Phillies/Rays - '08 World Series

[Yanks27Sox9]

I'll use this thread for all my world series plays, as i expect to have a play on each game. Now for game one...

PHI ML (-105) over TB for 3/4 unit
Hamels vs Kazmir

This is a play based mostly on the SP matchup. I'll get into it in a bit, but i love the Rays to win the series.
But game one gives the Phillies their best matchup, imo. Hamels has been brilliant, and is the best SP on either team. I won't get into all my criticisms of Kazmir again, but he's a 5 inning thrower/strikeout artist...nothing more...even though he finally did pitch a very good game in game five of the alcs, lasting a whole 6 innings.
But if the Phillies are patient at the plate, Kazmir will be 100+ pitches deep by the end of 5. And besides not lasting deep into games...Kazmir is not only erratic outside the zone, but erratic over the heart of the plate...and prone to giving up some bombs, after a walk or two.
Hamels, on the other hand, should be able to frustrate this young/energetic Rays team...because he changes speeds & locates so very well. But so long as he's got the change working, and can go 7+ innings, i do like the Phils in this spot...despite the short layoff.


Now for the series, and liking the Rays to win it...at least when Hamels isn't on the mound agaisnt Kazmir.

I can tell you now that i'll be on the Rays in game two and game three...and prolly even game four, though i know i'll prolly also like the over in that game as well. Then we'll see what happens game five and on...

To me the Rays are simply a better team than the Phils. Many reasons. They won more games...in a much tougher division and tougher league. The Rays dominated interleague play, where the Phills did the exact opposite.
They have a significant advantage in coaching/manager. Imho, they have the better offense...in that they're more complete, top to bottom.
Both teams have excellent speed on the basepaths...but the Rays (as a team) are slugging like none other in these playoffs.
The Rays are the better team defensively. Imo, the Rays have a much better starting rotation. And i also believe (overall) that the Rays have the better pen. As of now, i do give the Phils the advantage in the 8th/9th innings...but i'm talking their overall bullens. Remember, someone like Romero was an abject failure for both Anaheim and Boston in the AL. Anyways, that's unless Madden sticks with Price in the 9th. If he does...I'll take Wheeler, Howell, Balfour, then Price over whoever, Romero, Madden, and Lidge. May sound crazy...but other than Hamels, Price will turn out to be the best pitcher to play in this series...when everyone's careers are over and done with...but Price definitely has the best arm (right now) in this series, imho. Anyways, that's speculation...and at the moment, the one edge heading into the series is that i give the Phils are the 8th and 9th innings from their pen. Other than that, pretty much across the board, i give the edge to the Rays...and it's why, despite game one, i think they'll win the World Series in 6 games.

:tiphat:

 

[Fondybadger]

Good luck tomorrow, I know how much you like Kazmir

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

One last note on the ALCS...

I wasn't online to post it, but i had the bosox in game 7...as i fully expected the choke job to be completed. Historically, it actually had an 11 in 15 chance of happening. And i still believe the bosox would've pulled it out, had it not been for Madden using Price to get the last out in the 8th...and to close out the 9th.

It cannot be understated what a ballsy move that was by Madden. Sure, Price is the best arm he's got...but he's as much of a rookie as you can be, with something like 14 innings of major league experience under his belt. Bottom line...you'd never, ever see a more conventional manager like Torre have the tremendous balls to make that move.

Anyways, it's prolly been talked about around the forum already. But since i haven't been around, i wanted to comment on it as well. To me, it'll go down as one of the greatest managerial moves of all time...and just goes to show that Madden deserves to be the unanimous choice for AL manager of the year.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Good luck tomorrow, I know how much you like Kazmir

until he learns how to consistently locate, and pitch...he's just a waste of an incredible arm.

 

[B.A.R.]

Good analysis. GL tomorow night. Should be a fun series.

 

[Tito]

GL Yanks, I agree with you here. I will be on the Rays for the series, but waiting to see if the price gets knocked down a bit (altho since yest its gone from 146 to 148). I will put another unit on it if the Phils win tonight.


Also, agree on what a ballsy and smart play by Maddon to put Price in there. Shows what that kid has mentally - we know what kind of stuff he has, but that shows he could be great.

GL

 

[Blue_Chip]

like it

 

[tee*dub]

we see game 1 precisely the same.. Good sign..

