Phil Steele is Wrong About.....

[RJ Esq]

OK, tell everyone why Phil is wrong or not up to date about a team.....

I'll start.

Texas Longhorns

QB: Colt is the obvious starter. And Phil is right that the fans want more Chiles at QB. But Chiles is not the backup. Sherrod Harris will be the backup as he is almost as fast as Chiles and has a stronger, more accurate arm. However, Chiles is going to be on the field a whole lot more by all indications--and at the same time as Colt. Look for some 2 "QB" formations or Chiles lined up at slotback, WR, or tailback to take advantage of his speed.

RB: Clearly down from Charles. No clear cut starter, but look for Fozzy Whitaker and Vondrell McGee to split the snaps. Vondrell is more of the downhill runner while Fozzy has a more slashing style. Also look for some Antwan Cobb at FB. Numbers will be down from last year, but don't expect too much of a drop off as the RBs are now running behind a more experienced OL.

WR: Tons of young talent, a few proven veterans, but no proven home run threat like Limas. Would expect Quan to be the #1 receiver by year end with Shipley getting alot of balls thrown his way. Big question marks exist for the Fr, rFr, and So on the team. Fans are hoping for alot of DeSean Hales to come in and take over the Ramonce Taylor role from a few years again. Malcolm Williams and Dan Buckner may step up to be the future "#4" receiver this year. Antoine Hicks didn't qualify so scratch him. Would love to see Greg Davis actually use a TE, particularly PS#3 Blaine Irby, in the offense--but I'm not holding my breath.

OL: Phil's got this one right. Huge improvement last year due to high amount of injuries over the course of the season.

DL: Phil doesn't mention the scheme/focus shift on DL since Muschamp came in. The last 2 years, the defense has been greatly focused on stopping the run. This year, the focus will be on speed and pressuring the QB. The DT position is getting smaller but much faster as stud DE Lamarr Houston is moving inside and the only true DT starting will be Roy Miller. Texas is absolutely stacked at DE and is recruiting the position hard again. Look for a nice speed rush this year with some 5 man fronts moving LB Sergio Kindle up to the line as the 3rd "DE".

LB: Phil's conclusion: "The 3 starters have plenty of experience but this group has a little less experience depth-wise." Texas fans: "So the fuck what?" The starting 3 listed are Norton-Bobino-Muckelroy, probably because Kindle is coming off of surgery and there is a question whether he will be available for Game 1. Bobino started last year amongst a group of lackluster LBs. The stars of that corps were the second string in Norton at MLB and Muckelroy and Kindle at OLB. Kindle missed alot of time due to suspension and injury but has to impress this year as he will probably enter the draft early. In short, the current starters are better than last year's starters. The backups are infinitely more talented than last year's starters but, yes, they are less experienced. So the fuck what?

DB: Biggest question mark on the team IMO and definitely on D. Beasley and Palmer will be the starting undersized corners. Curtis Brown will also get plenty of time. The safeties will be led by Chykie Brown who was not a starter last year, but played in 13. Great athlete. Again, lots of great young talent as Fr and rFr. I expect improvement in the pass defense this year with a better DC and Akina focusing on the DBs. Pay particular attention to S Nolan Brewster and Christian Scott and Ben Wells. Also CBs DJ Monroe and Aaron Williams. Future looks good and I want to see these kids play early as the first 4 games are very manageable.

Starters:

Phil: 7 offense, 4 defense
Me: 7 offense, 7 defense (I'd list Roy Miller, Norton, and Muckelroy as starters)

Scheme changes:

Defense: Increased speed and pass rush, less focus on stopping run and containing passing. Look for more and better blitzing.

 

[RetroVK]

That post is the shit.

Those of us who follow that program closely knew the linebackers would be better this year than last. We said it all last year , so it isn't just seeing things through burnt orange sunglasses. To your point about miller , norton and muckelroy .. muckelroy had a lot of playing time , jsut one start but 67 tackles , dont have snaops stats handy. norton had just 1 start but 53 tackles , and miller had 40 tackles last year and started about half the games the year before. And just imagine what kindle can do if he can get on the damn field.

