Phillies vs. Mets Sunday Night Baseball Preview and Best Bet
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Sunday, September 19, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Citi Field in Queens, New York
Rich Hill
Tonight's starter for New York, Rich Hill, hopes to bounce back after yielding a 5.40 ERA -- by allowing three earned runs in five innings -- in his last start against St. Louis.
Hill continues to be a primarily two-pitch guy, which is normal for a reliever but strange for a starter.
Typically, a starter wants to develop a more varied pitching arsenal in order to prevent batters from becoming too familiar with him in the course of an outing.
If batters have fewer (primary) pitches to see, then it tends to become easier to figure the pitcher out.
This seems to be the case with Hill because he suffers a significant drop-off in quality during the course of a start.
Whereas he yields a 2.27 ERA when he faces a lineup for the first time in a game, he yields a 5.57 ERA when he sees the same lineup for the second time in the same game.
I do think the Phillies will score plenty of runs against Hill, but we may have to be patient and wait a couple of innings.
Hill vs. Philly Batters
But then again, maybe we won't have to be patient.
The Phillies are likely to score right away against Hill because they match up well with him.
Primarily, Hill throws a fastball and a curveball. Both pitches combine for nearly 90 percent of his arsenal.
Philadelphia, however, ranks 10th in slugging .451 against his two pitches combined from lefties.
As part of the Phillies' current four-game winning streak, they are also exhibiting strong hitting form.
During this four-game span, they've scored a combined total of 32 runs.
To be fair, one of those games featured a Philly explosion for 17 runs.
But they remained consistent in the other three games, scoring six, four, and five runs, respectively.
Hill hasn't seen much of Philly batters, such that their current collective BA and slugging rate against him can look drastically different after a single performance against him.
Freddy Galvis is one batter who is worth relying on tonight. He is 4-for-14 (.286) with a double in his career against Hill.
J.T. Realmuto and Andrew McCutchen also bat .286 or higher in their career against Hill.
Kyle Gibson
Whereas only Hill's last start rings alarm bells, Philly starter Kyle Gibson is suffering poor form over a more extended period of time.
In his last three starts, Gibson has yielded a 13.50, 5.79, and 7.20 ERA, respectively.
It's not like he was facing superb competition, either. One of those starts came against the lowly Marlins, for example, who rank 28th in scoring 3.93 runs per game.
Gibson vs. Met Batters
One respect in which Gibson distinguishes himself from Hill is in the wide variety of pitches that he throws.
Gibson's favorite pitch is his sinker, which he throws with 34.1 percent frequency.
He throws four different pitches with between 13 and 16 percent frequency.
Met batters have a ton of history against Gibson and his variety -- they've combined for 123 career at-bats against him.
They hit .333 and slug .463 when facing Gibson in those at-bats.
Four different Met batters, almost half a lineup, slug at least .500 in at least five at-bats against Gibson.
Those batters are: Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Kevin Pillar, and J.D. Davis.
Pillar also bats .364 against him, while the other three hit .400 or higher with Gibson on the mound.
Location won't help Gibson tonight. In two career starts in New York's Citi Field, he doesn't even average the number of innings required, five, for a pitcher to be able to collect the win.
Gibson, in those two starts, is 0-1 with a 5.59 ERA.
Bullpen
Neither bullpen ranks highly, but especially Philadelphia's promises to surrender many runs.
This season, Philly's bullpen has the sixth-worst ERA and it ranks fourth-worst in ERA in the past month.
Team Rhythm
Although I have spoken out more strongly against Philadelphia pitching, I like the "over" more than I do the Mets.
Team rhythm is a valuable factor to consider because it helps explain why teams go on winning or losing streaks.
Whereas the Phillies have won four in a row, the Mets have lost five in a row.
Recent Met losses have come at the hands of solid pitchers, like Zack Wheeler, who owns them historically.
They've also suffered some unfortunate luck. When Cardinal Jon Lester, for example, pitched against them, he yielded a good ERA but also yielded a 5.16 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding).
So one could argue that Lester should have allowed more runs.
Met hitting has not been the problem: the team is simply not finding ways to win.
So, given its history against Gibson and given the problems of Philadelphia's bullpen, New York will score plenty of runs tonight.
Philadelphia, with the positive form of its lineup, with its match-up advantage against Hill, and facing New York's rather average (based on ERA and FIP) bullpen, will also contribute to a higher-scoring contest.
