Phil Steele's Magazine

[WISEGUY]

FYI , Phil Steele began shipping his magazine out to those who preordered yesterday. They should start to arrive beginning this Friday .

I mention this only to advise that lines may begin to move soon as Phil's mag starts to fall into the hands of the public. I have most of

my bets down already , but I'm counting on Phil to mess up on a few teams to get me to the right number on some matchups.


GLTA :shake2:

Wise

 

[Schrute]

Appreciate the info but....

Bill Connelly >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Phil Steele in terms of information and it's not even close

 

[Schrute]

I didn't say anything about the quality of information Steele provides , I mentioned that lines might move when the public gets a hold of his mag.

Since there is no value to the information that I post, I won't waste any more of the forums time then.

hahahaha, ok

Your initial post was helpful. I just try to provide information by directing folks to Bill Connelly because I find his information incredibly helpful

 

[gps_3]

I second Bill Connelly, but I'll still buy Steele's mag because it's easier and faster for me as a quick reference than Connelly's website

 

[Schrute]

I second Bill Connelly, but I'll still buy Steele's mag because it's easier and faster for me as a quick reference than Connelly's website

I buy it b/c I like to be able to access all of the teams schedules quickly by hand and see their recent ATS performances. Also there is no glare on the magazine outside

 

[Schrute]

I like Connelly because he provides information regarding career starts on the lines. He also ranks the DL using multiple metrics that makes it far easier to assess their strengths and weaknesses. Also he gives the stats for every single player who contributed last year in a much easier to read format.

I still buy Steele but it's amazing to me that he hasn't changed the presented information at all over the past 10-15 years. He made it and then he stopped working to improve. Major props to him for busting his ass to make his money though

 

[horses]

I generate my own data based on matchup analysis of probability of success vs their opponent on that particular week. I use a format similar to what Connelly uses but utilize much different data points to arrive at a conclusion as well as a probability.
As I mentioned in another thread , I'm a big fan of Connelly's work in performance analytics.
Lazy and novice cappers tend to look for shortcuts to find betting opportunities from the lower end of the spectrum such as Massey , Sagarin , or
other" Computer cappers " which are generally less than 50 % accurate vs the pointspread , or Phil Steele , whose so called power ratings are largely based on his opinion, to Connelly's writeups , which are loaded with data , albeit generic in nature. All provide a "projection " of MOV and some like Connelly ,Howell and Payne also provide a win probability percentage as well .


While this may be fine for some bettors,I do not find any of them to be accurate enough for me.They are however a great opportunity to
determine where the public is liable to " invest" their resources and how it might influence when and on which side might I might find betting
opportunities.
Once again , I am not comparing any of them , but stating that once the public has this information that they are likely to place wagers based on
the information they have available to them.

FWIW, I've been betting sports since 1983 , and over the years have gotten used to doing things a certain and precise way that I'm very
comfortable with . Since I'm getting older, and my favorite cocktail waitresses are starting to call me Grandpa , this will be my last season
in the trenches betting college football. Time to become a kama'aina , to go home to my Hawai'i nei .

There are many methods available to successfully handicap College football and achieve your desired goals , but I've found that if you
consistently apply the same metrics to each and every game you cap , and monitor your results carefully , you are far more likely to
improve your results over the long run.

Best of Luck to All this Season.

No matter who you are...or what you do...any and all power ratings are based on that particular handicappers opinion. As you mentioned, all you can do is be consistent in your methodology and look to improve it season over season.

 

[RetroVK]

scrute famous for getting bad numbers

 

[TheGarfather]

One thing about PS's mag, and I may be dead wrong and just imagining things, but I wonder if he hasn't loosened up his definition of what constitutes a starter. Seems like these days everyone has 15 or 16 starters coming back. I don't remember that being the case years ago. It seemed like there were always a lot with 10 or less.

 

[traderjoe13]

i find it intriguing that navy returns the least amount of experience on the oline of any other team. may be a good team to fade early on since im sure the oline importance is higher for a triple option team. thanks u for the links Wise!:shake:

Here's some info from Steele's mag that you might be interested in.

