Top NBA Playoffs Parlay Picks for May 4
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat
Wednesday, May 4, 2022 at 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at FTX Arena in Miami
Odds
According to the current NBA Odds, Philadelphia will need to improve by seven points relative to its Game 1 output in order to cover the spread.
Game 1's 106-92 score-line brought 198 total points. Ten more points in Game 2 get us the "over."
With this being said, the question is what we should expect to transpire differently in Game 2 and if these expected differences suffice to generate different betting results than the Heat cover and "under" that we saw in Game 1.
Why Philadelphia Lost Game 1: Missed Shots
It might seem hard to believe because Philadelphia lost by 14, but shot quality metrics are asserting that, based on shot quality, the 76ers should have won Game 1, that, based on shot quality, one would have expected them to take the opening game of the series.
The fact that 76er players were getting good shots is extremely promising.
Moreover, Philadelphia's top three-point shooters -- Tobias Harris, Danny Green, Tyrese Maxey, and Georges Niang, based on regular season stats -- were able to get the shots that they wanted and this fact is also extremely promising.
Another piece of evidence indicating that the shots were there for the 76ers but that they simply failed to take advantage of great opportunities is the following: Philadelphia was 1-for-12 on wide open three-point attempts.
This kind of inefficiency is impossible to credit Miami's defense with because these were uncontested three-point attempts taken by Philadelphia's top shooters that were just not falling.
One may say that the 76ers aren't a good shooting team.
Losing Seth Curry via trade certainly the 76ers in this respect.
But Niang and Maxey still converted over 40 percent from deep in the regular season.
Three-point shooting has always been Green's calling card and Harris has been a regularly solid stretch guy since his days in Detroit.
James Harden
The overreactions to James Harden's performance in Game 1 are insane.
People are suggesting that he can't beat defenders off the dribble.
Harden was no doubt uninspiring in Game 1. And I don't have an answer as to why he settled for step-back three-point attempts when guarded by Miami's worst perimeter defenders (Max Strus and Tyler Herro).
However, we just saw him help the 76ers trounce the Raptors with his 22-point, 15-assist effort in Game 6.
Video footage shows the extent to which he still has a nice burst and, of course, a good handle and nifty combination of moves to get past defenders in his characteristic iso game.
Better shooting from teammates -- Niang, for example, will surely not go 0-for-7 from deep again -- will help open up driving lanes for the likes of Harden plus Maxey inside.
DeAndre Jordan and Small Ball
As +/- stats show, a big reason why the 76ers lost Game 1 was the play of DeAndre Jordan.
He logged his first minute -- and then some -- since April and it showed.
Jordan was caught guarding apparently nobody in transition defense. He was letting Miami convert layup after layup opportunity.
On offense, his game was similarly unhelpful.
Again, the public demand to sit Jordan relies on very short-term memory because Jordan is a lot better than he was in Game 1.
His rebounding numbers during the regular season show someone who can be more effective on the glass, which is just what his size at 6-11, 265 pounds suggests he can be.
The Heat pulled away in the third quarter because of 76er missed shots and 76er rebounding deficiencies.
Starting with Philly's shooting progression and continuing with Jordan shaking off his rust, Philadelphia will correct both problems in Game 2.
This all being said, Philadelphia's numbers with its small-ball lineup were super promising in Game 1 and it is hard to imagine that, Doc Rivers' loyalty to Jordan aside, they don't give its smaller players a bigger leash.
Parlay Verdict
I expect Philadelphia to step up in major ways in Game 2.
Scoring-wise, the Heat also underperformed from deep in Game 1, albeit not to the same extent.
A higher 76er scoring output will push Jimmy Butler, who left a lot on the table offensively in Game 1.
All of this amounts to a higher-scoring, more competitive Game 2.
Best Bet: Parlay 76ers +8 at -110 & Under 207.5 at -105 at +273 odds with BetOnline
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat
Wednesday, May 4, 2022 at 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at FTX Arena in Miami
Odds
According to the current NBA Odds, Philadelphia will need to improve by seven points relative to its Game 1 output in order to cover the spread.
Game 1's 106-92 score-line brought 198 total points. Ten more points in Game 2 get us the "over."
With this being said, the question is what we should expect to transpire differently in Game 2 and if these expected differences suffice to generate different betting results than the Heat cover and "under" that we saw in Game 1.
Why Philadelphia Lost Game 1: Missed Shots
It might seem hard to believe because Philadelphia lost by 14, but shot quality metrics are asserting that, based on shot quality, the 76ers should have won Game 1, that, based on shot quality, one would have expected them to take the opening game of the series.
The fact that 76er players were getting good shots is extremely promising.
Moreover, Philadelphia's top three-point shooters -- Tobias Harris, Danny Green, Tyrese Maxey, and Georges Niang, based on regular season stats -- were able to get the shots that they wanted and this fact is also extremely promising.
Another piece of evidence indicating that the shots were there for the 76ers but that they simply failed to take advantage of great opportunities is the following: Philadelphia was 1-for-12 on wide open three-point attempts.
This kind of inefficiency is impossible to credit Miami's defense with because these were uncontested three-point attempts taken by Philadelphia's top shooters that were just not falling.
One may say that the 76ers aren't a good shooting team.
Losing Seth Curry via trade certainly the 76ers in this respect.
But Niang and Maxey still converted over 40 percent from deep in the regular season.
Three-point shooting has always been Green's calling card and Harris has been a regularly solid stretch guy since his days in Detroit.
James Harden
The overreactions to James Harden's performance in Game 1 are insane.
People are suggesting that he can't beat defenders off the dribble.
Harden was no doubt uninspiring in Game 1. And I don't have an answer as to why he settled for step-back three-point attempts when guarded by Miami's worst perimeter defenders (Max Strus and Tyler Herro).
However, we just saw him help the 76ers trounce the Raptors with his 22-point, 15-assist effort in Game 6.
Video footage shows the extent to which he still has a nice burst and, of course, a good handle and nifty combination of moves to get past defenders in his characteristic iso game.
Better shooting from teammates -- Niang, for example, will surely not go 0-for-7 from deep again -- will help open up driving lanes for the likes of Harden plus Maxey inside.
DeAndre Jordan and Small Ball
As +/- stats show, a big reason why the 76ers lost Game 1 was the play of DeAndre Jordan.
He logged his first minute -- and then some -- since April and it showed.
Jordan was caught guarding apparently nobody in transition defense. He was letting Miami convert layup after layup opportunity.
On offense, his game was similarly unhelpful.
Again, the public demand to sit Jordan relies on very short-term memory because Jordan is a lot better than he was in Game 1.
His rebounding numbers during the regular season show someone who can be more effective on the glass, which is just what his size at 6-11, 265 pounds suggests he can be.
The Heat pulled away in the third quarter because of 76er missed shots and 76er rebounding deficiencies.
Starting with Philly's shooting progression and continuing with Jordan shaking off his rust, Philadelphia will correct both problems in Game 2.
This all being said, Philadelphia's numbers with its small-ball lineup were super promising in Game 1 and it is hard to imagine that, Doc Rivers' loyalty to Jordan aside, they don't give its smaller players a bigger leash.
Parlay Verdict
I expect Philadelphia to step up in major ways in Game 2.
Scoring-wise, the Heat also underperformed from deep in Game 1, albeit not to the same extent.
A higher 76er scoring output will push Jimmy Butler, who left a lot on the table offensively in Game 1.
All of this amounts to a higher-scoring, more competitive Game 2.
Best Bet: Parlay 76ers +8 at -110 & Under 207.5 at -105 at +273 odds with BetOnline
