Phillies vs Nationals: MLB Best Bets
Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals
Tuesday, August 25, 2020 at 6:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park in Washington D.C.
Jake Arrieta
While Philadelphia starter Jake Arrieta’s ERA is currently a bit higher than it was last year — 4.95 versus 4.64 — one can make a strong case that he is performing better.
His FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) is lower than last year’s as is his xFIP (like FIP, but adjusts for league-average ratio of fly balls to home runs). His 3.71 xFIP is actually only .03 higher than his xFIP in 2016, which was a superb year for him.
Primarily, Arrieta throws a sinker. This pitch alone has predominated his pitch selection in each of the past five seasons.
Arrieta’s sinker is characterized by strong horizontal movement that approaches same-handed batters.
He’s able to corral his sinker’s strong movement by avoiding the middle of the strike zone with it. Instead, some of its most frequent landing spots by percentage are along either lateral border of the strike zone.
What is new for Arrieta this season is his emphasis on his slider. Last year, he threw it 12 percent of the time. This year, he’s throwing it 24 percent of the time.
Arrieta has progressed from walking 3.38 batters per nine innings last year to walking 2.70 of them per nine innings this year. I suspect that his slider usage is a major reason why.
Last year, when he fell behind in the count, he threw his change-up 17 percent of the time to lefties. But now he hardly throws his change-up in this situation.
Instead, he is emphasizing his slider to both righties and lefties much more often. This newfound emphasis is positively difference-making because his slider currently yields a .133 opposing BA.
This year, Arrieta is vastly more able to come back in the count because he’s offering stronger stuff when falling behind.
The slider gives Arrieta a very strong second-favorite pitch after his characteristic sinker. It has excellent average velocity — 88 mph — and difficult, somewhat cutter-like movement.
Its three most frequent locations in the strike zone are along one of the borders. For these reasons, his slider is about as good as it has ever been for him.
Arrieta vs Nationals Batters
Even while Arrieta was worse (based on, higher FIP, higher xFIP, higher walk rate, less effective and lower slider usage) last year than he is now, he still thrived against a stronger, championship-level Nationals lineup.
Last year, he achieved a 2.12 ERA in three starts against the Nationals.
Flourishing against the Nationals has formed such a consistent part of Arrieta’s career that Nationals Park has become somewhat of a home away from home for him.
In six career starts in Washington D.C., he owns a 2.57 ERA. Of the 24 ballparks in which he’s started multiple times, Washington’s is his second-best.
Given the fact that Arrieta feels at home in D.C., oddsmakers offer us betting value because they are treating Philly like the road team.
Active Nationals batters are producing a paltry .199 BA and .346 slugging rate in 156 career at-bats against Arrieta.
Trea Turner, for example, is 3-for-18 (.167). Like his current team, Turner has more strikeouts than hits when facing Arrieta.
Erick Fedde
Washington starter Erick Fedde ( 1-1, 2.55 ERA) seems to be performing well on the surface.
But his low ERA masks a 5.57 FIP and 5.44 xFIP.
Fedde’s ERA has benefitted from his fortunately low BABIP (batting average of balls in play) and from his unsustainably high strand rate (86.8 percent).
Fedde vs Phillies Batters
Also, Fedde is surviving his high walk rate. Philly batters are seeing the plate well, ranking 10th in lowest percentage of swings at pitches outside the strike zone in the past week.
Their improved plate discipline will force Fedde to throw more strikes.
Fedde relies very heavily on his sinker — he throws it with 61 percent frequency — and he will have to offer Philadelphia more hittable sinkers.
The Phillies match up well with Fedde because they rank third in slugging rate against the sinker from righties. Their slugging rate against the sinker from righties is nearly .100 higher than Washington’s.
Not only will the Phillies thrive against Fedde’s favorite pitch, they also won’t have to deal with nearly the same quality in secondary pitch offerings that Washington’s lineup will confront in Arrieta.
In terms of batters, Rhys Hoskins has been picking up steam after a slow start.
Currently slugging .667, Bryce Harper has been having a superb year after disappointing last year. Harper feels at home in D.C., where he used to play.
The Verdict
I want to focus on the Phillies’ starting pitcher advantage.
Arrieta’s superior pitch variety, history in D.C., and stronger match-up with the opposing lineup are three reasons why you should trust him over Fedde.
Sportsbooks have the Phillies’ first-half ML priced at -125. I find this reasonable. But if the betting odds climb high enough, you’ll want to take the Phillies on the first-half run-line.
