Phillies vs. Nationals: MLB Best Bets
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
Thursday, August 27, 2020 at 6:37 p.m. ET (FOX) at Nationals Park in Washington D.C.
Spencer Howard
Philadelphia starter Spencer Howard’s 6.17 ERA reflects the first two games of his professional career.
But he put things together in his last start at Toronto where he yielded a 2.04 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) and struck out 12.27 batters per nine innings.
Part of Howard’s improvement derives from tactical adjustment.
Howard was getting crushed with his first pitch. For example, Atlanta slugged 2.000 against Howard when the count was 0-0.
Against Toronto, Howard strongly reduced his first-pitch strike rate, instead relying more heavily on his whiff-generating ability.
Howard Match-Up
When facing Toronto, Howard also benefitted from a stronger match-up.
Whereas the Braves rank third in slugging rate against the fastball from righties, the Blue Jays rank 21st in the category. Atlanta hit .455 against Howard’s fastball, but Toronto only .231.
This match-up detail is crucial for Howard because he relies heavily on his fastball. He throws this pitch with 60.83 percent frequency.
With its above-average velocity, positive spin rate, and moderate horizontal movement, Spencer’s fastball is proving itself as a prominent weapon against the right match-up.
I dislike Washington’s lineup today because it ranks one spot behind Toronto in slugging rate against the fastball from righties.
Expect relatively little from star Juan Soto as he’s batting .222 this season against the fastball from righties.
Worried About Max Scherzer?
In several respects, Washington starter Max Scherzer (2-1, 4.31 ERA) is performing as poorly as he ever has since 2011.
His ERA, FIP, and xFIP are at their highest since that season.
While he’s still striking out plenty of batters, he’s also allowing more walks, hard contact, and home runs than he ever has in his career.
But Why?
It’s trivially true that the fact that a pitcher’s numbers are down entails absolutely nothing about how he will perform in a given game.
The key for tonight’s game, then, is to figure out whether Scherzer is struggling because something is wrong with him or because he’s faced tough match-ups. The answer involves a bit of both.
So let’s look at one more number. Scherzer's main culprit is his fastball, which is easily his favorite pitch by usage rate.
Currently, his fastball is yielding a .323 BA and .597 slugging rate. In contrast, last year, this pitch yielded a .215 BA and .391 slugging rate.
In his fastball, velocity, spin rate, and horizontal movement are a bit down. So the pitch is a bit less hard, a bit less deceptive, and somewhat duller.
He also doesn’t locate it well. Almost 10 percent of its strikes land exactly down the middle.
These details do not explain why he’s performing well with his fastball against some teams.
Whereas he yielded an ERA over 6.00 against both the Orioles and Marlins, he thrived like his usual self against the Blue Jays and Mets.
Baltimore ranks fourth in slugging against the fastball from righties, the Marlins 12th. Both teams slugged .700 or better against Scherzer’s fastball.
In contrast, the Mets and Jays rank in the bottom half in the category and slugged below .300 against his fastball.
So, Scherzer’s fastball isn’t good enough to challenge teams that are above-average against this pitch and this is why he is having a down year.
But Scherzer is still good enough to handle teams that struggle hitting fastballs as if he were his old self.
After all, his fastball’s regression in velocity, spin rate, and horizontal movement is rather negligible. And his stuff has always been good enough to withstand subpar location.
Scherzer vs. Philly Batters
I think that Scherzer will thrive against the Phillies because they rank 20th in slugging against the fastball from righties, which is below both the Jays and Mets.
Philadelphia’s fastball struggles explain why active Philly batters hit .157 and slug .296 in 170 at-bats against Scherzer. Rhys Hoskins, for example, is an absurd 0-for-17 with 10 strikeouts against Scherzer.
Betting Value In The Phillies?
As of now, the numbers show that Washington superstar Max Scherzer is not having a superstar-like season or even a good season. But oddsmakers are treating Scherzer as if he were.
Because they are so heavily underdogged, the Phillies have nice value in what looks to be an even match-up.
If you want to invest in a side, be sure to confine your play on the Phillies to a first-half play because their bullpen is awful.
Why The Total Is A Stronger Play
It is hard for me to back a side that won't hit the ball well.
The total is as high as it is because oddsmakers are not giving Spencer Howard his due respect.
His stuff is superb. Howard flashes a live fastball and a change-up that he masks well by releasing it from a very similar angle.
Howard’s change-up averages 15 mph less velocity than his fastball, thus creating a tremendous change of pace that is hard for batters to foresee.
Moreover, Howard’s command is underrated given his track record in individual performances and scouting reports.
Pitch percentages also attest to his ability to vary location, avoid the middle of the strike zone, and to concentrate on the borders of the zone.
The Verdict
I get that it may be hard to pick an „under“ with two pitchers who have high ERAs. But in breaking down both pitchers, we find tremendous reason to support them tonight.
Scherzer will pretend to be his usual, dominant self against a team that won’t hit his favorite pitch. Howard is underrated and also matches up well with his opponent.
