Philadelphia/Denver + LA Clippers/GS Totals

[BetCrimes1984]

I can't ignore...

The 3 refs having a combined 24-15 to Under mark for total lines 205 or higher this season.

Philly being 3-0-1 to Under at an avg of 182.0 pts at home off 3 days rest this season.

Philly having had 1 home total exceed 216 pts over this season & last (thats 74 games, and then it was vs a conference opponent).

These 2 teams averaging just 202.0 pts in their last 6 meetings they've had when their total line opened higher than 200.0 (with only 1 team total out of 12 in excess of 109 pts in that time)

Denver being 5-2 to Under at an avg of 206.2 pts when coming off 2 games that their team combined to total 240+ pts & where they totaled at least 110 pts in both, over this season and last.

small bet on Under 222.5 points

 

[TheSportsThing]

This is a great total to play to the Under. Agree 100%

 

[BetCrimes1984]

TST - maybe not great, but there's enough there plus line movement (218 -> 222.5) to say it's worth something.

 

[J.Dynomite]

..BOL BC :cheers:

 

[allsmiley]

den doesn't give a shit about dfense anymore.

 

[BigBankHank]

Good luck BC!

 

[EHS49]

i am NEVER betting an UNDER involving DENVER EVER AGAIN. that team plays shitty on D. after george karl lashed at them. denver and GSW should not make the playoffs.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Shit happens, and Denver's defense happens to be shit, lol. Not that this wasn't already known, but even by recent seasons standards, they're taking it to new levels (or is that depths).

 

[SportsNut]

I think they are dead set on proving they can simply outscore everyone. The only time defense is mentioned is on a possession to possession basis when it needs a big stop so to speak. The game vs Det yesterday reiterated my thoughts on this . The NBA is reinventing itself and its really going back to the old days where the games wgeer 120 -110 on a daily basis...:shake:

 

[BetCrimes1984]

I disagree about the NBA ever returning to what it was. Teams with a brain know such a philosophy (run n gun) is hopelessly vulnerable to teams who can play a functional defense, and such a defense can't be instituted on a game by game basis - it has to run to the core of a team's identity, otherwise you're fooling yourself (in other words, you can't decide to play run n gun for the duration of a reg. season, then "turn on" a defense for the playoffs).

Teams like DEN & PHX & GDS were loser franchises that couldnt cut it with the big boys, so have tried something different to get over the hump. They've improved as a result, but they're still not getting near a championship.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

LA Clippers/Golden State Total

Undeterred backing an Under with a no-defense team involved, I'm straight onto another.


Clippers

- are 6-0 to Under at an avg of 195.0 pts their last 6 home games vs divisional rivals.

- are 4-1 to Under at an avg of 199.0 pts at home vs divisional rivals who they do not share their homecourt with, this season.

- are 10-2 to Under at an avg of 188.0 pts their last 12 home games.

- are 7-0 to Under at an avg of 184.7 pts their last 7 home ATS losses.
LA is 3-11 ATS their last 14 games.


Golden State

- is 4-2 to Under at an avg of 211.3 pts as a Fav in B2B games, as opposed to 6-3-1 to Over at an avg of 219.6 pts as a Dog in B2B games, this season.

- mirroring the nature of their totals output last season, GDS has had it's total results come in waves (in 06-07 they had 3 Under "waves", and 3 Over "waves")...

6-1 to Over............ avg 225.5 pts
22-10 to Under....... avg 210.6 pts
19-3 to Over.......... avg 225.3 pts
3-1-1 to Under....... avg 220.8 pts (current streak)

...so right now GDS are visibly "in an Under wave". I see it like a sprinter - great bursts of speed followed by the need for a breather. When these 2 teams totaled 234 & 227 against each other earlier in the season, they were games that were part of GDS' intial Over wave.



GDS B2B against an opponent who surely holds no fear for them (hence no particular reason to lift themselves for a performance outside of the norm) while LA is fresh off a 5-road-game-in-8-days trip, playing for zero, nada, nil. The only other time LA has played a home game off a sizable road trip this season, they went Under vs an opponent who had 4 straight road Over results headed into that fixture.

small bet on Under 219.5 points

 

[SportsNut]

We are entitled to our opinions but we are of a generation that wants instant offense as fans which creates excitement . How did MLB pomote itself ? The HR . What did the NHL do when it was becoming to defensive minded and the Devils changed the game? They changed the rules to promote more offense. Now Pho wasnt terrible from what I recall and they had a new coach who implented a new system which was uptempo.I think because Skiles was there and management felt the talent was underacheiving but seriously not certain.


