Phoenix +7 over Denver

Sammy Meatballs

Sammy Meatballs

Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
I like this spot for Phoenix, this line seems a bit high to me.

The reason I am taking this game is for two reasons.

Denver plays no Defense and when you are playing a good offensive team it will be hard to cover -7.

Also it seems with Denver favored by -7 they are very capable of losing this game straight up.

Phoenix may not be able to match up with Detroit and Spurs, but I think they can handle the teams like Portland, Denver.

I am using the old strategy, do not lay points with a bad defense. Bottom line you cannot cover if you cannot stop the other team. Now it is possible that they just outscore us, but I will take that chance.


In Phoenix I think if they can get some productivity out of the FAT GUY, even on D to guard the hoop, they will be fine.
Don't forget they have the best Forward in the league AMARE, a decent guard in NASH, and some other guys who can get hot hopefully.

This line should be -4 for Den, I have no idea why it is -7.

Biting on Phoenix +7

I also like the fact that I am taking a team in Phoenix that will not be intimidated by Denver tonight, as I am sure they feel they are better than Denver. THat is huge when you are getting +7, basically with the team that feels they are better.

Plus Denver is struggling bigtime except for a blowout at Seattle, and now laying -7???
 
amare is beat. i wouldnt touch the suns. denver has to play playoff basketball starting tonight on ESPN with their brutal upcoming schedule.
 
Thanks guy for the good points, AMare is playing and I know they are playing 7, but the line is reflecting that, it opened at -3.5, and now it is -7. Vegas knows what they are doing and they set the line at -3.5 and now it is -7 which gives us 3.5 points of value on the Suns I think.
 
b2b in denver with 7 spells trouble. especially with ai and melo most likely attacking the rim tonight everytime. denver may not have a d but they have all the motivation here to play some tonight.

good health Sammy.
 
nice points sammy. especially: "do not lay points with a bad defense". those are sage words in the nba. my 2 cents are this: the suns will struggle with good PASSING and perimeter shooting teams due to their lack of perimeter defense and slow defensive rotation.

I think that they actually match up well against "athletic"/penetrate to the rack type such as portland and for the most part denver. Denver does have a few shooters (smith, atkins, kleisa) but atkins i think is still out and kleisa day-to-day with an ankle.

The nugs are at home which may be important as this game will come down to tempo, where phoenix wants this to be slower than denver for the most part.
 
You are on the right side. Was debating posting this myself. There is a fundamental fact no one is mentioning. The teams that the Suns have real problems with all have strong point guards. Utah, Spurs, Detroit and New Orleans all dominate because Nash becomes useless. Even the Sixers have a quality point guard. Nash will have no trouble playing effectively today and I see no real difference between this and the Golden State game they lost 120-118. GL
 
tuck321 said:
You are on the right side. Was debating posting this myself. There is a fundamental fact no one is mentioning. The teams that the Suns have real problems with all have strong point guards. Utah, Spurs, Detroit and New Orleans all dominate because Nash becomes useless. Even the Sixers have a quality point guard. Nash will have no trouble playing effectively today and I see no real difference between this and the Golden State game they lost 120-118. GL
Click to expand...

This is why Im taking the points, this exact point right here!
 
Exactly the Suns are not the old Suns who try and outscore u like G state is doing. They realized that that does not win in the playoffs. THat is why they got the Fat Man to win the half court games.

I said it before Nash is great, but not that athletic anymore, he is starting to slow down with his back injuries and his age, I think he is 34. he cannot cover Parker, Paul, BILLUPS is too strong and will not let him drive by him.

AI presents an easy challenge for Nash, he is smaller than him, and is not physical.

KLEIZA may not play tonight and that is the 3rd leading scorer.