LIke the Rays for the series but they are gonna face Hamels 3 times possibly.. Small play on Phils +125 because of that but may grab the Rays at the plus number tommorow after the Phils win tonight..:smiley_acbe:

GL on the series..:shake:

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Good analysis. GL tomorow night. Should be a fun series.

agree. should be a great, entertaining series. :shake:

GL Yanks, I agree with you here. I will be on the Rays for the series, but waiting to see if the price gets knocked down a bit (altho since yest its gone from 146 to 148). I will put another unit on it if the Phils win tonight.

Also, agree on what a ballsy and smart play by Maddon to put Price in there. Shows what that kid has mentally - we know what kind of stuff he has, but that shows he could be great.

GL

im interested in a series price now...especially after espn's been making so much of game one, due to the last five years. :shake:

like it

:cheers:

we see game 1 precisely the same.. Good sign..

LIke the Rays for the series but they are gonna face Hamels 3 times possibly.. Small play on Phils +125 because of that but may grab the Rays at the plus number tommorow after the Phils win tonight..:smiley_acbe:

GL on the series..:shake:

exactly, T. :shake:
think hamels will only throw twice though, this win and game five...which is also why i had the Rays winning in 6 games. Could be wrong though...about hamels, i mean...not the 6 games, lol.

tonight was a good start to the series. went almost exactly as planned...with the one exception being philly's complete ineptitude with RISP. honestly, it should've been more than a 3-2 win. (and add that fact to the many reasons i think TB wins the series.)

either way, i'll take it. a win's a win...and it's over to the Rays side for the next 2 to 3 games (for me)...and maybe a series play as well.


:tiphat:

and remember how poorly TB looked at the plate in game one agaisnt the bosox...then the #'s they threw up the next 3 games. against those other Philly SPs...myers, moyer, and blanton lol...runs are coming in bunches for the Rays, imho.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

fuck me...the Rays ML is already -150 for tomorrow. guess it'll be the RL for me.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

game two...

TB -1.5 RL (+140) over PHI for a 1/2 unit
Myers vs Shields

just putting something down on the game now. will prolly not play the ML at that price...but will prolly add some on the -1 RL.

don't see a new series price yet either.

 

[Smokedawg]

what do you think the new series price will be?

Around even money?

Phils a slight fav?

 

[BetCrimes1984]

blankets saying TBY is +130

 

[CapTwo]

like tampa tomorrow too, yanks. GL

prolly be the only game i play tampa this series, nice win tongiht also

 

[B.A.R.]

nice start

forgot to tell you when we talked I played tonight for fifty bucks...thx...

never touched series though...will just wait for situtaions

Hope youer right....I known all these Philly guys too long..they'll get too cocky wit a ring..lol

 

[Blue_Chip]

I think Tampa takes it tonight, but I hate that number. I guess I'm on the sidelines unless Philly can jump to a small early lead, and I can catch a good price on TB in live betting.

GL Yanks

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

like tampa tomorrow too, yanks. GL

prolly be the only game i play tampa this series, nice win tongiht also

ty, sir :shake:

nice start

forgot to tell you when we talked I played tonight for fifty bucks...thx...

never touched series though...will just wait for situtaions

Hope youer right....I known all these Philly guys too long..they'll get too cocky wit a ring..lol

lol...can't be worse than the bostonians.

yeah, i ended up laying off the series too. jsut not the value i'd want.

I think Tampa takes it tonight, but I hate that number. I guess I'm on the sidelines unless Philly can jump to a small early lead, and I can catch a good price on TB in live betting.

GL Yanks

hope u did the RL then, bro...at -1 you can eliminate most the chalk by risking a tie.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

well, couldn't be happier that way the series has played out so far. so on to game three...

TB ML (-108) over PHI for 1 unit
Garza vs Moyer

i always list the SPs, because i always make my plays with them listed. i bring that up partly due to saturday's forecast.
if it's a rainout, i'll still make a new play on TB/garza in game three...but i won't be happy. one, cuz i'll get a worse line in all liklihood...as i played this as soon as it was up tongiht. two...cuz a rainout would fuck this series up, and seriously benefit the phils.
if saturday's game doesn't happen...moyer will be skipped...if charlie has any common sense, that is. game 3 would then be garza vs blanton...and hamels would then be ok to pitch in game four, and possibly seven too. don't like that...as when hamels throws, i'll be on the phils side again. (and i like to do that the best when hamels is up against kazmir...for the previously stated opinions on the 5 inning lefty without much control.)

but, let's hope any bad weather doesn't cause any extra days/cancelled games.