Which slowly has made its way to an acceptable style. Now Pho has challenged for Championships and if the NBA office had a brain they wouldnt have penalized PHO for Robert Horrys cheapshot. Your MVP gets cheap shoted and your not expect to respond? So I disagree with not being able to win at a high level. It takes time to be very good and look at the difference in Dallas and GSW under Don Nelson. How many years was Nelson around and while his teams where high scoring I would be suprised if his last 5 years didnt produce the best numbers. I feel the NBA has changed. We are seeing things that havent happened in years occurring on the scoreboard. We now have Den , Ind , Seattle , Memphis , Pho , GSW , Wash when it was full healthy , Orlando ( clearly at home) , Philly (looking to fastbreak ) , Det ( is more uptempo under Saunders) , Bulls , Bucks , Kings and even Utah at times...all regulary play a pace where scoring 110 + points is commonplace. Just a few years ago they were concerned with the amount of teams struggling to score 100 points. Even Adelman wanted Houston to play faster. The reason some teams havent adapted I feel is because why mess with a good thing till it doesnt work anymore. If it aint broke dont fix it . Your going to need failure before you think about change. Thats why the bad teams switch to it first because they have nothing to lose. Not because its a losing style....

I wasnt ciriticizing the play just feel going forward team profiles are going to have to be adjusted by us bettors:shake:

 

[BetCrimes1984]

We now have Den , Ind , Seattle , Memphis , Pho , GSW , Wash when it was full healthy , Orlando ( clearly at home) , Philly (looking to fastbreak ) , Det ( is more uptempo under Saunders) , Bulls , Bucks , Kings and even Utah at times...all regulary play a pace where scoring 110 + points is commonplace. Just a few years ago they were concerned with the amount of teams struggling to score 100 points

How many of those teams are winning, and how many are merely using this as a ploy to entertain while they suck (gotta attract the fans somehow). Boston was a loser team, but the moment they were equipped to win, did they abandon an attitude towards defense? Its not like Pierce, Allen (who did so at Seattle) or KG (whose Minny team abandoned defensive seriousness his last season, their biggest Over output for sometime) can't play a running game. How many of those present loser teams running round like headless chickens maintain that style when they're equipped personal wise to challenge for the bling bling? If you're in with a serious chance to win, you just don't adopt Denver's extreme style.

Utah & the Lakers are examples of teams playing an offensive style that hasn't abandoned a pretense to defense. If the NBA is going anywhere, it's towards their models imo, not towards Denver's one (aka, the old "no-defense" NBA). It's inevitable if the Utahs & Lakers are the centre of the model, then you're going to get a few teams (GDS, DEN, PHX) who form the extreme offensive edge of that model, just as you'll get teams who occupy the opposite (defensive) edge of that model. I agree the scoring will naturally rise, but my guess is 110-100 scorelines being the norm.

btw, I didn't take implied criticism, and I did preface my reply with my simply disagreeing.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

lost 1 by 6 pts, won 1 by 3 pts, such is life in the NBGay

 

[SportsNut]

I agree Bet . I really didnt mean to imply the NBA was going to be copycating the Nuggets. More like we are seeing a renaissance of that era. I agree that playing the way Denver does is not going to win you a championship. More of what I was trying to communicate was simply I think we are entering an offensive era with faster play ( and higher offensive outputs) . Which will phase out alot of "profiles" we both have used over the years for situational capping. I also agree that teams who play some sort of defense like Utah and LAL as you mentioned are the way to go . Like the 230 trend might become the 240 or 250 trend...

Like anything we have to look at it on an indivual basis and most of the tease teams are out West that are transforming. So Boston for that reason isnt the best example because its still in the EAST and KG is a real solid frontline player despite what may have happened last season .

Just trying to clarify and I hopped on that GSW UND at half and it was close for sure but good...:cheers:

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Congrats - we can thank, I think, Mr.Maggette for not caring at the stripe
:cheers: