Boston to Show No Brotherly Love in Philadelphia on Wednesday
Philadelphia hosts Boston on Wednesday at 7 ET on ESPN. Philadelphia looks ill-prepared to halt Boston’s groove.
Boston at Philadelphia
MLB Pick: Red Sox
Boston’s Rick Porcello (14-5, 4.17 ERA) is primed to bounce back with a strong performance on Wednesday. He’s 4-0 in four starts when allowing multiple home runs in his previous start. Also, he’s allowed no more than two runs after his last five starts in which he conceded at least four runs. Porcello is a strong away bet in general, where he yields +3.7 units.
Porcello relies on five different pitches with between 12 and 30 percent frequency. But lately he’s been defying opponents’ scouting reports by cutting his sinker and slider usage and emphasizing instead his fastball and curve. In August, his fastball is enjoying a revival in arm-side movement. With a high spin rate that gives it rising action, he likes to keep his fastball elevated in the strike zone. He’s placing it in the highest row of the zone with 36% frequency and opponents have yet to touch it in that location in August. He dominated the Yanks in his first August start before falling back to Earth and making awful mistakes with location for a second consecutive time against Toronto. Porcello likes to surprise batters by starting off with a breaking pitch—his sinker maintains a key spot in this role and August opponents are batting .167 against his first-pitch sinker.
The Phillies show poor hitting form, scoring four runs in their last four games. Once the team’s BA leader, Odubel Herrera is batting .143 in his past seven days.
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Philadelphia’s Vincent Velasquez (8-9, 3.98 ERA) is averaging just over five innings in his past three starts, which is bad news for a team one of whose top relievers, Edubray Ramos, is injured, and the other, Seranthony Dominguez, is getting slammed in his last seven days. Velasquez, who is Philadelphia’s least profitable pitcher, has been worst at night, where he’s yielding -5.4 units.
Velasquez relies especially on his fastball, which he throws with 54 percent frequency. Besides that, he utilizes three breaking pitches with between 10 and 14 percent frequency. He features his fastball in all scenarios, especially against right-handed batters. Its velocity is strong, averaging 94 mph, although he threw harder in May. Velocity is important for Velasquez because he leaves his fastballs so often in the middle parts of the plate and velocity is one tool with which he can counteract poor location. His fastball is still his most effective pitch on the season. Opponents are batting .210 against it. Partly what makes it effective is that it shares similar vertical and horizontal release points with his curveball, so that both pitches look identical as they leave Velasquez’s hand and opponents don’t know whether to expect a heater or an 81 mph curveball. But opponents are hitting over .300 against his curveball, which he often leaves in the middle parts of the plate, for example with 6.19% frequency dead middle.
Boston easily ranks first in slugging against Velasquez’s pitches and yet, based on the metric xSLG-SLG, which compares what a team’s slugging rate is with what it should be based on quality of contact, the Red Sox are the second most underachieving team against them and so are due for statistical progression. Watch for J.D. Martinez, who is slugging an insane 1.071 in his past seven days ,and Mookie Betts, who is hitting .448 in his past seven days.
The Red Sox boast the fourth best bullpen in terms of FIP. It will secure them yet another win. They’ve won 14 of their last 16.
Philadelphia hosts Boston on Wednesday at 7 ET on ESPN. Philadelphia looks ill-prepared to halt Boston’s groove.
Boston at Philadelphia
MLB Pick: Red Sox
Boston’s Rick Porcello (14-5, 4.17 ERA) is primed to bounce back with a strong performance on Wednesday. He’s 4-0 in four starts when allowing multiple home runs in his previous start. Also, he’s allowed no more than two runs after his last five starts in which he conceded at least four runs. Porcello is a strong away bet in general, where he yields +3.7 units.
Porcello relies on five different pitches with between 12 and 30 percent frequency. But lately he’s been defying opponents’ scouting reports by cutting his sinker and slider usage and emphasizing instead his fastball and curve. In August, his fastball is enjoying a revival in arm-side movement. With a high spin rate that gives it rising action, he likes to keep his fastball elevated in the strike zone. He’s placing it in the highest row of the zone with 36% frequency and opponents have yet to touch it in that location in August. He dominated the Yanks in his first August start before falling back to Earth and making awful mistakes with location for a second consecutive time against Toronto. Porcello likes to surprise batters by starting off with a breaking pitch—his sinker maintains a key spot in this role and August opponents are batting .167 against his first-pitch sinker.
The Phillies show poor hitting form, scoring four runs in their last four games. Once the team’s BA leader, Odubel Herrera is batting .143 in his past seven days.
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Philadelphia’s Vincent Velasquez (8-9, 3.98 ERA) is averaging just over five innings in his past three starts, which is bad news for a team one of whose top relievers, Edubray Ramos, is injured, and the other, Seranthony Dominguez, is getting slammed in his last seven days. Velasquez, who is Philadelphia’s least profitable pitcher, has been worst at night, where he’s yielding -5.4 units.
Velasquez relies especially on his fastball, which he throws with 54 percent frequency. Besides that, he utilizes three breaking pitches with between 10 and 14 percent frequency. He features his fastball in all scenarios, especially against right-handed batters. Its velocity is strong, averaging 94 mph, although he threw harder in May. Velocity is important for Velasquez because he leaves his fastballs so often in the middle parts of the plate and velocity is one tool with which he can counteract poor location. His fastball is still his most effective pitch on the season. Opponents are batting .210 against it. Partly what makes it effective is that it shares similar vertical and horizontal release points with his curveball, so that both pitches look identical as they leave Velasquez’s hand and opponents don’t know whether to expect a heater or an 81 mph curveball. But opponents are hitting over .300 against his curveball, which he often leaves in the middle parts of the plate, for example with 6.19% frequency dead middle.
Boston easily ranks first in slugging against Velasquez’s pitches and yet, based on the metric xSLG-SLG, which compares what a team’s slugging rate is with what it should be based on quality of contact, the Red Sox are the second most underachieving team against them and so are due for statistical progression. Watch for J.D. Martinez, who is slugging an insane 1.071 in his past seven days ,and Mookie Betts, who is hitting .448 in his past seven days.
The Red Sox boast the fourth best bullpen in terms of FIP. It will secure them yet another win. They’ve won 14 of their last 16.