Teams like Phoenix or any teams in professional sports, you have to realize one thing. Phoenix was stinking the joint up and people got sour on them when they were favorites. They were favored by -2.5 over Detroit, I think -3 over Lakers, and so on. So they lost all those games and people got sour on them. What we created is good value tonight at +7. I know they do not have a deep bench, but Vegas factored that in at -3.5, and now -7 is a good line. If this game was played when the Fat Man was traded to Phoenix, I think the line would be Den -2 in the same situation. I think we have an extra 5 points due to the poor Suns play of late. Suns did lose to the leagues best teams also in the Lakers and Pistons, lost to 6'ers who are not the best but are playing hot ball of late.
This is the key, Phoenix was favored over Pistons and the Lakers at home granted but none the less favored. Now they are playing a team worse than Pistons and the Lakers and are getting +7? Granted it is a back to back, but this is how fragile lines are created based on recent play. The funniest thing is that Denver is struggling big time also. They lost 4 out of their last 6, and beat the Clips by 6 at home? and Seattle.
Denver is favored for one reason, their good home record, and the big names of AI and Carmello.

This game is really pitting 2 struggling teams vs each other. I think with +7 you are getting excellent value in which the SUns can easily win this game.


Also this game should not be as high scoring as Phoenix is trying to play slower ball.

Phoenix loses to any fundamentally strong team, plain and simple. They cannot beat the Spurs and the Pistons who are good teams. However except for this year they beat the Lakers handily with KOBE, as someone said they can handle the athletes, they cannot handle the solid tough teams.

I think this is a perfect game for them to knock Denver out. I also think that Denver is the type of team that can easily get frustrated and start fighting with each other. they have athletes, but no team system.
 
Big difference is Suns B2B . Look at what happened at New Orleans .


Getting Inside

Back-to-back games have followed a familiar pattern for the Suns this season: They have no trouble with the first game but that second night has been a real grind.


After beating the Blazers Tuesday the Suns are 12-1 on the front end, but they are just 5-6 coming into tonight’s game with the Nuggets in Denver. But they have won 10 of the last 12 meetings against Denver and 30 of the last 41

If you are paying close attention I wouldnt be satisifed with PHO offense. They finished 7-29 in the 2nd H yesterday. They really have only scored in 3 of the games LAL , Memphis and Philly..so ther inconsistency on offense concerns me. To often NAsh and Hill dont play wel in backends. To often Diaw disappears and Barbosa didnt play well yesterday. Shaq's offensive contributions have been few and far bewteen (5 FG attempts yesterday).....

Now they are going to have to outrun and outscore Denver ??

Think its a terrible spot and the points look attractive but I dont give PHO a great chance of winning here so the points drop in value.....
 
suns 2Hs have sucked recently in general...

they've got what...7 guys they play, plus occasional cameos by DJ Strawberry, Linton Johnson, and now Giricek. they all played well into 30 minutes last night, and now they're in the thin air...

If they want to beat Denver, they'll have to sit Shaq and try to run, and I don't think they have the bodies to do it.

and you know how the And1 Mixtape tour out of Denver rolls....they'll try to score as much as they can all night to put a beatdown on the Suns. Suns only had 14 TOs last night. I expect that to be much closer to 20, if not more...

I really think this one'll be ugly.
 
Phoenix has had 2 days off before playing yesterday, so they should be fine tonight for this game.

I checked into Phoenix's back to back, and I think they struggle vs real physical teams on the back ends of games. I dont think Phoenix struggles with run and gun teams.

Also found out another interesting trend with Phoenix.

Phoenix losses in high scoring games.

119- 114 to Philly 5 points
120- 103 to Hornet 17 points
130-124 to lakers 6 points
120-118 to G state 2 points
132-130 to Hornets 2 points
117-107 to Wolves 10 points
118-113 to Hornets 5 points
122-115 to Lakers 7 points
117-113 to Miami 4 points

This is interesting that people feel Phoenix cannot play the run and gun game. These scores indicate that they can basically score possession to possession with teams in higher scoring games. They have lost a few games by more than 7, but they show the ability to cover +7 in higher scoring games, as is indicated by their scores.

Denver has not stopped teams of late allowing 135 to Bulls, 115 to Milly, 103 to Houston, 98 to pistons, and 104 to the Clippers, who recently scored 73 80 80 76 in their last 4 games. Clippers scoring 104 when they can barely get 75 against 4 other teams shows us this team does not play D, and it will not change in one night. Phoenix can run with anyone as is shown by the scores above.

I know Redbearde you think this will be ugly but I don' think Denver has the ability to make it ugly. THey cannot stop anyone and their O is dependent on AI and MELO scoring, if either one of these guys is cold it is over they lose straight up.

