn is the 3rd ranked defense, 1st against the pass (according to footballoutsiders), 6th against the run. Indy is 14th, 12th against the pass and 21st against the rush.

I haven't organized my thoughts and just threw some stuff together, but with the current group of players tonight, I feel that Tenn is the far superior team. They are also playing at home and will not be overlooking the Colts. They should be able to move the ball on the Colts on the ground and force the Colts to be pass happy on defense. And I believe the Titans are the best coached team in the NFL. I'd feel a lot more comfortable if it was 3 because there is decent chance that it's a close game. But, I just see the Titans controlling both lines of scrimmage and in most games, that's the difference. 23-14 Titans.

Good health to all.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

 

[ljc_267]

Man Nut you write a novel everytime you post, haha, but I agree with what you said in the first part of your first post.

Finally I found two people on the Colts

 

[Dollaz]

Im not sure how alive the Colts came on offense vs. Baltimore. Baltimore had 5 turnovers. They had a couple long td drives, but the others were on short fields.

4th Quarter really doesn't count cause the game was out of hand.

1st Qtr:
3 plays -8 yards

4 plays 79 yards (Long td pass to Harrison)

10 plays 61 yards (td)- long drive, but were given a rather short field to work with.
Excellent drive though.

4 plays- 9 yards- field goal

2nd Qtr:

4 plays- 14 yards
3 plays- 2 yards
5 plays- 52 yards- short field td. 38 yard run by rhodes
2 plays- -2 yards (kneel down)

3rd Qtr:

11 plays 80 yards( legit touchdown, long drive)
9 plays 15 yards


Good luck with your play Nut, I always enjoy your analysis. Disagree here.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Man Nut you write a novel everytime you post, haha, but I agree with what you said in the first part of your first post.

Finally I found two people on the Colts

I'm all over the Colts-----

If it was easy as people think it is to run over a team in the NFL the line would be higher for starters--

This is not college football, this is the NFL--

Indy in a major Heart situation- they need the win or they are giong to be known as a former good team and people will write them off--

Manning knows that Brady is done and now Matt Ryan and Drew Brees are going to be the future stars at QB along with ELI manning- so basically this is probably Peytons last chance to salvage his career as the best QB.

 

[MusicCityGambler]

Nut- I love ya bro, but I seriously need whatever you smoke. For someone who tosses around hypotheticals as liberally as you do why not throw out the fact that the Colts could EASILY and probably should be 1-5 heading into tonights game.

Schedules? Since when has Indy's schedule been the Bataan Death March? They've lost two home games and got beat handily by the Packers. The Titans-Jags game was not as close as the score indicated. If Collins started and played the whole game, the Titans win by 17-20 points. Don't read anything into the Baltimore game being close. Road game against a good team and those teams HATE each other. The Titans road will get tougher after tonight but 6-0 is 6-0 and if you want to rationalize how a team that is genuinely fortunate to be .500 is as good as a team that hasn't been defeated in six games and has the best point differential in the NFL, then go ahead.

I'm pretty sure when you're three games behind a team after six played and you're near the bottom in running and stopping the run that team is in no position to think they are better than their record indicates despite a solid track record in the recent past.

I know you don't buy the Titans. Even if you don't it's just insane to deny the obvious reality that they are currently a better team than the Colts.

The Colts have a chance tonight because it's a division game, they need it,they have Peyton Manning and the weaker team wins all the time in the NFL like the Browns did agains the Giants.

 

[Pirate88]

Does anyone see Manning throwing for over 300? They are not going to run the Ohio State offense to have any chance. Manning will be a gunslinger tonight, win or lose. BTW in last year's game at Titan's we see similiar numbers and Manning threw for over 300 and they did jump out ahead 6-0 on TD, missed xp and led 16-6 at half. VY rushed 5/53 but Collins is a statue, equally erractic and prone to error, remember his career history, not just this year.

 

[SportsNut]

These teams played each other last year and Indy won by 2. Now the Colts are missing Addai (the backups are a huge step down) and Sanders(same thing). The Colts are a completely different team without Sanders. There run defense goes from bad to awful.

Now, the schedule has been a little weak. The 3 best teams they've played are Jax, Min, and Balt. Min, Balt, and the Titans are kinda similar teams.

