Yankees Minor League Pitcher on Fade List in Philadelphia
The Phillies begin a three-game home series with the Yankees on Monday at 7:05 ET. They’ll look to win their third straight series opener behind a propitious pitching match-up
New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies
MLB Pick: 1H Phillies
It’s tempting to compare team records and simply bet on the „better“ team. But the season is so long, consisting of so many games in a week, and filled with innumerable vicissitudes over time, that season stats lose all meaning when they’re not consistent with the recent form of a given team or player. The worst thing about betting on big names is the chalk. The question therefore becomes, is there any value in such a risky investment?
Vince Velasquez (5-7, 4.82 ERA) is having a stronger season than it appears on the surface. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) is 3.78, down 1.74 from last season. He’s striking out over two batters more per nine innings, walking a batter less, and allowing fewer homers. The key for him has been to vary his pitch usage in order to become less predictable. He’s reduced his fastball usage by 11 percent and throws his sinker, curveball, and slider more often. Despite his increased slider usage, opponents’ BA against it is down from .185 last season to .149. He reliably induces ground balls with it. Its .085 opposing ISO shows that he doesn’t make many mistakes with its location, which batters would exploit with extra-base hits. He relies on it especially against right-handed batters, so Yankees slugger Giancarlo Stanton is in trouble. He's 5-for-44 against the slider from righties this season.
Velasquez tends to be worse at home, where he’s surrendered 10 of his 12 home runs. In his worst games, Velasquez’s curve and slider tend to get slammed. Velasquez' four-seam fastball is responsible for more than half of his opposing homers. His sinker and curveball are likewise yielding an ISO of .200 or worse. But the Yankees rank 24th in homers hit against the fastball, curve, and sinker away from home. Conversely, the three non-division opponents that achieved at least four runs and a homer against Velasquez—Milwaukee, St. Louis, and Arizona— rank in the top 12 in the category.
The Yanks are showing poor road form, producing more than four runs in only three away games in June—in one of those games, they faced a minor leaguer in Detroit, in another they benefitted from a fortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play), and in the third they exploded against the Jays’ bullpen. In their last eight road games, they’re averaging two runs per game despite generally low-quallity competition.
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23-year-old Jonathan Loaisiga (1-0, 3.12 ERA) makes his third start in place of injured starter Masahiro Tanaka. He overwhelmed Tampa Bay in his first start with his element of surprise. But then he struggled against Seattle, lasting only 3.2 innings in an inefficient outing that yielded three runs. Despite a solid first-pitch strike rate, he threw in the zone with less than 40% frequency in both starts. So he has confidence and, based on his minor league numbers, probably adequate command. However, his stuff lacks the quality to finish off batters with. With the element of surprise gone and facing a more disciplined lineup, Seattle avoided chasing his pitches and achieved a high hard and medium contact and line drive percentages.
The Phillies have the sixth-lowest swing percentage against pitches outside of the zone, so they’ll make him throw strikes, which he hasn’t shown the ability to do consistently throughout at-bats. After all, Loaisiga is starting by necessity and not by choice. Before Tanaka’s injury, he was yielding an ERA over 4.00 in double-A.
The Phillies’ schedule is getting harder, but they’re only playing better. They've won three consecutive series—against Milwaukee, St. Louis, and Washington. In order to win this series, they’ll have to win tonight before they face the dominant Luis Severino tomorrow. Look out for Odubel Herrera, who is slugging over 1.000 in his past seven days and slugs over .500 both against righties and at night.
The Phillies begin a three-game home series with the Yankees on Monday at 7:05 ET. They’ll look to win their third straight series opener behind a propitious pitching match-up
New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies
MLB Pick: 1H Phillies
It’s tempting to compare team records and simply bet on the „better“ team. But the season is so long, consisting of so many games in a week, and filled with innumerable vicissitudes over time, that season stats lose all meaning when they’re not consistent with the recent form of a given team or player. The worst thing about betting on big names is the chalk. The question therefore becomes, is there any value in such a risky investment?
Vince Velasquez (5-7, 4.82 ERA) is having a stronger season than it appears on the surface. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) is 3.78, down 1.74 from last season. He’s striking out over two batters more per nine innings, walking a batter less, and allowing fewer homers. The key for him has been to vary his pitch usage in order to become less predictable. He’s reduced his fastball usage by 11 percent and throws his sinker, curveball, and slider more often. Despite his increased slider usage, opponents’ BA against it is down from .185 last season to .149. He reliably induces ground balls with it. Its .085 opposing ISO shows that he doesn’t make many mistakes with its location, which batters would exploit with extra-base hits. He relies on it especially against right-handed batters, so Yankees slugger Giancarlo Stanton is in trouble. He's 5-for-44 against the slider from righties this season.
Velasquez tends to be worse at home, where he’s surrendered 10 of his 12 home runs. In his worst games, Velasquez’s curve and slider tend to get slammed. Velasquez' four-seam fastball is responsible for more than half of his opposing homers. His sinker and curveball are likewise yielding an ISO of .200 or worse. But the Yankees rank 24th in homers hit against the fastball, curve, and sinker away from home. Conversely, the three non-division opponents that achieved at least four runs and a homer against Velasquez—Milwaukee, St. Louis, and Arizona— rank in the top 12 in the category.
The Yanks are showing poor road form, producing more than four runs in only three away games in June—in one of those games, they faced a minor leaguer in Detroit, in another they benefitted from a fortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play), and in the third they exploded against the Jays’ bullpen. In their last eight road games, they’re averaging two runs per game despite generally low-quallity competition.
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23-year-old Jonathan Loaisiga (1-0, 3.12 ERA) makes his third start in place of injured starter Masahiro Tanaka. He overwhelmed Tampa Bay in his first start with his element of surprise. But then he struggled against Seattle, lasting only 3.2 innings in an inefficient outing that yielded three runs. Despite a solid first-pitch strike rate, he threw in the zone with less than 40% frequency in both starts. So he has confidence and, based on his minor league numbers, probably adequate command. However, his stuff lacks the quality to finish off batters with. With the element of surprise gone and facing a more disciplined lineup, Seattle avoided chasing his pitches and achieved a high hard and medium contact and line drive percentages.
The Phillies have the sixth-lowest swing percentage against pitches outside of the zone, so they’ll make him throw strikes, which he hasn’t shown the ability to do consistently throughout at-bats. After all, Loaisiga is starting by necessity and not by choice. Before Tanaka’s injury, he was yielding an ERA over 4.00 in double-A.
The Phillies’ schedule is getting harder, but they’re only playing better. They've won three consecutive series—against Milwaukee, St. Louis, and Washington. In order to win this series, they’ll have to win tonight before they face the dominant Luis Severino tomorrow. Look out for Odubel Herrera, who is slugging over 1.000 in his past seven days and slugs over .500 both against righties and at night.
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