Phoenix at Washington Total for Friday

[Marlo]

Phoenix @ Washington total for Friday opened at 224.

In a perfect world this would have been in the 215-220 range and we would all pound it like paris hilton. The total is a tricky number, but the pointspread of 6.5 is perfect. I generally don't like to play high totals with small ATS ranges. After doing some searching, and analyzing the lines. This is the only game besides GSW (which is off the board) that I like.

Here is some info on both of these teams when it pertains to the total.

<st1:city><st1>Phoenix</st1></st1:city> @ <st1:state><st1>Washington</st1></st1:state>
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Both teams of one days rest, <st1:city><st1>Phoenix</st1></st1:city> playing there 4^th game in 6 nights.
On Deck for <st1:city><st1>Phoenix</st1> </st1:city>@ <st1:state><st1>Minnesota</st1> </st1:state>the next night
One Deck for <st1:state><st1>Washington</st1></st1:state> a day off before taking on the Nets at home.
<o></o>
No significant look ahead factor.
<o></o>
<st1:city><st1>Phoenix </st1></st1:city>has been crushing there totals in the last 3 games.
<o></o>
In the last 10 games for <st1:state><st1>Washington</st1></st1:state> the total has exceeded the over in 9 of them.
<o></o>
Pho as a road favorite in the last 2 years, with a total of 220 or more has gone over 4-2. The two times it didn’t go over were when the total was 231 and they scored 230, and when the total was 223 and they scored 221.
<o></o>
Pho as a road favorite this year the total has gone over 4-1. Wash as a home dog has gone over the total 1-1 this year. The only time it has gone under was vs <st1:city><st1>Denver</st1> </st1:city>where they put up 210, and the line was 210.5
<o></o>
<o>
Thoughts?

</o>

 

[Mo]

Phoenix put up 136 last game, which is stratospheric by NBA standards. Im of the opinion if a team shoots the lights out 1 nite the next night they will come back down to earth. Yes Phoenix have a days rest but 224 is ALOT of points there is no room for error. Just think about the Patriots 1 week they were the largest faves in history @ -25 the won by 3. The next week they were the largest road fave by 19 they won by 3. Just some food for thought. Another thing I would DEFINATELY like the OVER if Arenas was playing

 

[Horus]

i like how u think bukii books threw put 224 expecting it to get pounded because of what phx has been doing. it can go either way ill pass

 

[AtlHawks]

i like how u think bukii books threw put 224 expecting it to get pounded because of what phx has been doing. it can go either way ill pass

every game can go either way, that is why they call it gambling.

Above looks like a bunch of good reasons to take the overs...
Books set it high trying to scare some people off of it.

The thing about Phoenix is that they don't have to shoot an exceptional percentage to put up a lot of points. Their style increases the number of possessions by a ton. Last I checked WAS is not afraid to run.

I will be playing overs...espescially if the "pub" is weary of it.
:thumbsup:

 

[JPicks]

First off I like your style Marlo. By style I mean putting thought into something and posting it. I agree with your thoughts on this game.

136 is a high number for any team to put up, but as stratospheric as it is it's not the same with the suns. They've been averaging 114.5 over their last 10. If they simply get to their average in this game it'll have a decent shot at the over.

When looking at Washington's L10 they've been playing some low scoring games last 4. The only two that actually matter to me are GSW and MEM. They gave up 124 and 123 to those teams. Beyond that they played a bunch of inept offensive teams or great defensive teams. Their over preference still show with the fact that 8 of 10 have gone over.

I think they get to the mid 230's myself.

 

[Horus]

i like how u think and ur style

 

[B.A.R.]

Great to have you aboard Marlo...love your discussion on games...

I was making a play if it was in range you thought..no thanks at that number

 

[redbearde]

Phoenix @ Washington total for Friday opened at 224.

In a perfect world this would have been in the 215-220 range and we would all pound it like paris hilton.

Thoughts?

I wouldn't pound Paris Hilton with anything but a sledge hammer.

 

[RambleOn]

I've got the Over here for a 3*. :shake:

 

[BetCrimes1984]

PHX's last game totaled 259.

Thru the last 2 seasons they're 6-3 to Under at an average of 203.6 pts following a game of theirs that totaled 250+ points. Only once has one of their subsequent games totaled more than 213 points (227).

 

[Satyr]

Very good thread. Welcome aboard Marlo.

I agree with bukii in this one, and BC points out a very important stat/trend.


There really is a very little room for error in this one. I'm aware sometimes the books can't have the number high enough (or low enough, depending on the case) but I think this one should land somewhere around the number, which makes me lose my interest.

 

[divol]

I have simple rule, that of course sometimes turns out to be correct and sometimes not. I don't go Over in Totals above 220 and don't go Under in games below 180. In such totals, one quarter or even 6 - 8 minutes that result in too fast/ too slow scoring pace can kill the bet, because such totals from the beginning suggest that the teams will play very specific style of play the whole match.
Still thinking of taking it as a teaser, but I think I will pass on that all together.
Best of luck to those who take it, both teams are capable of going Over here!

 

[Mo]

Like I said earlier. Since Phoenix threw up 136 I dont think they will come out again and throw up a high# for Phoenix to cover and win ur looking at 119-110. It definately an aggressive wager if you take the over, but if you have 1 qtr where they have a 5-7 mins slow down and you're over is toast.. I have been lookin at totals that take a big move one way or the other durin the day, which would suggest public money. Im thinkin about goin the other way for but as we all know the public is 500 at best. I been trackin totals in college this year and almost everytime there is a big line movement in either direction it has usually hit. But then again the first 2 weeks of CBB saw some HUGE swings. So over the course of a full season you would have to extrapolate out the extremes. All in all it Phoenix tonite would be an under play for me or not bet at all. GOOD LUCK THO. You seem to have your shit together when it comes to analyzing games.

 

[Mo]

damn!!! Me Has Sum Bad Grammar