The Colts really struggled at Min. AP had 160 yards rushing, by the way and I believe Sandes played that game. They benefited because Minn just fell apart. They were able to manage 25 yards rushing in that game and that was with Addai. Because Minn pass defense is so bad, the Colts were able to take advantage in the 2nd half. Tenn pass defense is far superior to Minny's. The Colts won't be able to line up and pass on the Titans all day.

The Colts obviously should have never won at Houston and got blown out at GB.

Part of the reason I say the Titans are far superior is they are playing at home and the Colts are missing key players. Outside of Manning, Addai and Sanders maybe the 2 most important players on the Colts. The Colts are also missing Hayden, Lilja, and possibly Jackson. The Colts achilles heel has always been the running game and that fits the Titans strength. Really, can anyone see the Titans not running for 150 yards tonight? And with all the injuries to the secondary, when the Titans do pass, are the Colts gonna be able to stop them?

On the other side of the ball, the Titans feature the best defensive line in football going against a banged up O-line that has been struggling. Manning has not had a lot of time to throw the ball this year. Without a running threat, he should have even less time tonight. I really don't see the Colts moving the ball much on the Titans....not with injuries to the O-line and no Addai.

The difference I see the game is the defenses. Special teams are a wash. Tenn is the 3rd ranked defense, 1st against the pass (according to footballoutsiders), 6th against the run. Indy is 14th, 12th against the pass and 21st against the rush.

I haven't organized my thoughts and just threw some stuff together, but with the current group of players tonight, I feel that Tenn is the far superior team. They are also playing at home and will not be overlooking the Colts. They should be able to move the ball on the Colts on the ground and force the Colts to be pass happy on defense. And I believe the Titans are the best coached team in the NFL. I'd feel a lot more comfortable if it was 3 because there is decent chance that it's a close game. But, I just see the Titans controlling both lines of scrimmage and in most games, that's the difference. 23-14 Titans.

Good health to all.

Nice post bro.

Tenny has played well vs Indy in the past 4 meetings . By no means is this an easy decision IMO either way . Indy is a wounded champion and will be fighting here while Tenny is trying to reach the COlts previous level. Guess big question for me is how much better is Tenny from 07 . Really not sure they are better or improved from last season as much as most teams really taking 1 sometimes to 2 steps backs. Most of the teams they played so far have regressed since last season especially Jax and Cincy . While Indy is battling injury how much have they fallen back ? Really not sure they have lost much outside of trying to replace key injured playrs with inferior players . Which still is an isue though . I do think Vinateri is a question mark on some levels . The Indy OL has battled injury , Addai , Clark , even mainstays Manning & Harrison are returning from injury .

So the gap has narrowed but I am not sold that Tenny is better then last year .

Now back to that last meeting @ Tenny by two . Colts left a TON of points OTB in that game and I mean a TON . Tenny lost by 2 but also scored a TD mid 4th Q to close the gap. Its not like Indy came back and beat them as Tenny chased the Colts most of the night . In the 1st H Colts alternated TD , Punt , TD , Punt and put together a great drivbe with 1:12 before half that ended inside the Tenny 5 and went 7plays 79yds but only got them 3 points . So time may have cost them an extra 4 pts .

After the Half they opened it with a decent drive which produced a FG , when backed up on their own 1 Manning was picked leading to a Tenny TD shortly thereafter (15 yddrive) . Colts ball again and they go 12 plays and 78 yds but stopped at Tenny 2 for a FG attempt . Another chance inside the 5 that ends in 3 but that happens vs good defenses . After the kcik Tenny shortly thereafter fumbles and hands back field position to the Colts at the Tenny 24 . Unlike Tenny who took advantage of teh Manning pick and scored a TD , the Colts were stopped on 3rd and 1 for a loss and somehow missed a 36 yd FG. So again they lost 3 to 7 pts . Which now is when Tenny scored that 4th Q TD to cut it 2 pts now also Vinateri missed the 1st XP so really it should have been a FG game ontop of the other mistakes...(settling for 2 FGs inside the 5 and after a turnover getting stopped at 3rd and 1 on the 16 then missing a FG) . So better execution for Indy really makes this a much different game . They left 4 gimme pts bewteen the XP and missed 36 yf FG and another 12 by settling for FGs rather then TDs inside Tenny 5 yd line plus having to attempt that 36yd FG after great field position . On the other hand tenny had a 15 yd td drive after an Indy INT , scored the other TD after COlts recovered a fumble , lost yards on 3rd and 1 , then missed a FG from 36 yds = HUGE momentum swing .

