BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Over 204.5
Rather than my normal array of stats posting, for this game I'm just going to highlight some points I think are relevant.
First off, if PHX had more "normal" total results recently, its pretty plain this line would be higher. But the fact they're 14-3 to Under over their last 17 games, meeting up with a team that they've already played out a 192 point Under result with this season, & is an opponent that has the most Under biased record in the NBA (25-12), goes towards explaining this opener. So what, if any, advantage is there in taking Over here?
These 2 teams had played out 5 straight Overs (221 & 241 totals in PHX) prior to their 1st meeting this season. Headed into that game...
Phoenix
- was playing a 4th in 5 nights, all of which had been road games.
- had totaled 1158 points over their previous 5 games (O/U 4-1), thats an average of 231.6 pts/game.
....so PHX not only brought into that contest a heavy schedule load, but also a heavy performance load from recent games. Heading into this game
- they're playing their 4th game in 7 days, all of which have been home games
- they've have totaled 1033 points over their previous 5 games (O/U 1-4), an average of only 206.6 pts/game.
...so their schedule and performance loads are in direct contrast to that first meeting.
Orlando
- had just started to get used to life without Turkoglu after going 14-5 SU in their previous 19 games. So they were in a let down spot on top of losing an important starter. Phoenix caught them during a stretch where they went 2-7 SU when they also lost Nelson.
In other words, Orlando just starting to hit a wall combined with Phoenix coming off a heavy schedule & peformance load made for the 1st under between these 2 teams in their last 6 meetings.
While a natural concern is obviously ORL's heavily biased Under record meeting PHX in such Under form themselves, looking at the Magic's efforts this season against teams which are fairly similar in style to PHX (the group of teams I dont record results for in the 230/100 trend thread), GDS, DEN, MIL, WAS & MEM* in games Turkoglu has played in, they're 2-0 to Over at an average of 208.0 points.
*They did play MEM, but before the style change that team has endured.
As far as PHX's under results go, they themselves - outside of vs. that same list of teams (since ORL doesnt compare) - have averaged 112.8 points @home since Dec. 1st. So the issue hasnt been their scoring, the issue has been their opponents simply not living with them, and failing to provide their share of the bargin.
With Turkoglu present (ORL's games average 10.4 points more this season w/him playing 11+ mins), and my belief the Magic will not fail to put up a decent fight here, I see no reason why these teams wont return to the normal course of events that arise when they play each other, namely an Over result.
Rather than my normal array of stats posting, for this game I'm just going to highlight some points I think are relevant.
First off, if PHX had more "normal" total results recently, its pretty plain this line would be higher. But the fact they're 14-3 to Under over their last 17 games, meeting up with a team that they've already played out a 192 point Under result with this season, & is an opponent that has the most Under biased record in the NBA (25-12), goes towards explaining this opener. So what, if any, advantage is there in taking Over here?
These 2 teams had played out 5 straight Overs (221 & 241 totals in PHX) prior to their 1st meeting this season. Headed into that game...
Phoenix
- was playing a 4th in 5 nights, all of which had been road games.
- had totaled 1158 points over their previous 5 games (O/U 4-1), thats an average of 231.6 pts/game.
....so PHX not only brought into that contest a heavy schedule load, but also a heavy performance load from recent games. Heading into this game
- they're playing their 4th game in 7 days, all of which have been home games
- they've have totaled 1033 points over their previous 5 games (O/U 1-4), an average of only 206.6 pts/game.
...so their schedule and performance loads are in direct contrast to that first meeting.
Orlando
- had just started to get used to life without Turkoglu after going 14-5 SU in their previous 19 games. So they were in a let down spot on top of losing an important starter. Phoenix caught them during a stretch where they went 2-7 SU when they also lost Nelson.
In other words, Orlando just starting to hit a wall combined with Phoenix coming off a heavy schedule & peformance load made for the 1st under between these 2 teams in their last 6 meetings.
While a natural concern is obviously ORL's heavily biased Under record meeting PHX in such Under form themselves, looking at the Magic's efforts this season against teams which are fairly similar in style to PHX (the group of teams I dont record results for in the 230/100 trend thread), GDS, DEN, MIL, WAS & MEM* in games Turkoglu has played in, they're 2-0 to Over at an average of 208.0 points.
*They did play MEM, but before the style change that team has endured.
As far as PHX's under results go, they themselves - outside of vs. that same list of teams (since ORL doesnt compare) - have averaged 112.8 points @home since Dec. 1st. So the issue hasnt been their scoring, the issue has been their opponents simply not living with them, and failing to provide their share of the bargin.
With Turkoglu present (ORL's games average 10.4 points more this season w/him playing 11+ mins), and my belief the Magic will not fail to put up a decent fight here, I see no reason why these teams wont return to the normal course of events that arise when they play each other, namely an Over result.
Last edited:
