MLB Parlay for May 12: A Bet That Pays (+265)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Zack Wheeler
Philly starter Zack Wheeler is in a bad spot today.
He is coming off extra rest -- he last pitched on May 4 -- because he was placed on the COVID-19 injured list.
With six or more days of rest, his career ERA is at its worst.
Wheeler vs. Dodger Batters
Wheeler also looks bad to back tonight because he is pitching in Dodger Stadium.
In his career, Wheeler suffers a 6.00 ERA in three career starts here.
Plenty of Dodger hitters, though, have accrued strong numbers against Wheeler regardless of where he's faced them.
Six different ones slug well over .600 in at least five career at-bats against Wheeler.
Freddie Freeman, for example, is 21-for-48 (.438) with a .646 slugging rate when facing Wheeler.
Tyler Anderson vs. Philly Batters
Left-handed Dodger starter Tyler Anderson primarily throws a fastball, cutter, and changeup.
These three pitches make up just about 90 percent of his arsenal.
I dislike Anderson tonight because the Phillies rank second in slugging .504 against his pitches from lefties.
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
Luis Gil
Yankee starter Luis Gil has superb stuff.
His favorite pitch based on frequency is his fastball. Based on percentiles, this pitch boasts superb velocity and a uniquely high spin rate.
Gil complements this pitch with a slider, which is his other favorite pitch.
His slider generates whiffs at an even higher rate than his fastball does.
This slider keeps hitters off balance in two key ways.
One, it averages 11 fewer mph than his fastball, thus creating a strong velocity differential.
Two, he likes to change the batter's eye level with it. He'll throw a high fastball and then hit the batter with his slider low in the zone.
Gil vs. White Sox Batters
The main complaint about Gil is his command.
However, he is facing just the right team because the White Sox are tied for second-to-last at limiting the rate at which they switch at pitches located outside the strike zone.
Moreover, Gil matches up well against the White Sox because they struggle against his pitches.
They rank 27thin slugging against the fastball and slider from righties.
Dylan Cease
White Sox starter Dylan Cease is performing even better than his surface-level numbers suggest.
His 2.38 ERA masks a 1.98 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding).
It's not like Cease is relying on bad competition to make him look good.
For example, he allowed one hit over the course of seven innings against an Angel lineup that ranks third in runs per game.
While one may mention that Cease's performance came at home, the Angels are scoring many more runs away from home than in home games.
One thing that Cease is doing particularly well this year is limit the long ball. Relative to prior years, he has strongly reduced the rate at which he allows home runs.
Cease vs. Yankee Batters
I like Cease tonight because he has been dominant at home even against teams that match up well against him.
In three starts at home this year, he yielded a 1.36 FIP against the Rays, a 1.62 FIP against the Royals, and a 0.41 FIP against the Angels.
While the Yankees are hot right now, their bats have tended to be relatively cold in series openers on the road. The one exception came when they faced catastrophic Royal Kris Bubic who is 0-3 with a 12.83 ERA.
Best Bet: Parlay Phillies/Dodgers Over 8 at -105 & Yankees/White Sox Under 8 at -115 at +265 odds with BetOnline
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Zack Wheeler
Philly starter Zack Wheeler is in a bad spot today.
He is coming off extra rest -- he last pitched on May 4 -- because he was placed on the COVID-19 injured list.
With six or more days of rest, his career ERA is at its worst.
Wheeler vs. Dodger Batters
Wheeler also looks bad to back tonight because he is pitching in Dodger Stadium.
In his career, Wheeler suffers a 6.00 ERA in three career starts here.
Plenty of Dodger hitters, though, have accrued strong numbers against Wheeler regardless of where he's faced them.
Six different ones slug well over .600 in at least five career at-bats against Wheeler.
Freddie Freeman, for example, is 21-for-48 (.438) with a .646 slugging rate when facing Wheeler.
Tyler Anderson vs. Philly Batters
Left-handed Dodger starter Tyler Anderson primarily throws a fastball, cutter, and changeup.
These three pitches make up just about 90 percent of his arsenal.
I dislike Anderson tonight because the Phillies rank second in slugging .504 against his pitches from lefties.
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
Luis Gil
Yankee starter Luis Gil has superb stuff.
His favorite pitch based on frequency is his fastball. Based on percentiles, this pitch boasts superb velocity and a uniquely high spin rate.
Gil complements this pitch with a slider, which is his other favorite pitch.
His slider generates whiffs at an even higher rate than his fastball does.
This slider keeps hitters off balance in two key ways.
One, it averages 11 fewer mph than his fastball, thus creating a strong velocity differential.
Two, he likes to change the batter's eye level with it. He'll throw a high fastball and then hit the batter with his slider low in the zone.
Gil vs. White Sox Batters
The main complaint about Gil is his command.
However, he is facing just the right team because the White Sox are tied for second-to-last at limiting the rate at which they switch at pitches located outside the strike zone.
Moreover, Gil matches up well against the White Sox because they struggle against his pitches.
They rank 27thin slugging against the fastball and slider from righties.
Dylan Cease
White Sox starter Dylan Cease is performing even better than his surface-level numbers suggest.
His 2.38 ERA masks a 1.98 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding).
It's not like Cease is relying on bad competition to make him look good.
For example, he allowed one hit over the course of seven innings against an Angel lineup that ranks third in runs per game.
While one may mention that Cease's performance came at home, the Angels are scoring many more runs away from home than in home games.
One thing that Cease is doing particularly well this year is limit the long ball. Relative to prior years, he has strongly reduced the rate at which he allows home runs.
Cease vs. Yankee Batters
I like Cease tonight because he has been dominant at home even against teams that match up well against him.
In three starts at home this year, he yielded a 1.36 FIP against the Rays, a 1.62 FIP against the Royals, and a 0.41 FIP against the Angels.
While the Yankees are hot right now, their bats have tended to be relatively cold in series openers on the road. The one exception came when they faced catastrophic Royal Kris Bubic who is 0-3 with a 12.83 ERA.
Best Bet: Parlay Phillies/Dodgers Over 8 at -105 & Yankees/White Sox Under 8 at -115 at +265 odds with BetOnline
