Today's Plays Include a (+261) NBA Playoffs Parlay
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat
Tuesday, May 10, 2022 at 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at FTX Arena in Miami
Odds Change
In Games 1 and 2 of this series, both of which took place in Miami, the Heat were favored by 4.5 and nine points, respectively.
After Philadelphia dominated Game 3 and closed out Game 4 at home, the Heat are currently favored by significantly fewer points in Game 5 in Miami.
One question to figure out is the following: is Miami being favored by fewer points because perennial MVP candidate Joel Embiid has returned (somewhat miraculously, it seems) or because the 76ers appear to have turned the tide in the series?
In Games 3 and 4, the 76ers were favored by one and 2.5 points, respectively, after Miami opened as 4.5-point favorites in Game 1 and nine-point favorites in Game 2.
The giant shift in the odds from Game 1 and 2 has less to do with an overreaction to Miami's Game 1 victory and more to do with the massive movement in Miami's favor that took place after the Heat opened as 4.5 points favorites in Game 1.
For Miami to go from being a nine-point favorite in Game 2 to a one-point underdog in Game 3 is significant.
Now, the shifts in odds in Games 3 and 4 come undoubtedly to a significant extent from the change in location. But how much, exactly, is Philadelphia's home court worth? Answering this question will help us assess the value that oddsmakers are according Embiid.
What makes this analysis easier for us is the fact that Embiid played in every game in his team's initial series against Toronto.
In that series, Philadelphia's home court was worth approximately six points.
The fact that Miami is favored by three right now after being a two-point underdog is about right.
But it is only right because of the strong shift in the odds that already took place between Games 2 and 3, which Embiid's Game 3 return contributed to.
Stated differently, Miami is favored by six points fewer than it was in its last home game.
My argument is this: Miami isn't favored by enough points because Embiid's return doesn't have a significant enough effect in Philadelphia's favor and because home court is decisively important.
Shot Quality
In order to explain why Embiid's return isn't significant enough, let's look at some deeper Game 4 statistics.
Field goal percentage and other surface-level stats ultimately mean nothing.
For example, a defender can play really well, but his strong performance could be concealed by unfavorable variance in the form of a high opposing conversion rate off contested shot attempts.
In Game 4, Miami was putrid from deep: the Heat converted seven of 35 three-point attempts.
This could be due to Embiid's defensive impact. Perhaps his rim protection enabled 76er guards to defend Heat shooters more closely behind the arc -- is this what happened?
No, this is not what happened. Actually, the Heat procured 14 wide-open three-point attempts and 20 open three-point attempts.
Embiid's return is insignificant because he is not able to prevent Heat players from getting good looks from deep.
The Heat failed to cover the spread in Game 4 because they were not taking advantage of propitious opportunities. They converted only three wide-open three-point attempts and three open ones.
They had success, for example, with dribble handoffs involving Embiid's man.
But Kyle Lowry played with a hurt hamstring and struggled. I hope for Miami's sake that he sits Game 5.
Heat role players struggled as well, as one rather expects role players to do in road games.
However, this team earned the highest three-point conversion rate during the regular season and, despite these recent outlier off nights, the Heat still rank number one in three-point percentage.
Returning home for essentially a must-win game, Miami will step up from behind the arc. Three-point shooting is a big part of Miami's game.
Meanwhile, the 76ers will regress. They made a ridiculous number of late shot-clock shots and they did so at an absurdly high conversion rate.
These upticks in late shot-clock productivity and efficiency will not repeat themselves tonight because they formed a massive outlier.
Embiid's return, then, creates free points for Miami bettors.
His value is overrated because he doesn't stop the Heat from getting great looks and he doesn't even stop Bam Adebayo or Jimmy Butler from amassing solid scoring outputs inside the arc.
Defensive Notes
Plus, on offense, Embiid hasn't been as productive. He can't score as many points because he can't possibly be recovered already from his orbital fracture.
James Harden would also struggle more on offense if Lowry were to sit because Harden is characteristically bothered by length and Lowry's backups bring more height on defense.
Total Verdict
I like the "over" because the Heat will excel from behind the arc. This will prove media skeptics wrong: people are jumping off the Miami ship and this is wrong to do.
I also think that Duncan Robinson will get some minutes. The Heat have been struggling with their shooting efficiency and three-point shooting is Robinson's bread and butter.
The team's overall shooting woes aside, Lowry is hurt and struggling. He has been extremely inefficient as a shooter.
The Heat could really use a 40-percent career three-point shooter. But Robinson will also give up points because he is a weak defender, which is why he's remained on the bench.
Robinson's involvement thus means more scoring on both ends on top of his teammates' improved efficiency.