The Colts had every reason for a letdown in their first road game after unveiling their title banner before the opening 41-10 rout of New Orleans. And they played without starting linebackers Freddy Keiaho (right elbow) and Rob Morris (ribs).

Indianapolis twice had the ball at the Tennessee 8 and had to settle for field goals. They even came up with a fumble when linebacker Tyjuan Hagler, starting in place of Keiaho, recovered at the beginning of the fourth period.

Manning had his own chance to seal the victory. But Titans cornerback Nick Harper, who won a Super Bowl ring with the Colts in February, leaped up and tipped away a pass intended for Harrison at the goal line. Then Vanden Bosch sacked Manning on third down, forcing the punt.

Those were from the postgame recaps. Now Addai and Sanders are out (I assume ) but Addai has been a non factor really and Rhodes being a bigger back might be able to do the same. Addai's pass catching was not utilized either vs tenny . Now 2 years ago Tenny won by 3 at home but again Manning well over 300 yds passing with little help from Addai 16c 56 yds and combined for 3 catches in those 2 games. Even looking at the drive charts last 2 years Tenny held the Colts tone 3 and out I believe . In the 20-17 win the only stops were really the INTs . They had 3 punts but twice were inisde the tenny 40 when punting just out of FG range . Plus the Colts had it 1st goal on the 1 and only got 3 pts to tie after blowing a 14-0 lead alreay . Which Bironas then hit from 60 yds to win.

So the Colts I think have played well but made a ton of costly mistakes but always jumped out 1st on Tenny . Its not like I can say the Colts cant duplicate what they did in previous years @ tenny because each game the Colts left alot of points ITB while Tenny offense might be easier to defend with the absence of VY and the running threat . Has Collins thrown it thatmuch better then VY ? he has secured the ball alot better .

Guess for it boils down to not thinking Tenny is any better then previous years . the defense might be a tad better but think the offense might be worse or easier to scheme against . Colts lose Addai but he has been a non factor which Dallas Clark much more important player in this matchup . Sanders is out but the fact Tenny is w/o Young might make it a tad easier to slow the run . Remember Indy hasnt stopped the run anyway in previous meetings that wasnt they key to any of the games .

Good post ...I think COlts OL issues if they have Ugoh will be largely canceled out ...:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

Im not sure how alive the Colts came on offense vs. Baltimore. Baltimore had 5 turnovers. They had a couple long td drives, but the others were on short fields.

4th Quarter really doesn't count cause the game was out of hand.

1st Qtr:
3 plays -8 yards

4 plays 79 yards (Long td pass to Harrison)

10 plays 61 yards (td)- long drive, but were given a rather short field to work with.
Excellent drive though.

4 plays- 9 yards- field goal

2nd Qtr:

4 plays- 14 yards
3 plays- 2 yards
5 plays- 52 yards- short field td. 38 yard run by rhodes
2 plays- -2 yards (kneel down)

3rd Qtr:

11 plays 80 yards( legit touchdown, long drive)
9 plays 15 yards


Good luck with your play Nut, I always enjoy your analysis. Disagree here.

Again good point . I guess I feel the game was over when they got 2 TDs on their 1st 3 drives . The hit a big pass the 1st time but it was also to guy who hadnt produced ..Thats was what I graded the Colts on offense really after that it didnt matter much ...

GL as well

 

[Inspekdah]

The Colts have the biggest edge in this game which is worth a TD at least- The underdog mentality advantage.

When the Colts players know they are Underdogs it is worth 7 points IMO-- Just like the Giants were underdogs yesterday teams take it personally--- Athletes when they are DOGS play better and looser and show to the world what's up--

THis is why the real line is COlts -3 not Titans -4-

Please give me Colts -3

 

[SportsNut]

Nut- I love ya bro, but I seriously need whatever you smoke. For someone who tosses around hypotheticals as liberally as you do why not throw out the fact that the Colts could EASILY and probably should be 1-5 heading into tonights game.

