Star Pitching The Theme For Plays On Phillies & Giants
Philadelphia (52-48) at Detroit (30-65)
When: 7:10 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Phillies ML
Philadelphia's Aaron Nola (8-2, 3.77 ERA) suffered a rough start to the season that is still evident in his high ERA. But he's enjoying a strong July, yielding a 2.10 ERA so far. In five of his last six starts, he's yielded one run or fewer. He's been particularly successful on the road, where the Phillies yield +3.3 units in his starts.
Nola relies primarily on a fastball-curveball combo. Both pitches combine for 68 percent of his arsenal. The curveball is his most famous pitch with its strong and highly unusual movement. He's evidently confident in it because he gladly elevates it, which is rare in a curveball, and utilizes it in all parts of the count. It creates a change of pace relative to his fastball. Despite its variance in location and heavy movement, he commands it for a 39 percent strike rate. He also masks its delivery by keeping its vertical and horizontal release points similar to those of his sinker. For these reasons, it's his favorite whiff pitch and opponents bat .194 against it. Nola's fastball is also serviceable. He's adept at placing it along the borders and away from the middle of the plate. Opponents hit .238 against it.
He matches up well against Detroit's righty-heavy lineup. The Tigers' top two and three of top four leaders in BA are right-handed. Righties, though, bat only .229 against Nola. The Tigers yield -23.4 units against righties because their OPS (on-base plus slugging) is .118 lower against them than against lefties. Overall, Detroit is 2-8 since the All-Star Break and will try to win consecutive games for the first time since they played lowly Baltimore in May.
Detroit's Matt Boyd (6-8, 4.13 ERA) has suffered a significant drop-off in performance after May. In June, his ERA was 5.90. His July ERA is 6.38. He's yielded four or five runs in each of his last six starts. Because of his recent struggles, the Tigers are 1-7 in his last eight starts with the one win coming against the White Sox. Overall, he's Detroit's second-least profitable pitcher.
Boyd's main problem is that he's become more predictable this year. He derives less support from his secondary pitches. Instead, he leans on his fastball and slider with 86 percent frequency. Whereas in years past his slider was primarily a two-strike pitch, he's utilizing this pitch even in earlier parts of the count for lack of reliable alternatives. Because he's more predictable, opponents figure him out more easily. While he yields a 3.02 ERA in the first time through the batting order, that number jumps to 5.02 in the second time and 4.65 in the third.
I dislike Boyd also because, based on opposing BA, he's struggling about equally against both left-handed and right-handed batters. Watch out for Bryce Harper, who's batting .360 with five doubles and a homer in his past seven days.
Chicago Cubs (54-46) at San Francisco (51-50)
When: 9:45 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Giants ML
San Francisco's Madison Bumgarner (5-7, 3.65 ERA) has been performing like his customarily dominant self. In each of his last four outings, he surrendered two runs or fewer. The Giants have won in three of his last four starts and, overall, he's yielding +4 units at home, where his ERA is 3.18.
Bumgarner has been so effective mostly because of his command. He's walked two batters in his past three starts combined and keeps his pitches out of more hittable parts of the plate. Four of his six most frequent pitch locations are along the strike zone's borders. He relies especially on his fastball to generate a 66.7 first-strike percentage that gives him a greater chance to succeed.
He leans especially on his cutter and curveball. Since June 25, opponents hit .200 against the former and .143 against the latter. His cutter is tough to hit with its vertical dip and consistent placement down in the zone inside against lefties and away from righties. His curve is effective with its sweeping glove-side motion and occasional elevation.
With his arsenal, he's dominated Cub batters. In 82 at-bats, they bat .159 and slug .232 against him. Kris Bryant is 2-for-11 (.182) and Anthony Rizzo is 3-for-16 (.188) against him. Of the seven Cub batters who have faced him more than five times, only Jason Heyward is batting .200.
Yu Darvish (3-4, 4.46 ERA) is Chicago's second-least profitable pitcher, yielding -4.2 units. He's bombed especially at night, where the Cubs yield -6.1 units in his starts.
Darvish is not the pitcher that he once was. His biggest change is his inability to lean on his fastball. He throws it less often because it's less effective. It's lost some movement and opponents hit .313 against it. Lefties have done the most damage against Darvish. Based on percentage of pitch location, he doesn't work his pitches inside against lefties like he used to, which had elevated the perceived velocity of his pitches thrown to them. Lefties slug .498 against Darvish.
Although their numbers seem deflated because they play in a very pitcher-friendly ballpark, San Francisco boasts plenty of dangerous lefties. Brandon Belt, for example, has a hit in five of his last six games and slugs .434 against righties. Joe Panik is hitting .381 in his past seven days. With lefties like these, the Giants are yielding +13 units against right-handed pitching. Overall, they've won eight of their last nine games.