Addressing the phil steel is wrong about .......

i say he is wrong about a lot. What i mean is that if you go through his unit by unit analysis of each team , you will find a very very lopsided view of improvement. This was also the case in his mag last year. There have to be years where a majority of the teams get worse and not better.

Another thing , as long as we are venting about steele , on page 198 when discussing utep .... he bolded the following. ......

Last year i called for utep to have the most improved rush attack in the ncaa and they did going from 58 ypg rushing to 148

Was there a person alive and knew 2006 rush stats that didn't know that utep was going to improve by more ypg than any other school ??? they rushed for 58 ypg in 2006 !!!

That said ,,,, i love phil steele. i love his magazine. i love college football.

BTW my best buddy and i met nortons parents at the state fair last year at beer station ( food station for them hehe ). Nice folks. the ou fans standing nearby were not however.

 

[RetroVK]

rj , do you know if there are plans to redshirt dan buckner ??

If not , do we see him for jump balls in the redzone ?

 

[G-Man]

His opinions are built on other blogs from the colleges that he doesnt actually write.

He writes and predicts mainly from the forcasters or writeups of those colleges.

His info is then funneled to where he will make statements or put special attention on certain points.

As far as where he's right or wrong, I never study the book - as Ive said - its not a true capping tool after a week or two into the season anyway.

:shake:




__________________

 

[RJ Esq]

The point of the thread, guys, is that Steele can't be 100% completely accurate covering 119 DI-A schools, but overall he gets at least a B or B+ in his coverage.

So, give a post that either corrects a mistake or fills in additional information to take his report from a B to an A.

Thanks for the update, VK, on UTEP. I thought his analysis of UTEP was particularly weak. He thinks they should finish low in CUSA West but can't bring himself to follow his own numbers.

There are other pieces of info I remembered when I read. I'll post more when I go back and do my conference recaps.

 

[RJ Esq]

Re: Buckner, no idea. If I had to guess, Buckner and most of the true frosh will redshirt based upon past experience with Mack.

That being said, there are a few freshmen who could play this year and Mack has at least paid lip service to opening the lineup to anyone to compete. My best guesses for freshmen to play this year would be Buckner, Brewster, and Hales.

 

[cubsker]

I'll get some good info on the Huskers later tonight probably.

 

[texasfight]

Malcom Williams is the best bet to make a splash out of the young receivers. He's a legit 6'3" and is probably the fastest skill position guy the Horns have. Shipley and Cosby are great possession receivers, but don't have the top end speed to take a quick slant to the house, or get over the top of safety help. Williams does.

After that, Hales might see some time in the slot, but the dude's tiny. I'd rather have Chiles/Williams, Ship, and Cosby on the field as much as possible.

At running back, for the first time in McCoy's tenure, the Horns have a tremendous running style to compliment a traditional drop back passer. McGee is a five yards a pop fire hydrant of a running back. He's not the big play threat Charles was, but he's more apt at getting you 2nd and 7 on plays Charles would have gotten you 2nd and 10. Whitaker is a nice change of pace back that excels catching the ball out of the backfield. He's water bug quick but still powerful enough to run between the tackles.

TE's are a complete afterthought. Irby is the most complete, but his strength is still in the run game. Marshal is a converted WR that will remind of Finley, but is a huge liability in the run game. I don't expect anything out of this position. Too bad Finley had 3 kids.

The offensive line will be this offense's strength. It will be a much more cohesive unit than the 2007 version that had McCoy running for his life. They'll also benefit more from the scheme tweak that will take advantage of the QB and RB skills. Less zone give, and more counters and pulls to get McGee running downhill and take advantage playaction. The team will lean on this unit to possess the ball, and it's the major reason, along with a revamped defense that I think Texas will be a tremendous under team. Think Kansas.

QB will be an improvement because the offense will be more tailored to McCoy's skills. He's deadly accurate when he has time, see 2006, and he's the unquestioned leader of the team. Chiles can come in as a change of pace to run the zone read, and as mentioned by RJ, Harris is an athletic capable backup.