Schedules? Since when has Indy's schedule been the Bataan Death March? They've lost two home games and got beat handily by the Packers. The Titans-Jags game was not as close as the score indicated. If Collins started and played the whole game, the Titans win by 17-20 points. Don't read anything into the Baltimore game being close. Road game against a good team and those teams HATE each other. The Titans road will get tougher after tonight but 6-0 is 6-0 and if you want to rationalize how a team that is genuinely fortunate to be .500 is as good as a team that hasn't been defeated in six games and has the best point differential in the NFL, then go ahead.

I'm pretty sure when you're three games behind a team after six played and you're near the bottom in running and stopping the run that team is in no position to think they are better than their record indicates despite a solid track record in the recent past.

I know you don't buy the Titans. Even if you don't it's just insane to deny the obvious reality that they are currently a better team than the Colts.

The Colts have a chance tonight because it's a division game, they need it,they have Peyton Manning and the weaker team wins all the time in the NFL like the Browns did agains the Giants.

Just trying to look at everything MCG.

It's fair point about the Indy near losses where they were outplayed . My thing is first they were on the road and second like all great teams(though not great any longer) when given an inch they took a yard . So they were outplayed in both and deserved to lose BUT most importantly they won and more importantly is they WON and COVERED . Covering the point spread is of great importance because it tells you about the perception of a team versus its value . Now Indy played like crap on the road TWICE and still won SU and still covered vs solid teams as well . they also paid with those wins in some terms losing a close game vs Jax and dont forget Manning had 2 pick 6s @ GB giving the Pack 14 pts and taking away some from his own team .

The Jags are not very good and worse forget Collins vs Young they had 2 unhealthy RBs . Naturally the counter is well Jags beat Indy @ Indy which was suprising but Jax has always played Indy tough just as tenny has . Not sure Jax would have won if it was week 1 as the RBs where healthier .

As for rationalize being 6-0 come on bro. Seriously they toughest game they barely won and after that Houston and Minny not playing as good as they could are the next toughest games . Would tenny win @ Houston , @ Minny and @ GB ? Would they beat Chi at home ? As we said they beat Jags at home ....records are meaningless to determine a teams value . What would Indy do at Cincy or at KC. Compared to how would Tenny fare playing the Colts 3 road games . Again Tenny is unlike most teams so far as they dont self destruct and thats huge for a team with a good defense . They just wait for the other teams mistakes and react .

Is Indy better based on play through 6 games = NO. You cant compare though when the opponents are widely different (including venue) , expectations are different , health week to week is different . Just to many things are different to compare IMO . Past 6 games dont matter though its only about who plays better tonight and my decision is based only on the line .

Its not that I dont but the Titans in years past I have played them often . Good defense , winner as a QB and often dogged was a great equation . Now expectations are changing based on a BS 6-0 record IMO. Thats what I am not buying into Tenny being any better then they have been just others teams stepping back. Thats all . Not a tenny hater just want to see them do it over and over before I think they are undervalued .

The browns are not much weaker then NYG they just are not capable of the same things as NY on a good day . Which is the same thing here with tenny . Not saying Indy is significantly better but the Colts best day is still better then the Tenny's IMO .

Dont think I am hating on tenny I missed a few games of there already but until something happens to make me change my perception of them I cant. Rushing defense is the most overrated indictor of defenses IMO. Alot of teams allow a ton of yards like Cle but dont allow many pts .

BOL:cheers:I am just debating the game I dont think outside of grabbing the Vikings I had a big play on Titans game all year ..wont here either ...

Loved dungy 's Death by Inches comment cause it's exactly what I am talking about . KVB OUT for Tenny pretty big ..

 

[SportsNut]

Nut- I love ya bro, but I seriously need whatever you smoke. For someone who tosses around hypotheticals as liberally as you do why not throw out the fact that the Colts could EASILY and probably should be 1-5 heading into tonights game.

Schedules? Since when has Indy's schedule been the Bataan Death March? They've lost two home games and got beat handily by the Packers. The Titans-Jags game was not as close as the score indicated. If Collins started and played the whole game, the Titans win by 17-20 points. Don't read anything into the Baltimore game being close. Road game against a good team and those teams HATE each other. The Titans road will get tougher after tonight but 6-0 is 6-0 and if you want to rationalize how a team that is genuinely fortunate to be .500 is as good as a team that hasn't been defeated in six games and has the best point differential in the NFL, then go ahead.

