Today's Plays Include a (+468) MLB Parlay
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
Friday, July 15, 2022 at 6:40 p.m. ET at loanDepot Park in Miami
Who Starts for Philadelphia?
Philadelphia starts Kyle Gibson tonight.
Gibson is in a bad spot because he is pitching in Miami where, historically, he has an abysmal track record.
In his career, he is 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA in two career starts in the Marlins' venue.
Gibson's Vulnerability
Most recently, Gibson has shown a tendency to give up a lot of runs.
He's yielded an FIP over 5.90 in three of his past four starts.
In those three starts, he yielded a combined total of 14 earned runs and six home runs.
Gibson is so vulnerable because his favorite pitches are problematic.
His favorite pitch is his sinker, which he easily throws most often.
As heat maps show, he often leaves this pitch in the middle parts of the strike zone.
This problem helps explain why opponents are hitting .291 and slugging .444 against Gibson's sinker.
Who Starts for Miami?
Miami starts the eminently reliable Sandy Alcantara.
Alcantara, in his last two starts, has shut out the Angels in eight innings and the Mets in seven.
His strong form reflects the superb season that he's enjoyed.
As part of this strong season, he's already victimized the Phillies.
They've mustered four runs in 14 innings against him so far.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies
Friday, July 15, 2022 at 8:40 p.m. ET at Coors Field in Denver
Who Starts for Pittsburgh?
Tonight, Pittsburgh starts Jose Quintana, by far its most profitable pitcher.
Pertinently to my Best Bet for this game,Pittsburgh has rewarded its backers especially when Quintana is an underdog.
So far, the Pirates are yielding +4.4. units in starts where Quintana is dogged.
Their success as underdogs in Quintana's starts have been most recent.
They've won the last two games in which Quintana was the underdog, which was when they were +170 against the Yankees and +155 in Milwaukee.
Quintana's Strong Form
Quintana's excellent form is contributing to these betting numbers.
He has yielded a sub-2.70 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in each of his last four games.
Crucially, he's thrived even against teams that, given his pitching arsenal and the fact that he's a lefty, match up excellently with him.
Who Starts for Colorado?
Colorado starts German Marquez tonight.
Marquez has been uniquely awful at home.
Opponents are batting .320 and slugging .591 against him in Coors Field.
At home, he's suffered even against teams that match up poorly with him.
Key Difference
The key difference between both Marquez and Quintana is their ability to locate pitches well.
Heat maps show these conspicuous differences.
Quintana can navigate the edges of the strike zone while Marquez frequently leaves his pitches in the middle parts of the plate.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
Friday, July 15, 2022 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego
Who Starts for Arizona?
Arizona starts Madison Bumgarner.
Bumgarner is in an awful spot because he is facing for the Padres for the third time in just over three weeks.
Moreover, he has built a long track record in San Diego, but this track record renders him fade-worthy.
In his career, he is 5-11 with a 4.70 ERA in 22 career starts in the Padres' venue.
Bumgarner vs. Padre Batters
Active Padre batters have cultivated a strong track record against Bumgarner.
They have proven that they should be trusted to hit him well.
For example, Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth, and Jorge Alfaro all slug over .500 in over 10 career at-bats against Bumgarner.
Who Starts for San Diego?
The Padres start Yu Darvish.
Darvish has an edge over Bumgarner because he is pitching at home.
He is supremely reliable at home where opponents are batting .158 and slugging .240 against him.
San Diego is also in a great spot because it is 3-0 when returning home directly after a road loss.
Best Bet: Parlay Marlins ML at -163; Pirates ML at +124; Padres ML at -175 at +468 odds with BetOnline
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
Friday, July 15, 2022 at 6:40 p.m. ET at loanDepot Park in Miami
Who Starts for Philadelphia?
Philadelphia starts Kyle Gibson tonight.
Gibson is in a bad spot because he is pitching in Miami where, historically, he has an abysmal track record.
In his career, he is 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA in two career starts in the Marlins' venue.
Gibson's Vulnerability
Most recently, Gibson has shown a tendency to give up a lot of runs.
He's yielded an FIP over 5.90 in three of his past four starts.
In those three starts, he yielded a combined total of 14 earned runs and six home runs.
Gibson is so vulnerable because his favorite pitches are problematic.
His favorite pitch is his sinker, which he easily throws most often.
As heat maps show, he often leaves this pitch in the middle parts of the strike zone.
This problem helps explain why opponents are hitting .291 and slugging .444 against Gibson's sinker.
Who Starts for Miami?
Miami starts the eminently reliable Sandy Alcantara.
Alcantara, in his last two starts, has shut out the Angels in eight innings and the Mets in seven.
His strong form reflects the superb season that he's enjoyed.
As part of this strong season, he's already victimized the Phillies.
They've mustered four runs in 14 innings against him so far.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies
Friday, July 15, 2022 at 8:40 p.m. ET at Coors Field in Denver
Who Starts for Pittsburgh?
Tonight, Pittsburgh starts Jose Quintana, by far its most profitable pitcher.
Pertinently to my Best Bet for this game,Pittsburgh has rewarded its backers especially when Quintana is an underdog.
So far, the Pirates are yielding +4.4. units in starts where Quintana is dogged.
Their success as underdogs in Quintana's starts have been most recent.
They've won the last two games in which Quintana was the underdog, which was when they were +170 against the Yankees and +155 in Milwaukee.
Quintana's Strong Form
Quintana's excellent form is contributing to these betting numbers.
He has yielded a sub-2.70 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in each of his last four games.
Crucially, he's thrived even against teams that, given his pitching arsenal and the fact that he's a lefty, match up excellently with him.
Who Starts for Colorado?
Colorado starts German Marquez tonight.
Marquez has been uniquely awful at home.
Opponents are batting .320 and slugging .591 against him in Coors Field.
At home, he's suffered even against teams that match up poorly with him.
Key Difference
The key difference between both Marquez and Quintana is their ability to locate pitches well.
Heat maps show these conspicuous differences.
Quintana can navigate the edges of the strike zone while Marquez frequently leaves his pitches in the middle parts of the plate.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
Friday, July 15, 2022 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego
Who Starts for Arizona?
Arizona starts Madison Bumgarner.
Bumgarner is in an awful spot because he is facing for the Padres for the third time in just over three weeks.
Moreover, he has built a long track record in San Diego, but this track record renders him fade-worthy.
In his career, he is 5-11 with a 4.70 ERA in 22 career starts in the Padres' venue.
Bumgarner vs. Padre Batters
Active Padre batters have cultivated a strong track record against Bumgarner.
They have proven that they should be trusted to hit him well.
For example, Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth, and Jorge Alfaro all slug over .500 in over 10 career at-bats against Bumgarner.
Who Starts for San Diego?
The Padres start Yu Darvish.
Darvish has an edge over Bumgarner because he is pitching at home.
He is supremely reliable at home where opponents are batting .158 and slugging .240 against him.
San Diego is also in a great spot because it is 3-0 when returning home directly after a road loss.
Best Bet: Parlay Marlins ML at -163; Pirates ML at +124; Padres ML at -175 at +468 odds with BetOnline
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