The wildcard to this offense is finding a homerun threat to take pressure off. They need Williams or another young receiver to become a deep weapon. They also need Chiles to see a ton of snaps to give defenses something to think about. Chiles can be an NFL receiver, he's Percy Harvin good. The problem is, he thinks/wants to be Vince Young.

If they don't find that explosive skill guy, defenses, especially ones with lockdown corners, can take Ship and Cosby out of the game and roll safeties up to smother what should be a rugged Texas running game. If Williams and Chiles can make an explosive impact, then Texas can be really good on this side of the ball.

I'll do the defense later.

 

[cubsker]

Huskers:

QB: Ganz, RS Frosh Witt, Juco Lee - Ganz has to prove he won't force throws. They're going to run some spread option with him b/c he can run. He was compared to Rich Gannon last year. Can make plays with his feet, not a huge arm but can make throws down the field. Probably can't throw the deep out but how many in college can? Witt slightly ahead of Lee for the #2 spot out of spring ball. Lee's a hell of an athlete but from what I've heard he's not the sharpest knife in the drawer. Who knows though?

RB - Steele has this one wrong. Obv, Marlon Lucky is the starter. He's probably the best receiving RB in the country. Most don't like how he runs between the tackles, but he's better than what people give him credit for. Watch the Texas game from last year. He ran really well. Needs more consistency in that area though. He's always had outstanding straight ahead speed and he breaks tackles in the open field on screens and swing passes. #2 is Roy Helu who Steele doesn't list in his top 3. He got more and more action last year as the season went along. He seems solid if not spectacular in all areas. Might be a better between the tackles guy than Lucky - we'll see. #3 is Quentin Castille. Big old back out of Texas is a real bruiser but he's got a fumbling problem which will hold him back. RS Frosh Mendoza is #4 who is a small blazer. Should be in the running for punt/kick returns. Steele is correct that running game should be a lot better. From what I heard, Callahan's running game was way too simplified and easily stopable by the better defenses. Puzzling b/c he's thought of as a top mind in the game on OLine play.

WR - Steele's wrong on this too from what I hear. The top 2 are Nate Swift and Todd Peterson, both seniors, both white. Swift is your typical possesion guy, but he's had some problems holding onto the ball the last couple of years. Needs to be much more consistent. Peterson's tall and a pretty good leaper. Better athlete than people will give him credit for, but stil...... Menelik Holt came on at the end of the year and was drawing comparisons to Mo Purify. Doesn't look like he's there yet from what I hear, but he should be the #3 guy. Backing these guys up are 2 young guys. Curenski Gilleylen is the top young guy. He's a RS frosh who can really run. Niles Paul is a true soph who was the top recruit in the state of Nebraska 2 years ago (Steele has him as PS#7) and played a bit last year on sp. teams and had a couple of catches. He's the nephew of Ahman Green and has all the potential in the world. Another guy to look for is a true frosh, Khiry Cooper who was a 4th or 5th round MLB draft pick by the Angels last month. He's in Lincoln so it looks like he's turning them down to play WR and CF on the baseball team.

TE - A HUGE question mark. Hunter Teafatiller in the top returnee, but he may not even be on the team. 3 DUIs will do that to you. I'd boot his ass if I were Pelini, but who knows? Mike McNeil is next, who was PS #29. He's a sophmore who's supposed to be an excellent athlete in the Matt Herian mode. However, he had just one catch last year which was early in the season for a huge gain if I recall. Then he disappeared. Tyson Hetzer was a JUCO recruit, but I think he's out with a knee injury. Ben Cotton, true frosh (PS# 17), is also in. He's the son of OL coach Barney Cotton, who's a former Husker and was formerly the Iowa St. offensive coordinator a couple of years ago.

