Phillies vs. Braves Sunday Night Baseball Preview and Pick
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Sunday, April 11, at 7:08 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Truist Park in Cumberland, Georgia
Drew Smyly
Atlanta starter Drew Smyly finished Spring Training on a strong note, allowing zero earned runs in a combined total of 9.2 innings against Tampa Bay and then Boston.
He then continued his positive form in the regular season opener where he allowed two earned runs in six innings against Washington.
One strong feature of his pitching has been his control. This is an aspect where he distinguishes himself from his Philadelphia counterpart.
Since his positive streak began against Tampa Bay, Smyly walked a grand total of two batters.
Characteristically, Smyly is the type of pitcher who rather needs to have good control in order to succeed on the mound.
He has never been known for his velocity. This season, his fastball averages 92.8 mph.
His fastball is important to him as it is one of his two primary pitches. Smyly throws either his fastball or curveball over 90 percent of the time.
Smyly’s success largely revolves around his ability to play both of his primary pitches off of each other.
With both pitches, he can keep hitters off-balance because of the way they differ from each other.
His fastball averages about 13 more mph than his curveball. So throwing either pitch after the other creates a change of pace.
He also likes to elevate his fastball, whereas a large percentage of his curveballs finds the lowest parts of the strike zone.
So by throwing either pitch after the other, Smyly often changes the batter’s eye level.
One important detail to note is that, throughout his career, he has induced fly balls at a uniquely high rate.
Above all, Smyly uses his favorite pitch (the fastball), to achieve this high fly ball rate.
Smyly vs. Philadelphia Batters
Philly batters have seen 34 fastballs and curveballs from lefties this season. They have six hits against these pitches, amounting to a .176 BA, which ranks sixth-to-last.
In addition to struggling against the types of pitches that Smyly likes to throw the most, Philadelphia hitters are also struggling against the type of pitcher that Smyly is.
They have had 21 at-bats so far against fly ball pitchers and have mustered five hits, amounting to a .238 BA.
Considering these two factors together merits a strong distrust in Philly batters tonight as long as Smyly is on the mound.
Six different Philadelphia hitters have seen Smyly. But only one of them — Andrew McCutchen -- has managed a hit off of him.
Despite McCutchen’s strong history against Smyly, the fact that McCutchen has produced zero multi-hit games and one extra-base hit this season makes him unreliable today.
Other Philly batters have found no success against Smyly in tiny data samples.
Matt Moore
Moore shares Smyly’s lack of velocity, although Moore used to average significantly higher velocity in his favorite pitch.
Like Smyly, Moore’s favorite pitch is his fastball, although Moore is much more reliant on it and so evinces less variety in his arsenal.
The main way in which Moore distinguishes himself from Smyly is in terms of control. Moore often struggles to find the strike zone.
These struggles are evident in the 10.80 walk-per-nine-innings rate that he produced in his opening start.
Overall, Moore is a backend starter who, unlike his Atlanta counterpart, is struggling for form.
Moore’s tough season debut — in which he lasted only 3.1 innings because opposing hitters figured him out after seeing him one time — came off of the heels of a poor conclusion to his Spring Training.
This building streak of poor starts is important to consider because it justifies added concern about Moore. One bad start would not be worth pausing over.
But, back from pitching in Japan, Moore is struggling repeatedly to establish his footing in the MLB.
Moore vs. Brave Batters
Bad control is a characteristic in a pitcher that Atlanta’s lineup is well-built to exploit.
Based on percentage of pitches outside the zone swung at, Atlanta owns the sixth-best plate discipline.
Albeit in a low data sample, Brave batters have found more success against Moore than Philly batters have against Smyly.
But one Brave batter who has never seen Moore and should thrive today is Ronald Acuna Jr, a righty who is hitting .406 so far.
He contributes to his team’s overall positive form. Atlanta has won four in a row and scored 5+ runs in three of those four games.
The Verdict
Given his positive form, the greater variety in his arsenal, and his stronger control, Smyly is individually the more reliable starter tonight.
Atlanta’s lineup, particularly with its strong plate discipline and good form, will secure Smyly a lead.
With the edge in starting pitching, count on the Braves to lead through five innings.
