Phillies Won’t Let Dodgers Feel Welcome in City of Brotherly Love
The Dodgers continue their road trip in Philadelphia on Monday at 7:05 ET. The Phillies have been a positive surprise, especially because of their strong play at home.
Dodgers at Phillies
MLB Pick: Phillies 1H
Philadelphia’s Zach Eflin (7-2, 3.15 ERA) promises to continue his surprisingly positive start to the season. He’s brought his FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) from 6.10 last season to 3.04. He’s striking out almost four more batters per nine innings and reduced his opposing homer-per-nine-innings rate by 60%. Eflin is throwing in the strike zone more often, but allowing less contact overall and less hard contact. After Aaron Nola, Eflin is Philly’s most profitable pitcher, yielding +6 units. The Phillies are 6-1 when he starts as an underdog, yielding +7.3 units.
Eflin has once again made the four-seam fastball his primary pitch. He throws it almost half the time. Eflin is locating it more effectively. Last year, he struggled to throw his fastball for a strike and there were two spots in the zone which he hit with his fastball with more than seven percent frequency . Both spots were in the middle region. Opponents still do well against his fastball when he leaves it in the middle of the plate, but, this season, he can place it much more often on the edge of the zone.
He then relies on a sinker and slider with more than 12% frequency each—with more frequency lately because he is throwing his vulnerable change-up less often. Like against his fastball, he has starkly reduced opposing slugging against his sinker and slider. Eflin has improved the former’s velocity, while placing it more often on the periphery of the zone with more than 18% frequency compared to last year. His slider is better because of his improved fastball, which batters now have to respect.. They share similar vertical and horizontal release points, so batters need more time to figure out which pitch is approaching them, which inhibits their reaction time.
His worst start this season came against the Dodgers, against which he surrendered his highest home run total and second-highest hard contact rate. The young Floridian was exceptionally off that evening. He struggled to locate his slider, which he threw with an exceptionally high ball rate, when, on the season, he normally throws more strikes with it. Overall, Eflin was less comfortable locating his stuff. He made himself more predictable by varying his location less and leaning excessively on his first-pitch fastball to righties. Since his slider was off, he had to rely on his sinker more than he wants to and yielded terrible results. Monday’s Eflin will excel with location and make up for his bad first outing against LA.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Keep counting us out.<br><br>We'll keep proving you wrong. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BeBold?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#BeBold</a> <a href="https://t.co/cl6gY2bY0X">pic.twitter.com/cl6gY2bY0X</a></p>— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) <a href=" ">21. Juli 2018</a></blockquote>
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LA’s Ross Stripling (8-2, 2.08) makes his first start since his unexpected All-Star appearance. Stripling will fail to replicate his gem on May 30 in which he got the win against Eflin’s Phillies in Los Angeles. He has lost some form since he stormed the MLB by surprise from May 6 to June 5. Since then, he is allowing more home runs. He allowed one from May 6 to June 5, but seven homers in the seven starts since then. Since June 10, he’s yielded more than 40% hard contact in four starts. Stripling lost a little velocity, some vertical movement in his favorite curveball, and is throwing with 1.5% more frequency in the heart of the plate.
The Phillies are the MLB’s most profitable home team, yielding +12.6 units. They produce 4.7 runs at home, compared to 4.1 on the road. Look out for Odubel Herrera, who is slugging nearly .500 at home and at night. Maikel Franco is slugging over .450 in both situations. Rhys Hoskins is slugging over .450 at home and against righties.
The Dodgers continue their road trip in Philadelphia on Monday at 7:05 ET. The Phillies have been a positive surprise, especially because of their strong play at home.
Dodgers at Phillies
MLB Pick: Phillies 1H
Philadelphia’s Zach Eflin (7-2, 3.15 ERA) promises to continue his surprisingly positive start to the season. He’s brought his FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) from 6.10 last season to 3.04. He’s striking out almost four more batters per nine innings and reduced his opposing homer-per-nine-innings rate by 60%. Eflin is throwing in the strike zone more often, but allowing less contact overall and less hard contact. After Aaron Nola, Eflin is Philly’s most profitable pitcher, yielding +6 units. The Phillies are 6-1 when he starts as an underdog, yielding +7.3 units.
Eflin has once again made the four-seam fastball his primary pitch. He throws it almost half the time. Eflin is locating it more effectively. Last year, he struggled to throw his fastball for a strike and there were two spots in the zone which he hit with his fastball with more than seven percent frequency . Both spots were in the middle region. Opponents still do well against his fastball when he leaves it in the middle of the plate, but, this season, he can place it much more often on the edge of the zone.
He then relies on a sinker and slider with more than 12% frequency each—with more frequency lately because he is throwing his vulnerable change-up less often. Like against his fastball, he has starkly reduced opposing slugging against his sinker and slider. Eflin has improved the former’s velocity, while placing it more often on the periphery of the zone with more than 18% frequency compared to last year. His slider is better because of his improved fastball, which batters now have to respect.. They share similar vertical and horizontal release points, so batters need more time to figure out which pitch is approaching them, which inhibits their reaction time.
His worst start this season came against the Dodgers, against which he surrendered his highest home run total and second-highest hard contact rate. The young Floridian was exceptionally off that evening. He struggled to locate his slider, which he threw with an exceptionally high ball rate, when, on the season, he normally throws more strikes with it. Overall, Eflin was less comfortable locating his stuff. He made himself more predictable by varying his location less and leaning excessively on his first-pitch fastball to righties. Since his slider was off, he had to rely on his sinker more than he wants to and yielded terrible results. Monday’s Eflin will excel with location and make up for his bad first outing against LA.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Keep counting us out.<br><br>We'll keep proving you wrong. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BeBold?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#BeBold</a> <a href="https://t.co/cl6gY2bY0X">pic.twitter.com/cl6gY2bY0X</a></p>— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) <a href=" ">21. Juli 2018</a></blockquote>
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LA’s Ross Stripling (8-2, 2.08) makes his first start since his unexpected All-Star appearance. Stripling will fail to replicate his gem on May 30 in which he got the win against Eflin’s Phillies in Los Angeles. He has lost some form since he stormed the MLB by surprise from May 6 to June 5. Since then, he is allowing more home runs. He allowed one from May 6 to June 5, but seven homers in the seven starts since then. Since June 10, he’s yielded more than 40% hard contact in four starts. Stripling lost a little velocity, some vertical movement in his favorite curveball, and is throwing with 1.5% more frequency in the heart of the plate.
The Phillies are the MLB’s most profitable home team, yielding +12.6 units. They produce 4.7 runs at home, compared to 4.1 on the road. Look out for Odubel Herrera, who is slugging nearly .500 at home and at night. Maikel Franco is slugging over .450 in both situations. Rhys Hoskins is slugging over .450 at home and against righties.
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