as for the first two...
even though they've gone the way i've capped them, both teams have underperformed to date. maybe pressure...maybe the competition...maybe other factors. but regardless, one things for sure...if the phils don't start getting a hit every now & then with runners in scoring position...or even moving runners along with productive outs...it's gonna be the Rays in 5, instead of the 6 i said at first.

as for the umps...
they've hosed both sides so far, and i'm sure they'll continue to do so. but to date, they haven't blatantly cost anyone a game yet.
jsut a shame...in every sport...that the umps/refs are so poor, when the games mean the most. but it's always been that way, and i guess it always will.

anyhow, go Rays in game three. :tiphat:

 

[Throwback420]

:shake:

 

[Trueblue]

Hard for anyone to like Moyer here based on anything other then experience and a glimmer of hope that he gets a homer ump. Rays will be dialed in, no doubt. gonna nab a little on the Rays series win at -125 too. I have a feeling this is the last time it will be affordable. gl, bro.

 

[JumpOnBoard]

I don't know if Charlie would skip Moyer even if it's a rainout...he says he deserves a start.

 

[STEED]

moyer lmao

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Hard for anyone to like Moyer here based on anything other then experience and a glimmer of hope that he gets a homer ump. Rays will be dialed in, no doubt. gonna nab a little on the Rays series win at -125 too. I have a feeling this is the last time it will be affordable. gl, bro.

yeah, i hear ya. GL with the play(s). :shake:

I don't know if Charlie would skip Moyer even if it's a rainout...he says he deserves a start.

i'd say it's cuz he's not the smartest manager...but it won't matter. with a rainout, MLB is jsut gonna wipe out the off day, instead of handling it correctly, so there's no way hamels could start 2 more times. at best, either way, hamels would only be available out of the pen in a game seven.

moyer lmao

:36_11_6:



Again...let's go Rays! :tiphat:

 

[Smokedawg]

moyer lmao

Agreed...no reason to even waste anyones time by playing this one...rays in a laugher

:shake:

 

[Administrator]

hey, all :tiphat:

sorry i (yanks) haven't been around lately. just been dealing with other things. anyways, jumping online quickly to post a play for tonight.

haven't made any plays since game three. but have to give the Phils props...especially the 2 SPs i basically laughed at (moyer & blanton). was totally surprised Philly took both games 3 & 4, to take a 3-1 series lead...but again, props to the Fightin' Phils for coming thru big time in the clutch.

but now we're into this suspended game five...

TB ML (+148) for 1/2 unit
action

played this last night...but the line is basically the same now/today at dimes.

anyways, some brief reasons behind this...though i am (admittedly) staying small, as this is still an unprecidented situation.

- with these days off, momentum is lost/gone. who will now grab it is to be (completely) determined tonight.
- hamels is obviously out of the game w/ the first AB tonight. madden should leave balfour in for the bottom of the 6th...then it'll be david price. and i'm more than happy to take price over whoever (lidge included) the phils decide to go with in this shortened sprint to the finish...especially at these odds/this value.
- both longoria and pena got the proverbial world series monkeys off their backs (in the first 6.5 innings), and that was the main reason the Rays lineup hasn't been producing as expected.
- lastly, i'm not convinced that Philly won't have a negative response to the entire situation...the delay, it all being anti-clamatic, and so forth...where the rays (imo) will feel like they've received another life, in a way.

Anyhow, that's my take. And if the Rays win tonight, i'll definitely be on them again in game six. Bottom line...i now fully expect the series to go a full seven, and that we see Hamels one more time this year.
And as for what i'd do in a game seven, if we get there...honestly, i don't know yet. Initial reaction would actually be to back Hamels/Philly, to be honest...but if it indeed came to that, a game seven, it would be very hard to go against the Rays at that point. But i'm getting ahead of myself. We'll see how tonight and the rest of game five goes...

GL :shake:

 

[Administrator]

Congrats to the Phillies and the Philly fans. :cheers:


You guys deserved this series. :shake:

But dayum...2 things. First, Madden waited way too long to go to his best arm in Price...and that cost him/them the losing run. Second, i so wanted to see Lidge blow a game, Pujols-style...but Zobrist just hit an "at-him" ball, otherwise he would've done just that.
Oh well...it wasn't meant to be. Again, the Phils deserved this win.

 

[spanishshark]

CONGRATULATIONS PHILLIES

WAY TO GO !!!!!!!!!

:cheers::cheers::cheers::cheers:
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