O Line career starts

https://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/2016/JUNE16/DBJune13.html

% of yards returning

https://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/2016/JUNE16/DBJune17.html



Hope this is useful.

GLTA

 

[RetroVK]

i find it intriguing that navy returns the least amount of experience on the oline of any other team. may be a good team to fade early on since im sure the oline importance is higher for a triple option team. thanks u for the links Wise!:shake:

At least they upgrade under center with the new QB .... oh wait .... nevermind

 

[Inspekdah]

What's this bill guys site? Google search is all over the board.

 

[Schrute]

What's this bill guys site? Google search is all over the board.

http://www.sbnation.com/authors/bill-connelly
Go through page by page to find all the teams

WiseGuy is right though...he's only about halfway through PAC 12 and still has Big10 and SEC to go which means my PRs are never ready for week 1 openers

 

[gps_3]

http://www.sbnation.com/authors/bill-connelly
Go through page by page to find all the teams

WiseGuy is right though...he's only about halfway through PAC 12 and still has Big10 and SEC to go which means my PRs are never ready for week 1 openers

I'm glad he finishes with SEC, as I feel most comfortable with that conference. I just did my first run-through on the B1G and Pac 12. Haven't gotten to the small conferences yet. Is it too early to start some "Name that Line" threads?

 

[Schrute]

Yeah really hard to get that logic...Webb is near perfect for what Cal will try to run too. He won't be Goff but he'll be a lot better than what they were going to try

 

[Schrute]

Also Steele twitter account does a fantastic job of tweeting attrition. Do not forget to mark out attrition in your magazine and account for it in your PRs if you do them. That is one thing I find the magazine incredibly helpful for

 

[TheGarfather]

Also Steele twitter account does a fantastic job of tweeting attrition.

It also does a fantastic job of retweeting every fucking possible mention of the magazine and showing pictures of stupid people, with their wives, girlfriends, children, and pets pretending to read and be interested in the magazine.

 

[Schrute]

It also does a fantastic job of retweeting every fucking possible mention of the magazine and showing pictures of stupid people, with their wives, girlfriends, children, and pets pretending to read and be interested in the magazine.

Sounds like someone's mad they didn't get a retweet

 

[TheGarfather]

Sounds like someone's mad they didn't get a retweet

I joked with some others that I was going to take a naked pic with my mag. I didn't...you're safe.

 

[HUNT]

Love both guys. But prefer Phil just because of the simple fact that it's awful hard to have analytics before week 1. Just doesn't make sense. Analytics are great by week 8. Jmo.

 

[Inspekdah]

I agree HUNT. And the navigation on Bill's site iMO is terrible. Certainly not the quickest way to see returning starters, how they faired last year Week 1/2, and get a brief rundown on a changing QB/HC ordeal. Which is why I love Steele for the early weeks.

 

[Inspekdah]

Correct me if I am wrong but if I want to access a specific team immediately I am probably better off bookmarking that deal, no?

Creating something like

PAC 12 - Utah
PAC 12 - Cal

BIG 12 - Texas

etc.?

 

[gijoe]

I buy it every year because of the players returning on each college team

 

[cubsker]

i buy it for the pictures.

 

[RetroVK]

Coming home from the store with a glossy, new Phil Steele is the closest I get to the feeling I had as a little kid on Christmas.

 

[twinkie13]

LSU is faved in every game this year

 

[B.A.R.]

Can't wait for that Nov 19th game against South Alabama.

 

[wiseplayer]

Coming home from the store with a glossy, new Phil Steele is the closest I get to the feeling I had as a little kid on Christmas.

Ditto. I take all my notes throughout the season in this book. This book becomes a great resource even during the NFL Draft.

 

[twinkie13]

How about that one at Lambeau?

You want to pick on SEC scheduling go ahead....go to 2011 LSU schedule if needed.

LSU got blasted for playing neutral site games in a state that they don't play in.
How about now?

 

[twinkie13]

I'm looking forward to Hawaii and UCF at AA....tough OOC schedule

 

[RetroVK]

Our university system probably doesn't deserve my money.