Pitchers Will End Cubs-Phillies Game Quicker Than You Can Blink
The Phillies close a three-game home series with the NL Central-leading Cubs on Sunday afternoon. Philadelphia’s starting pitcher Aaron Nola has been dominant, but Chicago’s starter is primed to keep pace.
Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia
MLB Pick: Under
Chicago’s Jon Lester (14-5, 3.67 ERA) hasn’t looked pretty, but the recent results speak for themselves. He’s conceded combined four runs in his last three starts. Whereas opponents had been shelling him regularly after the All-Star Break, he’s yielded a hard contact rate at least 10 percent below his season average in his last three starts.
The southpaw Lester’s favorite pitch is his fastball, which he throws with 45 percent frequency and most in every scenario. To make up for its lack of velocity, he makes the vertical and horizontal release points between his fastball and his cutter and sinker very similar so that the batter struggles to discern which pitch is leaving his hand. This struggle delays his ability to react quickly enough to the pitch so that Lester’s deception ends up achieving the same effect as high velocity. Lester is also aggressive, concentrating his fastball location inside on both left- and right-handed batters. He also mixes in a cutter and curveball with 40 percent frequency and a change-up with 10 percent frequency. He utilizes these pitches more when runners are in scoring position. His change-up isn’t as soft in relation to his fastball as most pitchers'. It carries strong horizontal movement, which makes it elusive, and he keeps it with 53 percent frequency in the lowest row of the zone, although he often lets it dip out of it. Despite its high ball rate, his change-up generates a high rate of swings and contact, but it’s his favorite whiff and second favorite ground ball-inducing pitch. Opponents bat .187 against it. Opponents haven’t touched his curveball in his past two starts. It has strong arm-side movement and he places it in the lowest row of the zone with 55 percent frequency.
In terms of pitch selection, Lester has largely remained the same throughout his career. During this span, he’s dominated Philly batters in 151 career at-bats. They’re mustering a .212 BA against him. All five homers and three of the six other extra-base hits which he’s conceded have come off the bat of Jose Bautista who isn’t what he used to be in those seasons when he succeeded against Lester. Bautista is bouncing from team to team, mustering a paltry .199 BA— although rumor has it that he can still flip a bat pretty well. Only one Philly hitter, Carlos Santana at .267, has a BA higher than .250 in his career against Lester. The Phillies rank second-to-last in slugging against his three favorite pitches.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="
" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola (15-3, 2.10 ERA) continues to be one of baseball’s most dominant pitchers. He’s yielded one run or fewer in his last four consecutive outings and two runs or fewer in his last six outings. Nola’s strong season continues to defy MLB oddsmakers’ expectations. The „under“ is hitting in a ridiculous 73 percent of his outings overall and in five of his last six and in 10 of his last 12.
Like Lester, Nola relies on deception, movement, and good location. He’s more effective in every regard and therefore more efficient. He’s kept his walk rate and hits allowed low, so that he could endure at least seven innings in his last three starts. His four main pitches are the fastball, curve, change-up, and sinker. HIs fastball and sinker share the most similar vertical and horizontal release points, although the release points of his curveball have been progressing towards those of his fastball and sinker, so that he achieves more deception. His curveball is his most famous pitch and his most effective. Opponents slugged .146 and hit just .098 against it in August. It has strong horizontal and tricky, negative vertical movement. He keeps it with 42 percent frequency in the bottom row of the zone.
It’s no shame to be worse than Nola. Lester has nevertheless been achieving positive results and he matches up optimally against Philly batters. Meanwhile Nola is dominating every opponent with his superior stuff. For these reasons, the „under“ looks like a tastier pick.
The Phillies close a three-game home series with the NL Central-leading Cubs on Sunday afternoon. Philadelphia’s starting pitcher Aaron Nola has been dominant, but Chicago’s starter is primed to keep pace.
Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia
MLB Pick: Under
Chicago’s Jon Lester (14-5, 3.67 ERA) hasn’t looked pretty, but the recent results speak for themselves. He’s conceded combined four runs in his last three starts. Whereas opponents had been shelling him regularly after the All-Star Break, he’s yielded a hard contact rate at least 10 percent below his season average in his last three starts.
The southpaw Lester’s favorite pitch is his fastball, which he throws with 45 percent frequency and most in every scenario. To make up for its lack of velocity, he makes the vertical and horizontal release points between his fastball and his cutter and sinker very similar so that the batter struggles to discern which pitch is leaving his hand. This struggle delays his ability to react quickly enough to the pitch so that Lester’s deception ends up achieving the same effect as high velocity. Lester is also aggressive, concentrating his fastball location inside on both left- and right-handed batters. He also mixes in a cutter and curveball with 40 percent frequency and a change-up with 10 percent frequency. He utilizes these pitches more when runners are in scoring position. His change-up isn’t as soft in relation to his fastball as most pitchers'. It carries strong horizontal movement, which makes it elusive, and he keeps it with 53 percent frequency in the lowest row of the zone, although he often lets it dip out of it. Despite its high ball rate, his change-up generates a high rate of swings and contact, but it’s his favorite whiff and second favorite ground ball-inducing pitch. Opponents bat .187 against it. Opponents haven’t touched his curveball in his past two starts. It has strong arm-side movement and he places it in the lowest row of the zone with 55 percent frequency.
In terms of pitch selection, Lester has largely remained the same throughout his career. During this span, he’s dominated Philly batters in 151 career at-bats. They’re mustering a .212 BA against him. All five homers and three of the six other extra-base hits which he’s conceded have come off the bat of Jose Bautista who isn’t what he used to be in those seasons when he succeeded against Lester. Bautista is bouncing from team to team, mustering a paltry .199 BA— although rumor has it that he can still flip a bat pretty well. Only one Philly hitter, Carlos Santana at .267, has a BA higher than .250 in his career against Lester. The Phillies rank second-to-last in slugging against his three favorite pitches.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="
Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola (15-3, 2.10 ERA) continues to be one of baseball’s most dominant pitchers. He’s yielded one run or fewer in his last four consecutive outings and two runs or fewer in his last six outings. Nola’s strong season continues to defy MLB oddsmakers’ expectations. The „under“ is hitting in a ridiculous 73 percent of his outings overall and in five of his last six and in 10 of his last 12.
Like Lester, Nola relies on deception, movement, and good location. He’s more effective in every regard and therefore more efficient. He’s kept his walk rate and hits allowed low, so that he could endure at least seven innings in his last three starts. His four main pitches are the fastball, curve, change-up, and sinker. HIs fastball and sinker share the most similar vertical and horizontal release points, although the release points of his curveball have been progressing towards those of his fastball and sinker, so that he achieves more deception. His curveball is his most famous pitch and his most effective. Opponents slugged .146 and hit just .098 against it in August. It has strong horizontal and tricky, negative vertical movement. He keeps it with 42 percent frequency in the bottom row of the zone.
It’s no shame to be worse than Nola. Lester has nevertheless been achieving positive results and he matches up optimally against Philly batters. Meanwhile Nola is dominating every opponent with his superior stuff. For these reasons, the „under“ looks like a tastier pick.
input and discussion always appreciated