Philadelphia (52-48) at Detroit (30-65)
When: 7:10 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Phillies ML
Philadelphia's Aaron Nola (8-2, 3.77 ERA) suffered a rough start to the season that is still evident in his high ERA. But he's enjoying a strong July, yielding a 2.10 ERA so far. In five of his last six starts, he's yielded one run or fewer. He's been particularly successful on the road, where the Phillies yield +3.3 units in his starts.
Nola relies primarily on a fastball-curveball combo. Both pitches combine for 68 percent of his arsenal. The curveball is his most famous pitch with its strong and highly unusual movement. He's evidently confident in it because he gladly elevates it, which is rare in a curveball, and utilizes it in all parts of the count. It creates a change of pace relative to his fastball. Despite its variance in location and heavy movement, he commands it for a 39 percent strike rate. He also masks its delivery by keeping its vertical and horizontal release points similar to those of his sinker. For these reasons, it's his favorite whiff pitch and opponents bat .194 against it. Nola's fastball is also serviceable. He's adept at placing it along the borders and away from the middle of the plate. Opponents hit .238 against it.
He matches up well against Detroit's righty-heavy lineup. The Tigers' top two and three of top four leaders in BA are right-handed. Righties, though, bat only .229 against Nola. The Tigers yield -23.4 units against righties because their OPS (on-base plus slugging) is .118 lower against them than against lefties. Overall, Detroit is 2-8 since the All-Star Break and will try to win consecutive games for the first time since they played lowly Baltimore in May.
Detroit's Matt Boyd (6-8, 4.13 ERA) has suffered a significant drop-off in performance after May. In June, his ERA was 5.90. His July ERA is 6.38. He's yielded four or five runs in each of his last six starts. Because of his recent struggles, the Tigers are 1-7 in his last eight starts with the one win coming against the White Sox. Overall, he's Detroit's second-least profitable pitcher.
Boyd's main problem is that he's become more predictable this year. He derives less support from his secondary pitches. Instead, he leans on his fastball and slider with 86 percent frequency. Whereas in years past his slider was primarily a two-strike pitch, he's utilizing this pitch even in earlier parts of the count for lack of reliable alternatives. Because he's more predictable, opponents figure him out more easily. While he yields a 3.02 ERA in the first time through the batting order, that number jumps to 5.02 in the second time and 4.65 in the third.
I dislike Boyd also because, based on opposing BA, he's struggling about equally against both left-handed and right-handed batters. Watch out for Bryce Harper, who's batting .360 with five doubles and a homer in his past seven days.
Chicago Cubs (54-46) at San Francisco (51-50)
When: 9:45 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Giants ML
San Francisco's Madison Bumgarner (5-7, 3.65 ERA) has been performing like his customarily dominant self. In each of his last four outings, he surrendered two runs or fewer. The Giants have won in three of his last four starts and, overall, he's yielding +4 units at home, where his ERA is 3.18.
Bumgarner has been so effective mostly because of his command. He's walked two batters in his past three starts combined and keeps his pitches out of more hittable parts of the plate. Four of his six most frequent pitch locations are along the strike zone's borders. He relies especially on his fastball to generate a 66.7 first-strike percentage that gives him a greater chance to succeed.
He leans especially on his cutter and curveball. Since June 25, opponents hit .200 against the former and .143 against the latter. His cutter is tough to hit with its vertical dip and consistent placement down in the zone inside against lefties and away from righties. His curve is effective with its sweeping glove-side motion and occasional elevation.
With his arsenal, he's dominated Cub batters. In 82 at-bats, they bat .159 and slug .232 against him. Kris Bryant is 2-for-11 (.182) and Anthony Rizzo is 3-for-16 (.188) against him. Of the seven Cub batters who have faced him more than five times, only Jason Heyward is batting .200.
Yu Darvish (3-4, 4.46 ERA) is Chicago's second-least profitable pitcher, yielding -4.2 units. He's bombed especially at night, where the Cubs yield -6.1 units in his starts.
Darvish is not the pitcher that he once was. His biggest change is his inability to lean on his fastball. He throws it less often because it's less effective. It's lost some movement and opponents hit .313 against it. Lefties have done the most damage against Darvish. Based on percentage of pitch location, he doesn't work his pitches inside against lefties like he used to, which had elevated the perceived velocity of his pitches thrown to them. Lefties slug .498 against Darvish.
Although their numbers seem deflated because they play in a very pitcher-friendly ballpark, San Francisco boasts plenty of dangerous lefties. Brandon Belt, for example, has a hit in five of his last six games and slugs .434 against righties. Joe Panik is hitting .381 in his past seven days. With lefties like these, the Giants are yielding +13 units against right-handed pitching. Overall, they've won eight of their last nine games.