Best Bet: First-Half Under (Odds TBA)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
Thursday, August 27, 2020 at 6:37 p.m. ET (FOX) at Nationals Park in Washington D.C.
Spencer Howard
Philadelphia starter Spencer Howard’s 6.17 ERA reflects the first two games of his professional career.
But he put things together in his last start at Toronto where he yielded a 2.04 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) and struck out 12.27 batters per nine innings.
Part of Howard’s improvement derives from tactical adjustment.
Howard was getting crushed with his first pitch. For example, Atlanta slugged 2.000 against Howard when the count was 0-0.
Against Toronto, Howard strongly reduced his first-pitch strike rate, instead relying more heavily on his whiff-generating ability.
Howard Match-Up
When facing Toronto, Howard also benefitted from a stronger match-up.
Whereas the Braves rank third in slugging rate against the fastball from righties, the Blue Jays rank 21st in the category. Atlanta hit .455 against Howard’s fastball, but Toronto only .231.
This match-up detail is crucial for Howard because he relies heavily on his fastball. He throws this pitch with 60.83 percent frequency.
With its above-average velocity, positive spin rate, and moderate horizontal movement, Spencer’s fastball is proving itself as a prominent weapon against the right match-up.
I dislike Washington’s lineup today because it ranks one spot behind Toronto in slugging rate against the fastball from righties.
Expect relatively little from star Juan Soto as he’s batting .222 this season against the fastball from righties.
Worried About Max Scherzer?
In several respects, Washington starter Max Scherzer (2-1, 4.31 ERA) is performing as poorly as he ever has since 2011.
His ERA, FIP, and xFIP are at their highest since that season.
While he’s still striking out plenty of batters, he’s also allowing more walks, hard contact, and home runs than he ever has in his career.
But Why?
It’s trivially true that the fact that a pitcher’s numbers are down entails absolutely nothing about how he will perform in a given game.
The key for tonight’s game, then, is to figure out whether Scherzer is struggling because something is wrong with him or because he’s faced tough match-ups. The answer involves a bit of both.
So let’s look at one more number. Scherzer's main culprit is his fastball, which is easily his favorite pitch by usage rate.
Currently, his fastball is yielding a .323 BA and .597 slugging rate. In contrast, last year, this pitch yielded a .215 BA and .391 slugging rate.
In his fastball, velocity, spin rate, and horizontal movement are a bit down. So the pitch is a bit less hard, a bit less deceptive, and somewhat duller.
He also doesn’t locate it well. Almost 10 percent of its strikes land exactly down the middle.
These details do not explain why he’s performing well with his fastball against some teams.
Whereas he yielded an ERA over 6.00 against both the Orioles and Marlins, he thrived like his usual self against the Blue Jays and Mets.
Baltimore ranks fourth in slugging against the fastball from righties, the Marlins 12th. Both teams slugged .700 or better against Scherzer’s fastball.
In contrast, the Mets and Jays rank in the bottom half in the category and slugged below .300 against his fastball.
So, Scherzer’s fastball isn’t good enough to challenge teams that are above-average against this pitch and this is why he is having a down year.
But Scherzer is still good enough to handle teams that struggle hitting fastballs as if he were his old self.
After all, his fastball’s regression in velocity, spin rate, and horizontal movement is rather negligible. And his stuff has always been good enough to withstand subpar location.
Scherzer vs. Philly Batters
I think that Scherzer will thrive against the Phillies because they rank 20th in slugging against the fastball from righties, which is below both the Jays and Mets.
Philadelphia’s fastball struggles explain why active Philly batters hit .157 and slug .296 in 170 at-bats against Scherzer. Rhys Hoskins, for example, is an absurd 0-for-17 with 10 strikeouts against Scherzer.
Betting Value In The Phillies?
As of now, the numbers show that Washington superstar Max Scherzer is not having a superstar-like season or even a good season. But oddsmakers are treating Scherzer as if he were.
Because they are so heavily underdogged, the Phillies have nice value in what looks to be an even match-up.
If you want to invest in a side, be sure to confine your play on the Phillies to a first-half play because their bullpen is awful.
Why The Total Is A Stronger Play
It is hard for me to back a side that won't hit the ball well.
The total is as high as it is because oddsmakers are not giving Spencer Howard his due respect.
His stuff is superb. Howard flashes a live fastball and a change-up that he masks well by releasing it from a very similar angle.
Howard’s change-up averages 15 mph less velocity than his fastball, thus creating a tremendous change of pace that is hard for batters to foresee.
Moreover, Howard’s command is underrated given his track record in individual performances and scouting reports.
Pitch percentages also attest to his ability to vary location, avoid the middle of the strike zone, and to concentrate on the borders of the zone.
The Verdict
I get that it may be hard to pick an „under“ with two pitchers who have high ERAs. But in breaking down both pitchers, we find tremendous reason to support them tonight.
Scherzer will pretend to be his usual, dominant self against a team that won’t hit his favorite pitch. Howard is underrated and also matches up well with his opponent.
Best Bet: First-Half Under (Odds TBA)
