Falcons vs Eagles: NFL Betting Picks And Predictions
Falcons vs Eagles
Sunday, August 15 2019 at 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Odds And Trends
Oddsmakers opened the total at 51 points and bettors have already bumped up the total to 52.5.
One misleading trend is that the "under" is 3-0 in the last three games between these teams. Those three games took place in Philadelphia.
Offensively, the Falcons are not the same outside of their home dome whether they play in Philadelphia or elsewhere. Last year, for example, they exceeded 30 points in five of eight home games. Conversely, they failed to exceed 20 points in five of eight road games.
One may still want to bet the "under" by magnifying the poor quality of play in Atlanta's week 1 opening loss in Minnesota. The Falcons mustered 12 points behind shoddy communication between offensive linemen, their lack of blocking awareness, and the unsharp play of quarterback Matt Ryan.
Overall, Ryan did nothing before his team fell behind 28-0. A telling play that shows how 'not himself' Ryan was is the avoidable-looking interception that he threw under pressure.
Part of why Ryan thrived last year is that he's yearly one of the sharpest quarterbacks under pressure. Last year, for example, PFF graded him as the third-best quarterback by passer rating when facing pressure. He finished fourth in passer rating behind an inept offensive line that also failed to help spark a ground game.
So, bad offensive line play is no reason to doubt Ryan, nor does it explain why he struggled in Week 1. Atlanta's new offensive coordinator doesn't explain anything, either, as a much younger Ryan played three seasons (2012-2014) under Dirk Koetter and averaged 67 percent completion, 4,600 yards and 29 touchdowns to 15 interceptions.
Instead, history supplies us with an answer. In Week 1 Ryan averages a 94.1 passer rating. In Week 2, his average passer rating skyrockets to 113.1.
Last year, for example, Ryan was awful in his season opener on the road before more than doubling his passer rating and leading Atlanta to 31 points in Week 2. In 2017, the Ryan-led Falcons produced 34 points in its Week 2 home opener. In 2016, they scored 35 points in Week 2. The list goes on.
Mental errors, not physical shortcomings, hampered Atlanta's offense in Week 1 and these are fixable, which is why teams generally see the most improvement typically from Week 1 to Week 2.
Exploiting Philadelphia's Defensive Weakness
Matt Ryan still boasts one of the league's most prolific wide receiver trios. Julio Jones led the NFL last year in yards, was third in receptions, and averaged 14.8 yards per catch. He's a viable threat both going deep and in the end zone.
Mohamed Sanu is an elite possession receiver based on his annually high-ranked catch rate. Calvin Ridley is an electric playmaker whose speed places him in the 87th percentile among receivers based on 40-time.
At home, these guys will light up an Eagle secondary that PFF ranked 21st coming into the season and that allowed Washington's Case Keenum to amass 380 passing yards last Sunday with three touchdowns to zero interceptions.
Philadelphia's Offense Strikes A Balance
No historical precedent exists for a Week 1-to-Week-2 turnaround in Atlanta's defense. The Falcons justify significant worry about their run- and pass defense.
Regarding the former, Atlanta could not set the edge last week as Viking running back Dalvin Cook had an easy time breaking containment and escaping past Falcon edge defenders. Cook finished with 111 yards on 5.3 YPC.
Concerning the latter, Kirk Cousins only had to throw 10 times. He was super efficient, but was able to ride Minnesota's run game, which amassed 172 yards on 4.5 YPC. Philadelphia is stacked at running back with veteran speedster Darren Sproles, who has the ninth-best burst score, Jordan Howard, and first-round pick Miles Sanders.
Howard is underrated. He averaged 5.2 YPC as a rookie and his yards after contact average has remained steady. But declining help from his offensive line caused his production to fall. Last week, he debuted for Philadelphia by averaging 7.3 YPC. Howard will be one Eagle running back to take the pressure off Philadelphia's pass attack.
Philly's pass attack is formidable with the return of DeSean Jackson to its wide receiving crew. Jackson is known as a deep threat because of his burst which grants him separation from opposing defensive backs. Last week, he smoked Pro Bowl cornerback Josh Norman for an average of 2.20 yards per separation and a 158.3 passer rating when targeted. Jackson accompanies Pro Bowlers Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz.