OL - This should be a strength, but I said the same thing last year. Pass protecion was not a problem with only 18 sacks on almost 400 pass plays. Losing Carl Nicks at LT will hurt. Lydon Murtha is expected to take that spot. He's now a Sr. after being a huge recruit who's never quite lived up to his potential. That said, he is a solid if not spectacular player. At LG is Matt Slauson. He's a huge human being, but he's lost weight in the offseason which should help him. He already was 2nd team Big 12 last year. Hickman slides over to Center from RG. He has experience at this spot so I don't see this being a problem. RG is now Mike Huff who played a bunch last year. Should be steady, but again not phenominal. RT is our most talented player in Jaivorio Burkes. They pulled his RS last year right before the Texas game. He immediately started and immediately had an impact. I was watching him most of the game and he did extremely well for a true frosh playing his first game on the road. I look for big things out of him as he has a great body (that sounds Yag) at 6'5" 325.

Kicker - Two solid kickers. Adi Kunalic has a huge leg and I believe led the country in touchbacks which is pretty important with kickoffs now at the 30. He did seem to tire a bit at the end of the year but probably due to all the goofy scorefests we were involved in. Kunalic attempted and made his only FG try which was a 46 yarder in the first game that would have been good from 60. Alex Henery is the other kicker. He was a perfect 45/45 on PATs and 8/8 on FG with a long of 39. Very solid kicking game but it doesn't matter when you're giving up 50 I guess. Should play more of a role this year, I would bet.

Be back more with the D

 

[RetroVK]

TF or rj, you know who the horns are planning on redshirting ??

thanks in advance.

 

[RJ Esq]

More about how Phil Steele is wrong about Texas' D, mostly by not knowing for sure what Muschamp would do:

Muschamp Gets It

July 17th, 2008 by Scipio Tex
As we know, pleasing dilettante internet bloggers is the primary role of Texas football coaches and while we stare into the void of the July to mid-August dead period and we’re forced to do horrendous things like follow major league baseball, I thought it might be interesting to consider what we know about Will Muschamp so far.
My primary concerns with Will Muschamp coming into this job were these:
1. He is too young and inexperienced to manage up.
Young managers, particularly in a seniority based profession like coaching, struggle with this. You’ve got to manage your manager. Mack Brown, God bless him, is a control freak and a meddler. This will lead to all sorts of mischief in who Muschamp plays, what he plays, and his overall willingness to tell Duane Akina to shut the fuck up because if Duane knew what he was doing he wouldn’t need to be here so stick the<del datetime="2008-07-17T23:50:44+00:00"> co-coordinator </del>assistant head coach face-saving designation up your ass and go coach up Ben Wells on how to recognize a post-corner route. Maybe he shouldn’t say that exactly, but I’d like it.
2. SEC West Offenses and QBs are a farce.
He wouldn’t understand that the SEC - as strong a league as it is - is no preparation for the incredible creativity and high execution level of the Big 12 spread offenses he’ll see every week. Further, the Big 12 has a half dozen QBs that are ranked in the Top 15-20 at their position in college football. He’s not going to see John Parker Wilson, Seth Adams, Josh Riddell, Casey Dick and other assorted SEC QB debris week in and week out. Chase Daniel and Sam Bradford can actually throw spirals and such.
3. Tommy Tuberville and Nick Saban really were their own defensive coordinators.
Might be true. Doesn’t mean he didn’t learn a hell of a lot.
So far, there’s some strong evidence that points 1 and 2 are not huge concerns. Handwringer #3 will be revealed soon enough.
The evidence:
Duane Akina is a figurehead <del datetime="2008-07-17T23:52:08+00:00">co-coordinator</del> assistant head coach.
He may not know it, as some of his public comments have revealed that he is still blissfully unaware that last year’s defense had more athletic black men running balls through it than Kim Kardashian, but it’s pretty clear who our DC is. My guess is that Mack loves Akina as a man, a human being, and as a DB coach, but after his DC debacle and his terrible talent evaluations in DB recruiting for 3 years running from 2003-2005, he’s not a guy that Mack is terribly interested in hearing opine on matters outside of his core competencies. Such as they are.
Houston at starting DT.
This is a strong indicator that Muschamp gets it. The 6′5 345 pound DT is a thing of the past. Disrupting the spread offense is all about quick pressure in the passing game and backside pursuit in the running game. One neutralizer at the point of attack is sufficient (Roy Miller). I want my other guy shooting gaps and raising hell. See Maurice Gordon if you’d like to see what a disruptive force a quick, undersized DT can be. And Houston is several notches more talented than Maurice. My only fear is that Mad Dog convinces him that eating and bench pressing all summer will make him a better DT.
Aaron Lewis becomes a utility player.
Lewis is a good football player, he’s started a number of games, and he has been productive. In the old SWC, he’s an all-conference candidate. He’s a good team guy and under the traditional Mack paradigm he’d be a legacy starter until he graduates. See Jones, Tyrone. However, Mr Lewis is fighting for a spot in the two deep right now because we’re currently favoring faster DEs who can get quick pressure on the QB: Acho, Melton, Jones. He’ll get his snaps as a utility player - as a pass rusher inside, as a run stopper outside. That raised an eyebrow for me.
Freshmen starting at DB.
We’ll start two freshman safeties. That’s both encouraging and terrifying, depending on your viewpoint and although there’s a learning curve with these guys (UTEP and Arkansas will score on long play action passes, book it) the talent level is undeniable. Many Longhorn fans have advocated playing the kid with the upside who lacks experience over the limited veteran. Here’s a solid example of us doing so. We could have easily moved more veteran guys there and played it safely at safety.
The nickel base spring.
If Houston/Lewis/the young DBs provides the personnel evidence that Muschamp gets it, our nickel base spring tells me that he gets it schematically. The days of watching Chizik line up an OLB on a slot receiver are done. I thank all that is holy for that. Defending the spread is about matching speed and athleticism on the corners. If the other teams in the Big 12 want to play Paul Westhead fast break basketball on grass, reserve Dexter Pittman for situational play and get Damion James out on the court. Playing a base nickel also simplifies coverage schemes, gets you a lot of reps and a lot of looks in what you’ll be playing mostly anyway, and you can do more intuitive things for the young DBs - man under/zone deep etc.
In today’s Big 12, you play the run situationally: goal line, 3rd and 1, (or when you’re playing us, 2nd and 2). Your defense is structured to play the pass. It’s pretty clear to me that Muschamp gets that. There’s a contrarian play to be made here for the Baylors and Iowa States of the world, but that’s a post for another time.
Thoughts?

 

[SHSUHorn]

OK, tell everyone why Phil is wrong or not up to date about a team.....

I'll start.

Texas Longhorns

QB: Colt is the obvious starter. And Phil is right that the fans want more Chiles at QB. But Chiles is not the backup. Sherrod Harris will be the backup as he is almost as fast as Chiles and has a stronger, more accurate arm. However, Chiles is going to be on the field a whole lot more by all indications--and at the same time as Colt. Look for some 2 "QB" formations or Chiles lined up at slotback, WR, or tailback to take advantage of his speed.

RB: Clearly down from Charles. No clear cut starter, but look for Fozzy Whitaker and Vondrell McGee to split the snaps. Vondrell is more of the downhill runner while Fozzy has a more slashing style. Also look for some Antwan Cobb at FB. Numbers will be down from last year, but don't expect too much of a drop off as the RBs are now running behind a more experienced OL.

WR: Tons of young talent, a few proven veterans, but no proven home run threat like Limas. Would expect Quan to be the #1 receiver by year end with Shipley getting alot of balls thrown his way. Big question marks exist for the Fr, rFr, and So on the team. Fans are hoping for alot of DeSean Hales to come in and take over the Ramonce Taylor role from a few years again. Malcolm Williams and Dan Buckner may step up to be the future "#4" receiver this year. Antoine Hicks didn't qualify so scratch him. Would love to see Greg Davis actually use a TE, particularly PS#3 Blaine Irby, in the offense--but I'm not holding my breath.

OL: Phil's got this one right. Huge improvement last year due to high amount of injuries over the course of the season.

