Phillies Pitcher Aaron Nola Will Make Washington Lose National Pride
The Phillies begin a three-game series at home against the Nationals at 7:05 ET. A decisive pitching mismatch justifies a first-five play on Philadelphi
Washington Nationals (41-37) at Philadelphia Phillies (42-36)
MLB Pick: Phillies 1H
Washington’s Tanner Roark (3-8, 4.27 ERA) consistently disappoints his backers. He is yielding -8 units overall, -4.8 against division opponents, and -6.1 in night games. Roark is a finesse pitcher who relies on the variety and location of his pitches. He throws five different pones with at least 10 percent frequency, but his top pitch is the sinker, which he throws 39% of the time. He likes to use the vertical movement of his pitches to locate them most often in the lowest row of the strike zone, away from the more dangerous parts of the plate.
Roark is unreliable given his current struggles to locate his pitches well. Roark has yielded an FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) over 4.40 in five consecutive starts and allowed a homer in his last four. Before his slump began, there were three spots in the lowest row of the zone in which he placed his favorite pitch, the sinker, with over six percent frequency. During his slump, his sinker isn’t hitting any spot in the lowest row of the zone with even five percent frequency. Instead, he’s leaving his sinker in more dangerous areas. For example, his sinker is hitting dead middle with almost four percent added frequency and the three most middle spots in the zone with twice as much frequency. Roark’s location is all the more worrisome considering his overall problems with command and his predictability. He is locating his pitches within the zone less often and achieving a lower first-pitch strike percentage. Because he relies on his sinker with extra emphasis when he’s behind in the count, batters have been more often able to sit on his poorly-located sinker. In his last three starts, Roark is yielding an opposing BA over .300 against his favorite pitch.
The Phillies enjoy a strong history against Roark, who they slammed for six runs in his last start. Look out for Odubel Herrera, who is 15-for-34 (.441) against Roark with five doubles and a homer. He slugs over .500 at home and at night,
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Aaron Nola (9-2, 2.58 ERA) is a must-bet at home, where the Phillies are 7-0 in his starts. Nola hasn’t allowed over a run in four home starts since April.
Nola relies on a variety of pitches, neither one of which he throws with more than 35% frequency. His key is unpredictability—he doesn’t have that one pitch, like Roark does, which he relies on over 50% of the time in a given scenario. For example, to lefties he throws both a first-pitch fastball and curve with over 30% frequency. When he’s behind in the count against righties, he throws three different pitches over 20% of the time. So batters don’t know what to expect. He commands his four pitches well, allowing an opposing BA of .215 or under against each of them and an ISO (measures extra-base hits) under .100 against three of them.
The Nats do enjoy strong overall numbers against Nola, but these stem primarily from one disaster back in 2016 and another in 2015, Nola’s rookie year. Dating to 2017, Nola has yielded an FIP under 2.00 in four of his last five starts against the Nats. He did just see (and defeat) them on May 22, but his deceptiveness created by similar vertical release points always keeps him unpredictable so that he could, for instance, yield a sub-three FIP against Atlanta three times in a single month.
The Nats are slumping, having lost four of five and scoring less than three runs in three of those games. Superstar Bryce Harper, for instance, is batting .184 in June. Nola will prolong their slump.
The Phillies begin a three-game series at home against the Nationals at 7:05 ET. A decisive pitching mismatch justifies a first-five play on Philadelphi
Washington Nationals (41-37) at Philadelphia Phillies (42-36)
MLB Pick: Phillies 1H
Washington’s Tanner Roark (3-8, 4.27 ERA) consistently disappoints his backers. He is yielding -8 units overall, -4.8 against division opponents, and -6.1 in night games. Roark is a finesse pitcher who relies on the variety and location of his pitches. He throws five different pones with at least 10 percent frequency, but his top pitch is the sinker, which he throws 39% of the time. He likes to use the vertical movement of his pitches to locate them most often in the lowest row of the strike zone, away from the more dangerous parts of the plate.
Roark is unreliable given his current struggles to locate his pitches well. Roark has yielded an FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) over 4.40 in five consecutive starts and allowed a homer in his last four. Before his slump began, there were three spots in the lowest row of the zone in which he placed his favorite pitch, the sinker, with over six percent frequency. During his slump, his sinker isn’t hitting any spot in the lowest row of the zone with even five percent frequency. Instead, he’s leaving his sinker in more dangerous areas. For example, his sinker is hitting dead middle with almost four percent added frequency and the three most middle spots in the zone with twice as much frequency. Roark’s location is all the more worrisome considering his overall problems with command and his predictability. He is locating his pitches within the zone less often and achieving a lower first-pitch strike percentage. Because he relies on his sinker with extra emphasis when he’s behind in the count, batters have been more often able to sit on his poorly-located sinker. In his last three starts, Roark is yielding an opposing BA over .300 against his favorite pitch.
The Phillies enjoy a strong history against Roark, who they slammed for six runs in his last start. Look out for Odubel Herrera, who is 15-for-34 (.441) against Roark with five doubles and a homer. He slugs over .500 at home and at night,
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Aaron Nola (9-2, 2.58 ERA) is a must-bet at home, where the Phillies are 7-0 in his starts. Nola hasn’t allowed over a run in four home starts since April.
Nola relies on a variety of pitches, neither one of which he throws with more than 35% frequency. His key is unpredictability—he doesn’t have that one pitch, like Roark does, which he relies on over 50% of the time in a given scenario. For example, to lefties he throws both a first-pitch fastball and curve with over 30% frequency. When he’s behind in the count against righties, he throws three different pitches over 20% of the time. So batters don’t know what to expect. He commands his four pitches well, allowing an opposing BA of .215 or under against each of them and an ISO (measures extra-base hits) under .100 against three of them.
The Nats do enjoy strong overall numbers against Nola, but these stem primarily from one disaster back in 2016 and another in 2015, Nola’s rookie year. Dating to 2017, Nola has yielded an FIP under 2.00 in four of his last five starts against the Nats. He did just see (and defeat) them on May 22, but his deceptiveness created by similar vertical release points always keeps him unpredictable so that he could, for instance, yield a sub-three FIP against Atlanta three times in a single month.
The Nats are slumping, having lost four of five and scoring less than three runs in three of those games. Superstar Bryce Harper, for instance, is batting .184 in June. Nola will prolong their slump.
