GL tonight Killa. I'm leaning on the over as well at this point. Sitting with B.A.R. at the moment waiting for it to bottom. Good article (from a shitty website) as to why the under looks like the play, but I don't see any value in the under at 224. Probably wouldn't have been a play if it stuck around 228.
Shooting blanks? Fast-paced Suns
and Warriors hook up by the Bay
Wed, Mar 28, 2007
By Tim Roberts
The Phoenix Suns are widely held to have the NBA’s most dynamic offense.
The Golden State Warriors have done their best to mimic the Suns’ up-tempo pace.
The teams have already met three times this year, averaging 220.7 points per game. All points were scored in regulation time and two games played over the total in spite of oddsmakers’ high expectations (the average total was 225.3 points).
But bettors shouldn’t jump blindly on the over when the
Suns travel to Oakland for the back end of tonight's TNT’s doubleheader. Some things to consider before playing the Suns–Warriors total, which opened at 227 ½ points:
Cruise control
The Suns have all but clinched second place in the Western Conference and local newspapers are already weighing the pros and cons of potential playoff opponents.
They can get up for big games, as memorably displayed in Dallas on March 14, but Phoenix’s .500 record since that big win suggests they’re having trouble getting up for lesser opponents.
“We’re not tired, we’re just out of sync,” D’Antoni told the
East Valley Tribune after Monday’s unsatisfying win over Memphis.
“We have to get back in sync and get our aura up. I don’t know what it is, but everyone seems down. We’re flat, and the whole building is flat and we’re not doing anything to change it.”
Bursting of the playoff bubble
The Warriors were the hottest team in the West for a while, making a solid run for the conference’s eighth and final playoff spot.
They’ve dropped three of their last four, however, with the last two being particularly crushing. Golden State let the Los Angeles Lakers bully them in a tough loss on Sunday, one night before the San Antonio Spurs exposed the Warriors in every way possible.
They looked nothing like a playoff team in the 37-point loss to the Spurs and with the Los Angeles Clippers pulling away in the playoff hunt, the Warriors are down in the dumps again.
"Sometimes your body doesn't do what your mind wants it to do," Al Harrington told the
San Francisco Chronicle after shooting 0-for-5 from the floor.
"I know everybody wanted to pick it up and play hard and play better, but overall, from a team standpoint, we just couldn't get there."
Matrix unloaded
Shawn Marion, one of the NBA’s premier forwards when healthy, hasn’t been himself lately.
“Shawn is like the rest of the team right now. He’s out of his groove,” D’Antoni told the
Tribune. “He struggled since he was hurt, and it’s taking a while.”
Marion is only averaging 11.9 points per game in March and hasn’t topped 20 points since he injured his hand in late February. That’s 11 straight games scoring below his season average.
Less running and less gunning
The Suns and Warriors combined to take 185 shots in their Nov. 20 game, 189 on Dec. 15, and 189 again on Jan. 7. That’s an average of 187.7 shots from the floor, or 93.8 shots for each team.
Phoenix is only averaging 84.6 shots from the floor over its last 10 games and that includes three overtime periods.
Golden State is averaging only 85.1 shots over its last 10.
Those averages add up to only 169.7 shots, almost 20 below the teams’ average shot attempts when they met earlier this season.
On the other hand...
Both teams have played under the total six times in each of their last 10 games, but Golden State has had three consecutive overs.
The Warriors’ defense has been the primary cause, allowing 123.0 points per game over their last three outings. That’s a dangerous number with Steve Nash & Co. coming to Oakland.
So if you think the teams will act as a remedy for each other’s respective offensive woes and you’re banking on Marion to score 30 points on fast-break opportunities alone, then by all means play the over.
Sportsbooks, however, have pegged tonight’s total sky-high and there may be more compelling reasons to eye the under, in spite of both teams’ reputations
so I request for forgiveness, Killa 
good luck today
. No posts from them all summer either. :an_roll_laugh:
