Bet This MLB Parlay at (+214) on Monday
Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Monday, July 11, 2022 at 7:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Who Starts for Philadelphia?
Philadelphia starts Aaron Nola tonight.
On the season, Nola is Philadelphia's least profitable pitcher.
But this fact shouldn't cause any concern because it is a product of the first two months of the season.
Philadelphia lost eight of the first nine games in which Nola started.
While this initial flow of events affects Nola's current betting numbers, things have been looking much different for a long time now.
To be specific, Philly has won six of the last eight games in which Nola started.
High-quality victims during this most recent span of time include Atlanta, Milwaukee, and San Diego.
Nola's Strong Form
Nola's strong form contributes to Philadelphia's recent success in his starts.
He has yielded a sub-two FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in five of his last eight starts and a sub-three FIP in six of his past eight starts.
His enhanced ability to get batters out has enabled him to last at least seven innings in each of his last six starts.
Nola's stuff has been superb, which is why he has consistently been inducing batters to switch at pitches outside the strike zone at a high and higher rate.
Overall, he ranks in the 84thpercentile in chase rate.
In terms of achieving strike outs, his curveball is his best pitch by whiff percentage.
He typically keeps this pitch low in the strike zone, and it has a nice spin rate that keeps batters from tracking its location easily.
Perhaps more critically, he plays it very well off his fastball.
His fastball averages about 14 more mph than his curveball, and he likes to elevate it.
So, he uses this two-pitch combo to alter the batter's eye level and to use a high velocity differential to keep him off-balance.
Nola's Stuff vs. Cardinal Batters
Nola's fastball and curveball combine for 58.2 percent of his arsenal.
He also favors a sinker and changeup.
Nola achieves strong balance and variety in his arsenal, helping him stay unpredictable, by throwing these pitches between 15 and 32 percent of the time.
On top of enjoying supreme form, Nola faces an awfully cold lineup.
St. Louis has scored a combined total of nine runs in its past eight games.
Who Starts for St. Louis?
St. Louis starts Miles Mikolas tonight.
Mikolas is coming off a pair of poor starts in which he yielded an FIP over six.
While it's possibly a tad too early in the month to speak of him as having a bad July, July is historically in his career his second-worst month in terms of FIP.
Plus, Mikolas matches up poorly against the Phillies.
They rank eighth in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
Monday, July 11, 2022 at 9:45 p.m. ET at Oracle Park in San Francisco
Who Starts for Arizona?
Arizona starts Merrill Kelly tonight.
Kelly will seem maximally familiar to the Giants because they just saw him in his last start.
This season, Kelly has already tried and failed to succeed twice in consecutive starts against the same team.
On June 8, he dominated the Reds but then collected the loss after surrendering five earned runs to them on June 13.
Kelly vs. Giant Batters
Tonight's game presents a particularly negative outlook for Kelly because of he is historically awful in San Francisco's Oracle Park.
He is 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA in four career starts here.
Among other Giant batters, look out for Wilmer Flores and Darin Ruf.
Both are 3-for-7 in their career against Kelly. Flores also has a double and a homer.
Who Starts for San Francisco?
San Francisco starts Alex Cobb tonight.
While Cobb just faced Diamondbacks, he suffered a tough-luck outing against them.
In this start, he yielded a 6.00 ERA and high opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite doing a superb job of limiting hard contact.
His 2.60 FIP In that start reflects how well he actually performed.
Cobb's Outlook Tonight
Tonight, Cobb looks especially promising because of his form.
He has yielded a sub-three FIP in each of his last three starts and in five of his last six starts, succeeding even against teams that match up well with him.
Best Bet: Parlay Phillies ML at -111 & Giants ML at -154 at +214 odds with BetOnline
Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Monday, July 11, 2022 at 7:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Who Starts for Philadelphia?
Philadelphia starts Aaron Nola tonight.
On the season, Nola is Philadelphia's least profitable pitcher.
But this fact shouldn't cause any concern because it is a product of the first two months of the season.
Philadelphia lost eight of the first nine games in which Nola started.
While this initial flow of events affects Nola's current betting numbers, things have been looking much different for a long time now.
To be specific, Philly has won six of the last eight games in which Nola started.
High-quality victims during this most recent span of time include Atlanta, Milwaukee, and San Diego.
Nola's Strong Form
Nola's strong form contributes to Philadelphia's recent success in his starts.
He has yielded a sub-two FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in five of his last eight starts and a sub-three FIP in six of his past eight starts.
His enhanced ability to get batters out has enabled him to last at least seven innings in each of his last six starts.
Nola's stuff has been superb, which is why he has consistently been inducing batters to switch at pitches outside the strike zone at a high and higher rate.
Overall, he ranks in the 84thpercentile in chase rate.
In terms of achieving strike outs, his curveball is his best pitch by whiff percentage.
He typically keeps this pitch low in the strike zone, and it has a nice spin rate that keeps batters from tracking its location easily.
Perhaps more critically, he plays it very well off his fastball.
His fastball averages about 14 more mph than his curveball, and he likes to elevate it.
So, he uses this two-pitch combo to alter the batter's eye level and to use a high velocity differential to keep him off-balance.
Nola's Stuff vs. Cardinal Batters
Nola's fastball and curveball combine for 58.2 percent of his arsenal.
He also favors a sinker and changeup.
Nola achieves strong balance and variety in his arsenal, helping him stay unpredictable, by throwing these pitches between 15 and 32 percent of the time.
On top of enjoying supreme form, Nola faces an awfully cold lineup.
St. Louis has scored a combined total of nine runs in its past eight games.
Who Starts for St. Louis?
St. Louis starts Miles Mikolas tonight.
Mikolas is coming off a pair of poor starts in which he yielded an FIP over six.
While it's possibly a tad too early in the month to speak of him as having a bad July, July is historically in his career his second-worst month in terms of FIP.
Plus, Mikolas matches up poorly against the Phillies.
They rank eighth in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
Monday, July 11, 2022 at 9:45 p.m. ET at Oracle Park in San Francisco
Who Starts for Arizona?
Arizona starts Merrill Kelly tonight.
Kelly will seem maximally familiar to the Giants because they just saw him in his last start.
This season, Kelly has already tried and failed to succeed twice in consecutive starts against the same team.
On June 8, he dominated the Reds but then collected the loss after surrendering five earned runs to them on June 13.
Kelly vs. Giant Batters
Tonight's game presents a particularly negative outlook for Kelly because of he is historically awful in San Francisco's Oracle Park.
He is 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA in four career starts here.
Among other Giant batters, look out for Wilmer Flores and Darin Ruf.
Both are 3-for-7 in their career against Kelly. Flores also has a double and a homer.
Who Starts for San Francisco?
San Francisco starts Alex Cobb tonight.
While Cobb just faced Diamondbacks, he suffered a tough-luck outing against them.
In this start, he yielded a 6.00 ERA and high opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite doing a superb job of limiting hard contact.
His 2.60 FIP In that start reflects how well he actually performed.
Cobb's Outlook Tonight
Tonight, Cobb looks especially promising because of his form.
He has yielded a sub-three FIP in each of his last three starts and in five of his last six starts, succeeding even against teams that match up well with him.
Best Bet: Parlay Phillies ML at -111 & Giants ML at -154 at +214 odds with BetOnline