Best Bet: Over 8.5 at -103 with Heritage
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Sunday, September 19, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Citi Field in Queens, New York
Rich Hill
Tonight's starter for New York, Rich Hill, hopes to bounce back after yielding a 5.40 ERA -- by allowing three earned runs in five innings -- in his last start against St. Louis.
Hill continues to be a primarily two-pitch guy, which is normal for a reliever but strange for a starter.
Typically, a starter wants to develop a more varied pitching arsenal in order to prevent batters from becoming too familiar with him in the course of an outing.
If batters have fewer (primary) pitches to see, then it tends to become easier to figure the pitcher out.
This seems to be the case with Hill because he suffers a significant drop-off in quality during the course of a start.
Whereas he yields a 2.27 ERA when he faces a lineup for the first time in a game, he yields a 5.57 ERA when he sees the same lineup for the second time in the same game.
I do think the Phillies will score plenty of runs against Hill, but we may have to be patient and wait a couple of innings.
Hill vs. Philly Batters
But then again, maybe we won't have to be patient.
The Phillies are likely to score right away against Hill because they match up well with him.
Primarily, Hill throws a fastball and a curveball. Both pitches combine for nearly 90 percent of his arsenal.
Philadelphia, however, ranks 10th in slugging .451 against his two pitches combined from lefties.
As part of the Phillies' current four-game winning streak, they are also exhibiting strong hitting form.
During this four-game span, they've scored a combined total of 32 runs.
To be fair, one of those games featured a Philly explosion for 17 runs.
But they remained consistent in the other three games, scoring six, four, and five runs, respectively.
Hill hasn't seen much of Philly batters, such that their current collective BA and slugging rate against him can look drastically different after a single performance against him.
Freddy Galvis is one batter who is worth relying on tonight. He is 4-for-14 (.286) with a double in his career against Hill.
J.T. Realmuto and Andrew McCutchen also bat .286 or higher in their career against Hill.
Kyle Gibson
Whereas only Hill's last start rings alarm bells, Philly starter Kyle Gibson is suffering poor form over a more extended period of time.
In his last three starts, Gibson has yielded a 13.50, 5.79, and 7.20 ERA, respectively.
It's not like he was facing superb competition, either. One of those starts came against the lowly Marlins, for example, who rank 28th in scoring 3.93 runs per game.
Gibson vs. Met Batters
One respect in which Gibson distinguishes himself from Hill is in the wide variety of pitches that he throws.
Gibson's favorite pitch is his sinker, which he throws with 34.1 percent frequency.
He throws four different pitches with between 13 and 16 percent frequency.
Met batters have a ton of history against Gibson and his variety -- they've combined for 123 career at-bats against him.
They hit .333 and slug .463 when facing Gibson in those at-bats.
Four different Met batters, almost half a lineup, slug at least .500 in at least five at-bats against Gibson.
Those batters are: Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Kevin Pillar, and J.D. Davis.
Pillar also bats .364 against him, while the other three hit .400 or higher with Gibson on the mound.
Location won't help Gibson tonight. In two career starts in New York's Citi Field, he doesn't even average the number of innings required, five, for a pitcher to be able to collect the win.
Gibson, in those two starts, is 0-1 with a 5.59 ERA.
Bullpen
Neither bullpen ranks highly, but especially Philadelphia's promises to surrender many runs.
This season, Philly's bullpen has the sixth-worst ERA and it ranks fourth-worst in ERA in the past month.
Team Rhythm
Although I have spoken out more strongly against Philadelphia pitching, I like the "over" more than I do the Mets.
Team rhythm is a valuable factor to consider because it helps explain why teams go on winning or losing streaks.
Whereas the Phillies have won four in a row, the Mets have lost five in a row.
Recent Met losses have come at the hands of solid pitchers, like Zack Wheeler, who owns them historically.
They've also suffered some unfortunate luck. When Cardinal Jon Lester, for example, pitched against them, he yielded a good ERA but also yielded a 5.16 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding).
So one could argue that Lester should have allowed more runs.
Met hitting has not been the problem: the team is simply not finding ways to win.
So, given its history against Gibson and given the problems of Philadelphia's bullpen, New York will score plenty of runs tonight.
Philadelphia, with the positive form of its lineup, with its match-up advantage against Hill, and facing New York's rather average (based on ERA and FIP) bullpen, will also contribute to a higher-scoring contest.
Best Bet: Over 8.5 at -103 with Heritage