I'm pretty sure when you're three games behind a team after six played and you're near the bottom in running and stopping the run that team is in no position to think they are better than their record indicates despite a solid track record in the recent past.

I know you don't buy the Titans. Even if you don't it's just insane to deny the obvious reality that they are currently a better team than the Colts.

The Colts have a chance tonight because it's a division game, they need it,they have Peyton Manning and the weaker team wins all the time in the NFL like the Browns did agains the Giants.

Just trying to look at everything MCG.

It's fair point about the Indy near losses where they were outplayed . My thing is first they were on the road and second like all great teams(though not great any longer) when given an inch they took a yard . So they were outplayed in both and deserved to lose BUT most importantly they won and more importantly is they WON and COVERED . Covering the point spread is of great importance because it tells you about the perception of a team versus its value . Now Indy played like crap on the road TWICE and still won SU and still covered vs solid teams as well . they also paid with those wins in some terms losing a close game vs Jax and dont forget Manning had 2 pick 6s @ GB giving the Pack 14 pts and taking away some from his own team .

The Jags are not very good and worse forget Collins vs Young they had 2 unhealthy RBs . Naturally the counter is well Jags beat Indy @ Indy which was suprising but Jax has always played Indy tough just as tenny has . Not sure Jax would have won if it was week 1 as the RBs where healthier .

As for rationalize being 6-0 come on bro. Seriously they toughest game they barely won and after that Houston and Minny not playing as good as they could are the next toughest games . Would tenny win @ Houston , @ Minny and @ GB ? Would they beat Chi at home ? As we said they beat Jags at home ....records are meaningless to determine a teams value . What would Indy do at Cincy or at KC. Compared to how would Tenny fare playing the Colts 3 road games . Again Tenny is unlike most teams so far as they dont self destruct and thats huge for a team with a good defense . They just wait for the other teams mistakes and react .

Is Indy better based on play through 6 games = NO. You cant compare though when the opponents are widely different (including venue) , expectations are different , health week to week is different . Just to many things are different to compare IMO . Past 6 games dont matter though its only about who plays better tonight and my decision is based only on the line .

Its not that I dont but the Titans in years past I have played them often . Good defense , winner as a QB and often dogged was a great equation . Now expectations are changing based on a BS 6-0 record IMO. Thats what I am not buying into Tenny being any better then they have been just others teams stepping back. Thats all . Not a tenny hater just want to see them do it over and over before I think they are undervalued .

The browns are not much weaker then NYG they just are not capable of the same things as NY on a good day . Which is the same thing here with tenny . Not saying Indy is significantly better but the Colts best day is still better then the Tenny's IMO .

Dont think I am hating on tenny I missed a few games of there already but until something happens to make me change my perception of them I cant. Rushing defense is the most overrated indictor of defenses IMO. Alot of teams allow a ton of yards like Cle but dont allow many pts .

BOL:cheers:I am just debating the game I dont think outside of grabbing the Vikings I had a big play on Titans game all year ..wont here either ...

Loved dungy 's Death by Inches comment cause it's exactly what I am talking about . KVB OUT for Tenny pretty big ..

 

[SportsNut]

Nut- I love ya bro, but I seriously need whatever you smoke. For someone who tosses around hypotheticals as liberally as you do why not throw out the fact that the Colts could EASILY and probably should be 1-5 heading into tonights game.

Schedules? Since when has Indy's schedule been the Bataan Death March? They've lost two home games and got beat handily by the Packers. The Titans-Jags game was not as close as the score indicated. If Collins started and played the whole game, the Titans win by 17-20 points. Don't read anything into the Baltimore game being close. Road game against a good team and those teams HATE each other. The Titans road will get tougher after tonight but 6-0 is 6-0 and if you want to rationalize how a team that is genuinely fortunate to be .500 is as good as a team that hasn't been defeated in six games and has the best point differential in the NFL, then go ahead.

I'm pretty sure when you're three games behind a team after six played and you're near the bottom in running and stopping the run that team is in no position to think they are better than their record indicates despite a solid track record in the recent past.