DL: Phil doesn't mention the scheme/focus shift on DL since Muschamp came in. The last 2 years, the defense has been greatly focused on stopping the run. This year, the focus will be on speed and pressuring the QB. The DT position is getting smaller but much faster as stud DE Lamarr Houston is moving inside and the only true DT starting will be Roy Miller. Texas is absolutely stacked at DE and is recruiting the position hard again. Look for a nice speed rush this year with some 5 man fronts moving LB Sergio Kindle up to the line as the 3rd "DE".

LB: Phil's conclusion: "The 3 starters have plenty of experience but this group has a little less experience depth-wise." Texas fans: "So the fuck what?" The starting 3 listed are Norton-Bobino-Muckelroy, probably because Kindle is coming off of surgery and there is a question whether he will be available for Game 1. Bobino started last year amongst a group of lackluster LBs. The stars of that corps were the second string in Norton at MLB and Muckelroy and Kindle at OLB. Kindle missed alot of time due to suspension and injury but has to impress this year as he will probably enter the draft early. In short, the current starters are better than last year's starters. The backups are infinitely more talented than last year's starters but, yes, they are less experienced. So the fuck what?

DB: Biggest question mark on the team IMO and definitely on D. Beasley and Palmer will be the starting undersized corners. Curtis Brown will also get plenty of time. The safeties will be led by Chykie Brown who was not a starter last year, but played in 13. Great athlete. Again, lots of great young talent as Fr and rFr. I expect improvement in the pass defense this year with a better DC and Akina focusing on the DBs. Pay particular attention to S Nolan Brewster and Christian Scott and Ben Wells. Also CBs DJ Monroe and Aaron Williams. Future looks good and I want to see these kids play early as the first 4 games are very manageable.

Starters:

Phil: 7 offense, 4 defense
Me: 7 offense, 7 defense (I'd list Roy Miller, Norton, and Muckelroy as starters)

Scheme changes:

Defense: Increased speed and pass rush, less focus on stopping run and containing passing. Look for more and better blitzing.

Good stuff. The only thing I would add would be in regards to the secondary. With so many offenses in the Big 12 now running the spread Muschamp is going to be using alot more 4-2-5 sets.

Past Texas defenses usually stayed in the 4-3 base focusing on stopping the run at all costs and they've been lit up for it by having three very unathletic LBs the last two years.

The state of Texas just isn't producing many HS quality LBs anymore and it may be because of the shift in Texas HS football on focusing on the pass and spread offenses.

Can you name the great LBs from the state of Texas this decade that went on to star in the NFL? Derrick Johnson is the only one I can think of. Hell he is the only Texas LB I believe that's been drafted.

Texas really needs to start thinking about recruiting in the SEC region for its LBs of the future.

In offseason workouts Texas has been running Muckelroy and Bobino at LB. The DB's will be Palmer and Beasley at CB, with Scott and Wells at S, and Earl Thomas manning the remaining spot in the back seven.

Chykie Brown is a backup corner and not going to be playing saftey as Steele mentioned. Curtis Brown's name also figure to be in the mix somewhere at corner this season.

Earl Thomas is the name you should keep your eye on here as according to reports on orangebloods.com his name this summer has arguably been one of the most talked about players on the entire team. He's been playing lights out.

Out of Texas entire starting back seven last year, 5 of the seniors weren't even drafted and not even going to NFL training camps as free agents. That's pretty sad and shows how much OU kicked Texas' ass in recruiting from the 03-05 classes.

On offense I'm not as excited as everyone else about our RB situation untill future HS kids Whaley and Seastrunk step on campus.

At WR the three WRs running first team right now are Shipley, Cosby, and Malcolm Williams. Williams looks like he may be the next Limas Sweed and he's going to have to do it pretty quick for this offense to be really special. Texas was hurt last year not being able to stretch the field when Sweed went down.

Bunkner is probably going to redshirt and Hales is probably the only frosh WR that will see the field.

This is more the reason Chiles should be switched to a Percy Harvin type role instead of QB. The kid can't throw for shit but should have the ball in his hands 12 times a game due to his playmaking abilty in the open field.

 

[RJ Esq]

Thanks, Horn. Saw Chizik's comments about running the 4-2-5 alot more and putting Kindle on the edge to pressure the QB.