Best Bet: Over 52.5 at -104 odds with Pinnacle
Falcons vs Eagles
Sunday, August 15 2019 at 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Odds And Trends
Oddsmakers opened the total at 51 points and bettors have already bumped up the total to 52.5.
One misleading trend is that the "under" is 3-0 in the last three games between these teams. Those three games took place in Philadelphia.
Offensively, the Falcons are not the same outside of their home dome whether they play in Philadelphia or elsewhere. Last year, for example, they exceeded 30 points in five of eight home games. Conversely, they failed to exceed 20 points in five of eight road games.
One may still want to bet the "under" by magnifying the poor quality of play in Atlanta's week 1 opening loss in Minnesota. The Falcons mustered 12 points behind shoddy communication between offensive linemen, their lack of blocking awareness, and the unsharp play of quarterback Matt Ryan.
Overall, Ryan did nothing before his team fell behind 28-0. A telling play that shows how 'not himself' Ryan was is the avoidable-looking interception that he threw under pressure.
Part of why Ryan thrived last year is that he's yearly one of the sharpest quarterbacks under pressure. Last year, for example, PFF graded him as the third-best quarterback by passer rating when facing pressure. He finished fourth in passer rating behind an inept offensive line that also failed to help spark a ground game.
So, bad offensive line play is no reason to doubt Ryan, nor does it explain why he struggled in Week 1. Atlanta's new offensive coordinator doesn't explain anything, either, as a much younger Ryan played three seasons (2012-2014) under Dirk Koetter and averaged 67 percent completion, 4,600 yards and 29 touchdowns to 15 interceptions.
Instead, history supplies us with an answer. In Week 1 Ryan averages a 94.1 passer rating. In Week 2, his average passer rating skyrockets to 113.1.
Last year, for example, Ryan was awful in his season opener on the road before more than doubling his passer rating and leading Atlanta to 31 points in Week 2. In 2017, the Ryan-led Falcons produced 34 points in its Week 2 home opener. In 2016, they scored 35 points in Week 2. The list goes on.
Mental errors, not physical shortcomings, hampered Atlanta's offense in Week 1 and these are fixable, which is why teams generally see the most improvement typically from Week 1 to Week 2.
Exploiting Philadelphia's Defensive Weakness
Matt Ryan still boasts one of the league's most prolific wide receiver trios. Julio Jones led the NFL last year in yards, was third in receptions, and averaged 14.8 yards per catch. He's a viable threat both going deep and in the end zone.
Mohamed Sanu is an elite possession receiver based on his annually high-ranked catch rate. Calvin Ridley is an electric playmaker whose speed places him in the 87th percentile among receivers based on 40-time.
At home, these guys will light up an Eagle secondary that PFF ranked 21st coming into the season and that allowed Washington's Case Keenum to amass 380 passing yards last Sunday with three touchdowns to zero interceptions.
Philadelphia's Offense Strikes A Balance
No historical precedent exists for a Week 1-to-Week-2 turnaround in Atlanta's defense. The Falcons justify significant worry about their run- and pass defense.
Regarding the former, Atlanta could not set the edge last week as Viking running back Dalvin Cook had an easy time breaking containment and escaping past Falcon edge defenders. Cook finished with 111 yards on 5.3 YPC.
Concerning the latter, Kirk Cousins only had to throw 10 times. He was super efficient, but was able to ride Minnesota's run game, which amassed 172 yards on 4.5 YPC. Philadelphia is stacked at running back with veteran speedster Darren Sproles, who has the ninth-best burst score, Jordan Howard, and first-round pick Miles Sanders.
Howard is underrated. He averaged 5.2 YPC as a rookie and his yards after contact average has remained steady. But declining help from his offensive line caused his production to fall. Last week, he debuted for Philadelphia by averaging 7.3 YPC. Howard will be one Eagle running back to take the pressure off Philadelphia's pass attack.
Philly's pass attack is formidable with the return of DeSean Jackson to its wide receiving crew. Jackson is known as a deep threat because of his burst which grants him separation from opposing defensive backs. Last week, he smoked Pro Bowl cornerback Josh Norman for an average of 2.20 yards per separation and a 158.3 passer rating when targeted. Jackson accompanies Pro Bowlers Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz.
Best Bet: Over 52.5 at -104 odds with Pinnacle