I know you don't buy the Titans. Even if you don't it's just insane to deny the obvious reality that they are currently a better team than the Colts.

The Colts have a chance tonight because it's a division game, they need it,they have Peyton Manning and the weaker team wins all the time in the NFL like the Browns did agains the Giants.

Just trying to look at everything MCG.

It's fair point about the Indy near losses where they were outplayed . My thing is first they were on the road and second like all great teams(though not great any longer) when given an inch they took a yard . So they were outplayed in both and deserved to lose BUT most importantly they won and more importantly is they WON and COVERED . Covering the point spread is of great importance because it tells you about the perception of a team versus its value . Now Indy played like crap on the road TWICE and still won SU and still covered vs solid teams as well . they also paid with those wins in some terms losing a close game vs Jax and dont forget Manning had 2 pick 6s @ GB giving the Pack 14 pts and taking away some from his own team .

The Jags are not very good and worse forget Collins vs Young they had 2 unhealthy RBs . Naturally the counter is well Jags beat Indy @ Indy which was suprising but Jax has always played Indy tough just as tenny has . Not sure Jax would have won if it was week 1 as the RBs where healthier .

As for rationalize being 6-0 come on bro. Seriously they toughest game they barely won and after that Houston and Minny not playing as good as they could are the next toughest games . Would tenny win @ Houston , @ Minny and @ GB ? Would they beat Chi at home ? As we said they beat Jags at home ....records are meaningless to determine a teams value . What would Indy do at Cincy or at KC. Compared to how would Tenny fare playing the Colts 3 road games . Again Tenny is unlike most teams so far as they dont self destruct and thats huge for a team with a good defense . They just wait for the other teams mistakes and react .

Is Indy better based on play through 6 games = NO. You cant compare though when the opponents are widely different (including venue) , expectations are different , health week to week is different . Just to many things are different to compare IMO . Past 6 games dont matter though its only about who plays better tonight and my decision is based only on the line .

Its not that I dont but the Titans in years past I have played them often . Good defense , winner as a QB and often dogged was a great equation . Now expectations are changing based on a BS 6-0 record IMO. Thats what I am not buying into Tenny being any better then they have been just others teams stepping back. Thats all . Not a tenny hater just want to see them do it over and over before I think they are undervalued .

The browns are not much weaker then NYG they just are not capable of the same things as NY on a good day . Which is the same thing here with tenny . Not saying Indy is significantly better but the Colts best day is still better then the Tenny's IMO .

Dont think I am hating on tenny I missed a few games of there already but until something happens to make me change my perception of them I cant. Rushing defense is the most overrated indictor of defenses IMO. Alot of teams allow a ton of yards like Cle but dont allow many pts .

BOL:cheers:I am just debating the game I dont think outside of grabbing the Vikings I had a big play on Titans game all year ..wont here either ...

Loved dungy 's Death by Inches comment cause it's exactly what I am talking about . KVB OUT for Tenny pretty big ..

 

[SportsNut]

GL fellas . Sorry for the trifecta but guess I hit submit as CTG was going down.....

 

[SportsNut]

Nice win for Tenny . Still cant help but me unimpressed by Tenny though . Colts gave that game away . How could Dungy go on 4th and 1 at midfield on the road ....

I cant believe that Indy self destructed . Honestly . More pissed they busted the under .

 

[Dollaz]

Good luck Nut. I've been burned going against Tenn a bunch over the past couple years. They just never look that impressive, but they don't play bad and don't beat themselves. Strong lines and the best coach in football pulls them through.

Colts ran much better than I thought they would and the Titans ran much worse than I thought. Luckily for me Tenn stepped it up. Really could have went either way. The difference is Manning isn't what he used to be and neither are the Colts. They've gotten a little too old and a little too injured.

 

[Aztec4Life]

I was impressed with Tenny, and Collins. He made plays when he needed to, even without much of a running game all night.

Definitely cannot say the same about Manning.

Until this Titan team actually loses a game, there's no way I'm betting against them. I'll make my money on other games.

SN - While I can understand your reasoning, it's lines of thinking similar to yours that will have this Tennessee team playing with a chip on their shoulder for the rest of the year.

IMO, it's hard to ignore the fact that they're 7-0 now, regardless of who they've played.