Best Bet: Braves First-Five RL (Odds TBA)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Sunday, April 11, at 7:08 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Truist Park in Cumberland, Georgia
Drew Smyly
Atlanta starter Drew Smyly finished Spring Training on a strong note, allowing zero earned runs in a combined total of 9.2 innings against Tampa Bay and then Boston.
He then continued his positive form in the regular season opener where he allowed two earned runs in six innings against Washington.
One strong feature of his pitching has been his control. This is an aspect where he distinguishes himself from his Philadelphia counterpart.
Since his positive streak began against Tampa Bay, Smyly walked a grand total of two batters.
Characteristically, Smyly is the type of pitcher who rather needs to have good control in order to succeed on the mound.
He has never been known for his velocity. This season, his fastball averages 92.8 mph.
His fastball is important to him as it is one of his two primary pitches. Smyly throws either his fastball or curveball over 90 percent of the time.
Smyly’s success largely revolves around his ability to play both of his primary pitches off of each other.
With both pitches, he can keep hitters off-balance because of the way they differ from each other.
His fastball averages about 13 more mph than his curveball. So throwing either pitch after the other creates a change of pace.
He also likes to elevate his fastball, whereas a large percentage of his curveballs finds the lowest parts of the strike zone.
So by throwing either pitch after the other, Smyly often changes the batter’s eye level.
One important detail to note is that, throughout his career, he has induced fly balls at a uniquely high rate.
Above all, Smyly uses his favorite pitch (the fastball), to achieve this high fly ball rate.
Smyly vs. Philadelphia Batters
Philly batters have seen 34 fastballs and curveballs from lefties this season. They have six hits against these pitches, amounting to a .176 BA, which ranks sixth-to-last.
In addition to struggling against the types of pitches that Smyly likes to throw the most, Philadelphia hitters are also struggling against the type of pitcher that Smyly is.
They have had 21 at-bats so far against fly ball pitchers and have mustered five hits, amounting to a .238 BA.
Considering these two factors together merits a strong distrust in Philly batters tonight as long as Smyly is on the mound.
Six different Philadelphia hitters have seen Smyly. But only one of them — Andrew McCutchen -- has managed a hit off of him.
Despite McCutchen’s strong history against Smyly, the fact that McCutchen has produced zero multi-hit games and one extra-base hit this season makes him unreliable today.
Other Philly batters have found no success against Smyly in tiny data samples.
Matt Moore
Moore shares Smyly’s lack of velocity, although Moore used to average significantly higher velocity in his favorite pitch.
Like Smyly, Moore’s favorite pitch is his fastball, although Moore is much more reliant on it and so evinces less variety in his arsenal.
The main way in which Moore distinguishes himself from Smyly is in terms of control. Moore often struggles to find the strike zone.
These struggles are evident in the 10.80 walk-per-nine-innings rate that he produced in his opening start.
Overall, Moore is a backend starter who, unlike his Atlanta counterpart, is struggling for form.
Moore’s tough season debut — in which he lasted only 3.1 innings because opposing hitters figured him out after seeing him one time — came off of the heels of a poor conclusion to his Spring Training.
This building streak of poor starts is important to consider because it justifies added concern about Moore. One bad start would not be worth pausing over.
But, back from pitching in Japan, Moore is struggling repeatedly to establish his footing in the MLB.
Moore vs. Brave Batters
Bad control is a characteristic in a pitcher that Atlanta’s lineup is well-built to exploit.
Based on percentage of pitches outside the zone swung at, Atlanta owns the sixth-best plate discipline.
Albeit in a low data sample, Brave batters have found more success against Moore than Philly batters have against Smyly.
But one Brave batter who has never seen Moore and should thrive today is Ronald Acuna Jr, a righty who is hitting .406 so far.
He contributes to his team’s overall positive form. Atlanta has won four in a row and scored 5+ runs in three of those four games.
The Verdict
Given his positive form, the greater variety in his arsenal, and his stronger control, Smyly is individually the more reliable starter tonight.
Atlanta’s lineup, particularly with its strong plate discipline and good form, will secure Smyly a lead.
With the edge in starting pitching, count on the Braves to lead through five innings.
Best Bet: Braves First-Five RL (Odds TBA)
