Phillies/Braves & Mariners/Angels Parlay Preview Article

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MLB Parlay for Today at (+300) Features Aaron Nola and Shohei Ohtani

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Saturday, September 17, 2022 at 7:20 p.m. ET at Truist Park in Atlanta

Who Starts for Philadelphia?

Aaron Nola starts for Philadelphia tonight.

On the season, Nola has been an unprofitable pitcher for bettors to back.

But this fact is a product of a horrible stretch to start the season in which Philadelphia lost eight of the first nine games in which Nola started.

This tendency is purely a thing of the past.

Most recently, Philadelphia has won three of the last four games in which Nola started.

Aaron Nola's Form

Nola enters tonight's game in superb form, which helps give his team a great chance to win games in which he starts.

Specifically, he's allowed one run or zero runs in six of his past eight starts.

Moreover, he yielded an FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) under 2.80 in seven of those starts.

He's done an excellent job of avoiding walks and home runs.

Even if he has games where he doesn't strike out as many batters as usual, he's ably limited hard contact while inducing more soft contact.

Well-Tested Nola

Crucially, Nola's superb form has persisted even when facing teams that match up well against him.

For example, a month ago, he yielded an FIP below 2.80 in consecutive starts against the division rival Mets, who rank fifth in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.

Nola's three favorite pitches -- fastball, curveball, and sinker -- are his most dangerous ones.

Opponents hit .188 against his fastball, .213 against his curveball, and .178 against his sinker.

Who Starts for Atlanta?

Jake Odorizzi starts for the Braves today.

Unlike Nola, Odorizzi's form has been rather unconvincing lately.

In particular, he's struggled against stronger lineups, such as that of the Mets.

Most recently, Seattle scored four runs off him in 3.2 innings in its hitter-friendly ballpark.

Odorizzi vs. Philly Batters

Odorizzi favors his fastball, cutter, and split finger.

These three pitches combine for over 85 percent of his arsenal.

Philly hitters match up well against Odorizzi because they rank third in slugging .475 against his favorite pitches from righties.

Watch out, among others, for Jean Segura.

Segura is 7-for-14 with a .929 slugging rate in his career facing Odorizzi.

Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
Saturday, September 17, 2022 at 9:07 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium in Anaheim

Who Starts for Seattle?

George Kirby starts for the Mariners today.

Kirby enters this game in fantastic form, having allowed one run or zero runs in each of his last four starts.

Perhaps most impressively, he locked down Atlanta in his last start, in which he allowed zero earned runs in six innings.

His command of the strike zone has been excellent.

He hasn't allowed a home run since June 27.

Likewise, he hasn't walked two or more batters in a game all season, and he hasn't walked anyone in his last two games.

Kirby vs. Angel Batters

Kirby merits additional optimism today because he matches up well against Angel batters.

Primarily, he throws a fastball.

L.A. ranks 25thin slugging against this pitch from righties.

He does also present a very impressive mixture of additional pitches -- in total, he throws six different pitches.

Who Starts for the Angels?

Shohei Ohtani starts for Los Angeles today.

Despite repeatedly being dealt low totals, Ohtani is a strong "under" pitcher.

Pertinently to my favorite play for this game, the "under" is hitting in 63.6-percent of his starts.

Ohtani is reliably excellent, including in his most recent outings.

He allowed one earned run or zero runs in each of his last three starts despite facing Houston consecutive times.

His great form persists even against teams that match up well against him.

Best Bet: Parlay Phillies ML at -105 & Mariners/Angels under 7 at +105 at +300 with BetOnline
 
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