:shake:

 

[Pirate88]

a couple of tipped INT against Colts, a couple of catches by Colts, 4th down conversions for conservative coach may have altered the outcome but we move on, congrats to Titan winners

 

[SportsNut]

Good luck Nut. I've been burned going against Tenn a bunch over the past couple years. They just never look that impressive, but they don't play bad and don't beat themselves. Strong lines and the best coach in football pulls them through.

Colts ran much better than I thought they would and the Titans ran much worse than I thought. Luckily for me Tenn stepped it up. Really could have went either way. The difference is Manning isn't what he used to be and neither are the Colts. They've gotten a little too old and a little too injured.

Thanks bro. I lost like $30 /$40 on the game more pissed because of all nites I had to go play hoops at 10 which is like a 1st in along time so couldnt really wait to look at the halftime lines / action. Thought about taking Tenny 2nd H based on the fact Indy played pretty well and only scored on a short field leading by 1 point. Seeing some books use -1-110 made me pass even stated in that in the ingame . If they would have used -1-130 or -140 probably would have played for a middle . Looking back it seems that alot of people took the Colts +3 2nd H which is something I didint expect . Had I middled the total and Colts plays I would have probably finished up +100 which is great for a game that was marginable . Worse is I played the 1st H Indy and total less then the game totals . So split but less a tad , then lost Colts +10 and und 47.5 teased but hit 2 Dallas Clark Props over 4 rec and -9,5 yds vs Scaife .

I absolutely agree on Tenny . Sometimes MCG might think I am pissing on them but they are what they are . Which I feel like I know exactly what that is . However its backfired for me greatly in 2008 with them because I am probably to concerned with the undefeated record and ATS mark I believe . Also the fact the ATS winner on MNF tends to not need the point spread usually winning SU was again to obvious to think that this would be decided inside 4 points.

I dont think I guessed anything wrong in that game sadly . Which I am a firm believer in what is meant to be will be. Which in terms of sports basically means the game will unfold in a manner to get the result that is supposed to occur . So if Tenny is meant to win then all the key plays will go their way . Which means I can let go pretty easy of 95% of my losses and bad decisions . I am just speechless on the fact that the turning point was Tony Dungy deciding to go for 4th and 1 at the 49 yd line . Worse was the play call as it looked and I wasnt home just saw the replay that it was really about 1/2 yard short . So you give RHodes the ball at essentialy your 45 and ask him to get to midfield ? So that sequence just baffles me . Tony Dungy one of the most conservative coaches ever goes on 4th down at midfield , on the road vs one on the top 4 defenses in the NFL?? Just what was he thinking ? I am sure it was something like I was concerned about my defense stopping them. Okay , well a good punt pins them inside their own 10 and asks alot of the Tenny offense or your fail and give them the ball on your side of the field possible 10yds away froma FG attempt. Bironas hit a 60 yder vs them 2 seasons ago to win it and not sure if he attempts a 55 yder but what was Dungy thinking ?? On top of the poor risky decision did he not notice every handoff to Rhodes basically had him shaky off a defender and then gaining yards . So wasnt it likely that a Titan would have been in position to make a play on him since it was like that all game ? Sometimes they did and others he made a nifty move to get some yards , is that what you want to rely on in that situation? I would have been less suprised if they just gave to Manning and tried to push forward considering how well the OL played . WOrse is it looked like the same play that they got snuffed shortly before halftime . Remember someone complaining about the playcall in the game on 2nd and 10 which I defended . Saying good spot to try and catch them off guard after some completions. Definetly should have been a light bulb moment for the Colts that they were NOT going to catch Tenny off guard trying to run it up the gut . Most of Rhodes success was getting to the edges.

As I have said Tenny's greatest asset is they dont beat themselves . They dont commit many turnovers , they are fortunate to have found Rob Bironas who is probably a top 10 kicker in the NFL , and they have a very sound defense . So nothing suprises me on the Tenny side of the game as it went pretty much as I expected .

I even felt the OL issues would got sorted out last nite and they did , Rhodes ran probably better then Addai ever has vs that defense and Manning did what was expected . Although he did miss 2 TD throws . The opening drive Manning should have hit Reggie Wayne for TD pass . That was an easy throw for him and he blew it . To which Steve Young commented after the game I dont what to say other then Peyton Manning is hurt and someone said no he is not (maybe keyshawn) . The other I believe was broken up by Harper but they got it anyway I believe when Clark caught his 2nd .