Another reason I think Suns are a good bet, is the Intelligence factor.
AI and Melo are not very intelligent, and it shows as they try to win on athleticism alone. I hate betting on teams with players that are not very smart. I have seen too many times people load up on Denver like last week vs Detroit, but they will never beat a smarter team, its plain and simple even in football, you need the smart teams, KARL is on the hot seat and it is not his fault, you cannot motivate Gangstas on your team, I never like to bet teams with gangsta type players beccause you never know where their head is going to be. At least with Duncan and the Veteran pistons you know they will be ready to play day in day out, and will not be partying all night in strip clubs.
If you want to bet a high scoring team, the team is G state, they have scored over 100 in 23 straight games, and they at least have 4 gangstas that can score, Davis, Ellis, Jackson, Harrington, with production from Pietrius. THey are a well balanced gangsta team that gets production.



Intelligence alone I think gives suns a 3 point edge tonight.

I love that priceless look on KARL's face when he just sits on the sidelines and is thinking man these guys are stupid, they never listen.

Also when a team needs a must win game, when is the last time they just came out and blew the team out?? It never comes easy, and the trend is your friend, so Denver is struggling of late, and Suns won yesterday and will play well tonight.
 
Last edited:
They crushed in them Denver last meeting and also looked at hwat PHO did when playing B2B games with both on the road...in the2nd game ...

11/7 lost @ Atlanta by 9 laying 5.5

11/10 won @ORL by 9 laying 1.5 (both teams played 4th in 5)

12/5 won @ Tor by 13 laying 7.5

12/8 lost @ Minny by 7 laying 10 (4th in 5 all away)

1 /23 lost @ Minny by10 laying 8

2/27 lost by 17 @NO catching 3.5

BOL
 
This is also a very different team now for Phoenix than they were 10 games ago.

Nash & Co will turn the ball over a lot. Portland doesn't capitalize on that like everyone else does. Denver does.

I could very well be wrong. You can get damn near 3:1 on the Suns SU. If you like it, go get it...that's pretty good value...

:shake:
 
Iverson is hot of late scoring about 30 points a game in Denvers last 7 games.

THe interesting thing is they only won one of the 7 games by more than 6 points vs Seattle.

I will give AI his 30 to 35 tonight. Even with AI scoring at that ridiculous high rate Denver is still not winning games yet alone covering.

I am very interested in the +7, I think these points could come in handy as well tonight.
 
getting ready for playoffs. suns "adjusting" to shaq still or more like shaq needs to prove how hes useful. its because of this b2b suns have value with the +7. melo ai big names , but the suns nash and amare are well enough to present a battle here tonight.. seven is just way too much . assume the suns jumpers go down today easy ass cover. anytime one bets on a team that plays no D its a risk, but today denver is a team with absolute no d.
just my thoughts on suns +7


lets get this sammy!
 
SportsNut said:
They crushed in them Denver last meeting and also looked at hwat PHO did when playing B2B games with both on the road...in the2nd game ...

11/7 lost @ Atlanta by 9 laying 5.5

11/10 won @ORL by 9 laying 1.5 (both teams played 4th in 5)

12/5 won @ Tor by 13 laying 7.5

12/8 lost @ Minny by 7 laying 10 (4th in 5 all away)

1 /23 lost @ Minny by10 laying 8

2/27 lost by 17 @NO catching 3.5

BOL
Click to expand...


This situation played out well today in Denver. I think it basically pops up again on Thursday with Cle @ Chicago.

Add in that Chi just lost a "coin flip" late in Cle on Sunday , the fact LeBron playedd 44 minutes and took the Cavs on his back and the home team dominance. Still no Z and Tyrus Thomas is suspended. With :

Clev being 1-4 in the backend when playing B2Bs both on the road.

11/7 @Utah lost by 2 +9
11/12 @ Den lost by 22 +8
1/31 @ Seattle lost w/o LeBron +2.5
2/8 won by 5 @ ATL +3.5
2/27 @ Bos lost by 5 +9 (backdoor)

Not quite as clear but I think everything points to Chi winning here and that should help them cover 3 or 4 points...somewhat different situation cause they played some good teams catching big numbers...:shake:
 
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