St. Louis, Take These Broken Wings and Learn to Fly Again in Philly
After a losing home stand, the Cardinals start a three-game series in Philly at 7:05 ET. They promise to soar thanks to a propitious pitching match-up
St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies
MLB Pick: St. Louis 1H
After suffering an embarrassing home stand, the Cards will feel uplifted by changing locations. The Cards’ 1H ML is undefeated, 2-0-2, in their first road game after losing a series at home.
Philly’s Nick Pivetta (4-6, 4.25 ERA) shows worrisome form. Pivetta’s goal entering his second year was to reduce his fastball usage and develop a more varied pitching arsenal. In three starts from May 16 to May 27, Pivetta threw his fastball with only 34.93% frequency. He allowed three runs and achieved 25 strikeouts in those 19 innings. But in his three starts since May 27, Pivetta is not delivering his other pitches consistently. In the three-start stretch in May, his two main breaking pitches, the curveball and slider, yielded a max .11 foot disparity between starts in vertical release point. Since then, his curveball and slider have shown disparities as great as .31, .19, and .18 feet. Conversely, his fastball shows consistency from start to start in its vertical release points, so he’s throwing it with over 50% frequency. Nonetheless, his fastball has dropped in average rotations per movement. Its reduced spin is giving it less rising action so that he’s inducing whiffs with 7.15% lower frequency. He is struggling to elevate his fastball, leaving it with greater concentration in the middle, more hittable regions of the plate. For instance, he's leaving it with .51% more frequency over the heart of the plate.
Because opponents are more able to sit on his fastball, which he is spinning and locating less effectively, his last three opponents are batting .375 and slugging .583 against it. He’s allowed 13 runs in his last 14 innings. Those three starts came against teams that rank below the Cards against the fastball. The Cards rank 10th in slugging in the past month against the fastball from righties, 9th when also accounting for Pivetta’s average 93-98 mph and 4th for playing away. The Cards are dependent on hitting homers. They have hit the seventh-highest proportion of fastballs for a homer and Pivetta has allowed a homer in his last two outings.
The Cards remain strong against the fastball despite their overall slump. For example, they faced Cincinnati’s Luis Castillo on June 9. He threw his high-velocity fastball with 60% frequency, which the Cards slugged .846 against, achieving five runs against him. Look out for Marcell Ozuna, who is slugging .833 in June. Jose Martinez might return from paternity leave. He’s slugging .900 in June and .539 against righties. In the past month, Martinez and Matt Carpenter are slugging over .700 against the fastball from righties.
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St. Louis is 5-1 in Miles Mikolas’ (7-2, 2.43 ERA) road games, yielding +3.9 units. Mikolas doesn’t rely on any pitch with over 30% frequency. He throws a mid-90s fastball and sinker, a relatively powerful slider and change-up, and a curveball that creates an average 16 mph velocity differential with his four-seamer. Mikolas’ most effective pitch is his slider, which opponents are batting .167 and slugging .208 against. He increases its usage when faced with runners in scoring position, but also trusts it in every situation, especially against right-handed batters.
Mikolas’ slider has been hit hard lately, but that’s because of strong competition. The Padres and Pirates rank in the top seven in slugging against the slider from righties, but the Phillies rank below-average in the category. Overall, the Phillies rank 18th in slugging against his pitches thrown by righties at home. Mikolas is most vulnerable to lefties, but Philly’s lefties rank 20th in the category. The Phillies match-up poorly against high-velocity. For example, they rank 23rd against his average 93-98 mph fastball.
I don’t trust the Cards’ bullpen, but I do trust their starting pitcher and lineup for a 1H play.
After a losing home stand, the Cardinals start a three-game series in Philly at 7:05 ET. They promise to soar thanks to a propitious pitching match-up
St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies
MLB Pick: St. Louis 1H
After suffering an embarrassing home stand, the Cards will feel uplifted by changing locations. The Cards’ 1H ML is undefeated, 2-0-2, in their first road game after losing a series at home.
Philly’s Nick Pivetta (4-6, 4.25 ERA) shows worrisome form. Pivetta’s goal entering his second year was to reduce his fastball usage and develop a more varied pitching arsenal. In three starts from May 16 to May 27, Pivetta threw his fastball with only 34.93% frequency. He allowed three runs and achieved 25 strikeouts in those 19 innings. But in his three starts since May 27, Pivetta is not delivering his other pitches consistently. In the three-start stretch in May, his two main breaking pitches, the curveball and slider, yielded a max .11 foot disparity between starts in vertical release point. Since then, his curveball and slider have shown disparities as great as .31, .19, and .18 feet. Conversely, his fastball shows consistency from start to start in its vertical release points, so he’s throwing it with over 50% frequency. Nonetheless, his fastball has dropped in average rotations per movement. Its reduced spin is giving it less rising action so that he’s inducing whiffs with 7.15% lower frequency. He is struggling to elevate his fastball, leaving it with greater concentration in the middle, more hittable regions of the plate. For instance, he's leaving it with .51% more frequency over the heart of the plate.
Because opponents are more able to sit on his fastball, which he is spinning and locating less effectively, his last three opponents are batting .375 and slugging .583 against it. He’s allowed 13 runs in his last 14 innings. Those three starts came against teams that rank below the Cards against the fastball. The Cards rank 10th in slugging in the past month against the fastball from righties, 9th when also accounting for Pivetta’s average 93-98 mph and 4th for playing away. The Cards are dependent on hitting homers. They have hit the seventh-highest proportion of fastballs for a homer and Pivetta has allowed a homer in his last two outings.
The Cards remain strong against the fastball despite their overall slump. For example, they faced Cincinnati’s Luis Castillo on June 9. He threw his high-velocity fastball with 60% frequency, which the Cards slugged .846 against, achieving five runs against him. Look out for Marcell Ozuna, who is slugging .833 in June. Jose Martinez might return from paternity leave. He’s slugging .900 in June and .539 against righties. In the past month, Martinez and Matt Carpenter are slugging over .700 against the fastball from righties.
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St. Louis is 5-1 in Miles Mikolas’ (7-2, 2.43 ERA) road games, yielding +3.9 units. Mikolas doesn’t rely on any pitch with over 30% frequency. He throws a mid-90s fastball and sinker, a relatively powerful slider and change-up, and a curveball that creates an average 16 mph velocity differential with his four-seamer. Mikolas’ most effective pitch is his slider, which opponents are batting .167 and slugging .208 against. He increases its usage when faced with runners in scoring position, but also trusts it in every situation, especially against right-handed batters.
Mikolas’ slider has been hit hard lately, but that’s because of strong competition. The Padres and Pirates rank in the top seven in slugging against the slider from righties, but the Phillies rank below-average in the category. Overall, the Phillies rank 18th in slugging against his pitches thrown by righties at home. Mikolas is most vulnerable to lefties, but Philly’s lefties rank 20th in the category. The Phillies match-up poorly against high-velocity. For example, they rank 23rd against his average 93-98 mph fastball.
I don’t trust the Cards’ bullpen, but I do trust their starting pitcher and lineup for a 1H play.
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