It's also sad how much Vinateri has fallen in the past 2 seasons since coming to Indy . As I said he was a minor concern for me . Even after the Colts D held them to the FG after the 1st TOD it was only 17-14 . Indy drove it to the Tenny 34 and had 3rd & 2 but cant even elect to kick a 51 yd FG in this day and age when you have tons of guys hitting 54+ yders . Also what happened to reggie Wayne or Dallas Clark in those big spots ? On 4th and 2 you look for Harrison on the sideline ? This is not 2003 and wasnt Harper an ex-Colt covering him ? Another terrible play call that goes unnoticed .

It's little things like that why I cant feel that Tenny is a great team because every under the radar thing goes their way . WHich only means that its likely 2008 is the year of the Titans which is fine with me . Its just a team I cant make money on.

Indy stopped the Tenny run , they didnt allow many big pass plays although were to soft in coverage in the 2nd H and held the Titans to less then 290 yards with a good deal of it coming after a huge momentum shift after the 1st TOD . Actually Indy ran the ball better and passing was probably about equal.

The Titans were what I thought they were but guess I have to realize that the Bears did make the SB with a team very similiar . I think the Bears defense was better would give the edge to the Tenny offense . Kerry Collins although I have said he is a game manager is much ore capable then previous guys who held that label on good defensive teams . I knew that but also guess because he doesnt have the same arm I soured on him a bit but Tenny is just so fundamnetally sound taking what the defense gives them.

At the end of the day Indy just pissed that game away IMO something that tends to not happen in close games especially on the offensive side of it . I agree on some levels the Colts are not what they used to be but really we all know Harrison has regressed but Gonzalez and Dallas Clark have progressed to really keep that same talent level IMO. The big issue really is Peyton Manning's play which I thought would improve after the GB game labeling it sort of flukish and the fact Indy is saddled with a quickly regressing FG kicker in Vinateri. I really feel that both teams played liked I expected and showed what they are . Indy 's OL is fine , the defense is okay but the stud Qb is a ?? and the FG kicker is a ?? Which is pretty huge . The more I look at it I think Steve Young is correct in saying something is wrong with Peyton Manning .

Going in I would say Indy was -1 on a neutral field and would flip that to Tenny being -1 mostly because they just continue their sound fundamental approach forcing teams to beat them . Which still begs the question if the Colts are down so much and Tenny needs to fight so hard to win at home vs them what about on the road ? Which gets me to square 1 again but as you said tenny is just a winner and I agree .....:shake:

 

[SportsNut]

I was impressed with Tenny, and Collins. He made plays when he needed to, even without much of a running game all night.

Definitely cannot say the same about Manning.

Until this Titan team actually loses a game, there's no way I'm betting against them. I'll make my money on other games.

SN - While I can understand your reasoning, it's lines of thinking similar to yours that will have this Tennessee team playing with a chip on their shoulder for the rest of the year.

IMO, it's hard to ignore the fact that they're 7-0 now, regardless of who they've played.

:shake:

I dont think I questioned Tenny being a good team just the best in the NFL. Still think they are just in a perfect spot in 2008 because of their fundamental approach. The NFL is way down in 2008 as I have said again and again . All the elite teams have fallen back to just regular good teams and really none have stepped forward . I still dont know if Tenny is any better then last year . Its not like I thought NE was any good last year I didnt nothing but fade them all 2nd H . So its not a Tenny thing as much as perception thing . Once they get overvalued I will do well fading them but each week I piss away few bucks thinking that week has arrived . I just expected a more sound approach from what I would call the most conservative HC in football . Thats a punt situation 99.9 % of the time and he cant say his defense was tired they had 1 drive in the 2nd H to that point . Tennys defense was sucking wind in the 1st H. Outside of a couple Manning tosses Indy did play near peak performance but still not perfect and it was tie game for 3 quarters while Tenny did exactly what I expected them to do on offense and defense for those 3Qs....

:shake:Like Pirate said its over and time to move on but my commenting is still for me to see the big picture moving forward for both teams . It's not soley about yesterday.