Best Bet: Parlay Heat -3.5 at -112 & Over 209.5 at -110 at +261 odds with BetOnline
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat
Tuesday, May 10, 2022 at 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at FTX Arena in Miami
Odds Change
In Games 1 and 2 of this series, both of which took place in Miami, the Heat were favored by 4.5 and nine points, respectively.
After Philadelphia dominated Game 3 and closed out Game 4 at home, the Heat are currently favored by significantly fewer points in Game 5 in Miami.
One question to figure out is the following: is Miami being favored by fewer points because perennial MVP candidate Joel Embiid has returned (somewhat miraculously, it seems) or because the 76ers appear to have turned the tide in the series?
In Games 3 and 4, the 76ers were favored by one and 2.5 points, respectively, after Miami opened as 4.5-point favorites in Game 1 and nine-point favorites in Game 2.
The giant shift in the odds from Game 1 and 2 has less to do with an overreaction to Miami's Game 1 victory and more to do with the massive movement in Miami's favor that took place after the Heat opened as 4.5 points favorites in Game 1.
For Miami to go from being a nine-point favorite in Game 2 to a one-point underdog in Game 3 is significant.
Now, the shifts in odds in Games 3 and 4 come undoubtedly to a significant extent from the change in location. But how much, exactly, is Philadelphia's home court worth? Answering this question will help us assess the value that oddsmakers are according Embiid.
What makes this analysis easier for us is the fact that Embiid played in every game in his team's initial series against Toronto.
In that series, Philadelphia's home court was worth approximately six points.
The fact that Miami is favored by three right now after being a two-point underdog is about right.
But it is only right because of the strong shift in the odds that already took place between Games 2 and 3, which Embiid's Game 3 return contributed to.
Stated differently, Miami is favored by six points fewer than it was in its last home game.
My argument is this: Miami isn't favored by enough points because Embiid's return doesn't have a significant enough effect in Philadelphia's favor and because home court is decisively important.
Shot Quality
In order to explain why Embiid's return isn't significant enough, let's look at some deeper Game 4 statistics.
Field goal percentage and other surface-level stats ultimately mean nothing.
For example, a defender can play really well, but his strong performance could be concealed by unfavorable variance in the form of a high opposing conversion rate off contested shot attempts.
In Game 4, Miami was putrid from deep: the Heat converted seven of 35 three-point attempts.
This could be due to Embiid's defensive impact. Perhaps his rim protection enabled 76er guards to defend Heat shooters more closely behind the arc -- is this what happened?
No, this is not what happened. Actually, the Heat procured 14 wide-open three-point attempts and 20 open three-point attempts.
Embiid's return is insignificant because he is not able to prevent Heat players from getting good looks from deep.
The Heat failed to cover the spread in Game 4 because they were not taking advantage of propitious opportunities. They converted only three wide-open three-point attempts and three open ones.
They had success, for example, with dribble handoffs involving Embiid's man.
But Kyle Lowry played with a hurt hamstring and struggled. I hope for Miami's sake that he sits Game 5.
Heat role players struggled as well, as one rather expects role players to do in road games.
However, this team earned the highest three-point conversion rate during the regular season and, despite these recent outlier off nights, the Heat still rank number one in three-point percentage.
Returning home for essentially a must-win game, Miami will step up from behind the arc. Three-point shooting is a big part of Miami's game.
Meanwhile, the 76ers will regress. They made a ridiculous number of late shot-clock shots and they did so at an absurdly high conversion rate.
These upticks in late shot-clock productivity and efficiency will not repeat themselves tonight because they formed a massive outlier.
Embiid's return, then, creates free points for Miami bettors.
His value is overrated because he doesn't stop the Heat from getting great looks and he doesn't even stop Bam Adebayo or Jimmy Butler from amassing solid scoring outputs inside the arc.
Defensive Notes
Plus, on offense, Embiid hasn't been as productive. He can't score as many points because he can't possibly be recovered already from his orbital fracture.
James Harden would also struggle more on offense if Lowry were to sit because Harden is characteristically bothered by length and Lowry's backups bring more height on defense.
Total Verdict
I like the "over" because the Heat will excel from behind the arc. This will prove media skeptics wrong: people are jumping off the Miami ship and this is wrong to do.
I also think that Duncan Robinson will get some minutes. The Heat have been struggling with their shooting efficiency and three-point shooting is Robinson's bread and butter.
The team's overall shooting woes aside, Lowry is hurt and struggling. He has been extremely inefficient as a shooter.
The Heat could really use a 40-percent career three-point shooter. But Robinson will also give up points because he is a weak defender, which is why he's remained on the bench.
Robinson's involvement thus means more scoring on both ends on top of his teammates' improved efficiency.
Best Bet: Parlay Heat -3.5 at -112 & Over 209.5 at -110 at +261 odds with BetOnline