Best Bet: Phillies First-Half ML at -125 with Bovada
Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals
Tuesday, August 25, 2020 at 6:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park in Washington D.C.
Jake Arrieta
While Philadelphia starter Jake Arrieta’s ERA is currently a bit higher than it was last year — 4.95 versus 4.64 — one can make a strong case that he is performing better.
His FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) is lower than last year’s as is his xFIP (like FIP, but adjusts for league-average ratio of fly balls to home runs). His 3.71 xFIP is actually only .03 higher than his xFIP in 2016, which was a superb year for him.
Primarily, Arrieta throws a sinker. This pitch alone has predominated his pitch selection in each of the past five seasons.
Arrieta’s sinker is characterized by strong horizontal movement that approaches same-handed batters.
He’s able to corral his sinker’s strong movement by avoiding the middle of the strike zone with it. Instead, some of its most frequent landing spots by percentage are along either lateral border of the strike zone.
What is new for Arrieta this season is his emphasis on his slider. Last year, he threw it 12 percent of the time. This year, he’s throwing it 24 percent of the time.
Arrieta has progressed from walking 3.38 batters per nine innings last year to walking 2.70 of them per nine innings this year. I suspect that his slider usage is a major reason why.
Last year, when he fell behind in the count, he threw his change-up 17 percent of the time to lefties. But now he hardly throws his change-up in this situation.
Instead, he is emphasizing his slider to both righties and lefties much more often. This newfound emphasis is positively difference-making because his slider currently yields a .133 opposing BA.
This year, Arrieta is vastly more able to come back in the count because he’s offering stronger stuff when falling behind.
The slider gives Arrieta a very strong second-favorite pitch after his characteristic sinker. It has excellent average velocity — 88 mph — and difficult, somewhat cutter-like movement.
Its three most frequent locations in the strike zone are along one of the borders. For these reasons, his slider is about as good as it has ever been for him.
Arrieta vs Nationals Batters
Even while Arrieta was worse (based on, higher FIP, higher xFIP, higher walk rate, less effective and lower slider usage) last year than he is now, he still thrived against a stronger, championship-level Nationals lineup.
Last year, he achieved a 2.12 ERA in three starts against the Nationals.
Flourishing against the Nationals has formed such a consistent part of Arrieta’s career that Nationals Park has become somewhat of a home away from home for him.
In six career starts in Washington D.C., he owns a 2.57 ERA. Of the 24 ballparks in which he’s started multiple times, Washington’s is his second-best.
Given the fact that Arrieta feels at home in D.C., oddsmakers offer us betting value because they are treating Philly like the road team.
Active Nationals batters are producing a paltry .199 BA and .346 slugging rate in 156 career at-bats against Arrieta.
Trea Turner, for example, is 3-for-18 (.167). Like his current team, Turner has more strikeouts than hits when facing Arrieta.
Erick Fedde
Washington starter Erick Fedde ( 1-1, 2.55 ERA) seems to be performing well on the surface.
But his low ERA masks a 5.57 FIP and 5.44 xFIP.
Fedde’s ERA has benefitted from his fortunately low BABIP (batting average of balls in play) and from his unsustainably high strand rate (86.8 percent).
Fedde vs Phillies Batters
Also, Fedde is surviving his high walk rate. Philly batters are seeing the plate well, ranking 10th in lowest percentage of swings at pitches outside the strike zone in the past week.
Their improved plate discipline will force Fedde to throw more strikes.
Fedde relies very heavily on his sinker — he throws it with 61 percent frequency — and he will have to offer Philadelphia more hittable sinkers.
The Phillies match up well with Fedde because they rank third in slugging rate against the sinker from righties. Their slugging rate against the sinker from righties is nearly .100 higher than Washington’s.
Not only will the Phillies thrive against Fedde’s favorite pitch, they also won’t have to deal with nearly the same quality in secondary pitch offerings that Washington’s lineup will confront in Arrieta.
In terms of batters, Rhys Hoskins has been picking up steam after a slow start.
Currently slugging .667, Bryce Harper has been having a superb year after disappointing last year. Harper feels at home in D.C., where he used to play.
The Verdict
I want to focus on the Phillies’ starting pitcher advantage.
Arrieta’s superior pitch variety, history in D.C., and stronger match-up with the opposing lineup are three reasons why you should trust him over Fedde.
Sportsbooks have the Phillies’ first-half ML priced at -125. I find this reasonable. But if the betting odds climb high enough, you’ll want to take the Phillies on the first-half run-line.
Best Bet: Phillies First-Half ML at -125 with Bovada
