Personal research and systems

TroyStacks

TroyStacks

18" Pythons
Love researching trends like this as they are always consistent year to year and will always help in capping the numbers do not lie. More will come as I research more. I'm sure you guys remember the +7 or better bowl season system I posted from last year WOW!

PLAY ON SEC small favorites ...over the past 5 years are 38-28 ATS 58% winners....3 SEC teams have losing records (Vand, Fl and Miss winning only 6-13 ;32% winners) take those 3 out and you have an impressive 36-15 ATS record 71% winners
*There were a couple ties but I count them as wins as you always buy the hook at -3 but doesn't skew system too much maybe 2 percent
***Small favs defined as -3 to pickem

PLAY ON Big 10 small favorites... have gone a combined 34-34 ATS past 5 years. Only teams with a winning record are Wisky, Purdue and Minnesota who went a combined 19-6 76% winners ATS
*Great stat IMO in terms of playing the dog ML as most losses were outright victories. Also we have 3 consistent teams who have traditionally won vs teams who have similiar talent levels.
***Small favs defined as -3 to pickem

SEC home dogs are a 39-52 ATS Last 5 years 42% winners ATS
*Will break it down by conference v. non soon

PLAY ON teams of small favs last 5 seasons:
Kansas 6-2
LSU 6-2
Auburn 6-1
UGA 6-3
Kentucky 4-0
Wisc 7-2
Purdue 6-2
Minnesota 6-2
VT 5-0
FSU 4-1
USF 5-2
TCU 4-0
Tulsa 6-2
S.Miss 5-2
Nev 7-1
WMU 6-2
Ball St 3-0
EMU 2-0

PLAY AGAINST team as small favs last 5 season:
Mia 2-4
Duke 0-3
NCST 2-7
MD 2-7
WF 0-3
Cal 0-3
Was 1-5
SDSU 2-5
AFA 3-6
Mem 1-4
ECU 1-4
MiaOh 1-4
Akron 1-4
ArkieSt 1-4

PLAY ON Arkansas,Auburn,UGA,SC,Tenn and Bama as -7 or better away from home versus SEC opponents. Teams listed have gone 29-3 ATS L5 season

Tennessee is 6-0 ATS as -7 or better favorite away but have gone 0-6 ATS @ home as a -7 or better favorite L 5 season versus SEC opponents

PLAY ON Florida,Vandy and MissSt as -7 favorite or better @ home versus SEC opponents going 9-1 ATS L 5 season
 
Last edited:
Nice work, Troy. Always good to see these kinds of things. I'm going to stick this one to my forehead. :shake:
 
Very interesting Stacks, especially when you remove the 3 teams who skew the results. nice work
 
Thanks Troy. Might have missed this in reading the post, but what defines a small fav here? -3 or less? -7 or less?

Thanks.
 
troy, do you consider these from a logic standpoint or do you just look for patterns? The reason I ask is that some of them seem to be coincidental, while others stand up to further analysis.

That Tennessee one is great. It demonstrates that they don't rate large road favorite status very often, but when they do its for good reason. While they just don't protect home turf very well (certainly not as well as you would expect for having 100K at every game).

The one below it seems weird because those teams just have nothing in common. Was MSU even a home favorite of that size in the last five years to a fellow SEC school? I am not seeing any.
 
Not sure the Tenn one is true, does somebody want to double check that one so that I don't make an ass out of myself. LOL
 
I checked back through 2000 and found Tennessee to be only 4-7 as 7+ favs on the road vs. SEC. Maybe I missed something.
 
nope tenn is 6-0 @ sec opponents as a fav of -7 or better just looked it up again....

MSU was a fav once or twice lost my sheet but those 3 only had one loss with florida going 4-1 I believe.

These are not patterns IMO they just happen to be what they are. I mean conf play is a funny thing. its no mistake some teams just beat the shit out of other schools on a regular basis or are deisel on the road or at home. thats what they do. So IMO I think these stats are very useful as I always use them. Def won't use these blindly but I assure in bowl season I will again hahaha.
 
Tennessee last seven games AT SEC opponents as a -7 or more favorite:

AT vanderbilt 2006 line -7 tennessee 39 vanderbilt 10 ( 1-0 ats) 1-0 SU

AT kentucky 2005 line -8 tennessee 27 kentucky 8 ( 2-0 ats ) 2-0 SU

AT mississippi 2004 line -10 tennessee 21 ole miss 17 (2-1 ats ) 3-0 SU

AT Vanderbilt 2004 line -12 tennessee 38 vanderbilt 33 (2-2 ats) 4-0 SU

AT kentucky 2003 line -11 tennessee 20 kentucky 7 (3-2 ats ) 5-0 SU

AT Arkansas 2001 line -13.5 tennessee 13 arkansas 3 (3-3 ATS) 6-0 SU

ATkentucky 2001 line - 19 tennessee 38 kentucky 35 ( 3 -4 ATS) 7-0 SU

Probably meant to say Straight up winner in original post not ATS winner.
 
vegas and to all your missing the stat as favs of -7 or better meaning from -1......-7 lol i see what you are thinking now
 
I see what you mean now Troy. By the way, it might be a better trend than you think. The last time Tennessee lost as a road favorite of 7 or less is way back in 1994. At Mississippi State 21-24 as a -6 fav. Manning's freshman year, 2 quarterbacks ahead of him were injured in the first 4 games of the year.
 
wow great side note....i'm going to re post all the stats in a more orderly fashion here soon so we can actually use thme as a capping tool
 
started to look at teams that will be good in the trenches both OL and DL. This is where games are won especially in close games and you might even be able to find a great spot for a dog to win SU. Stats compiled use exp.,returned starters and all teams listed must have all those parameters covered on both offense and defense.

Texas AM
Oklahoma
USC
LSU
tOSU
Wisky
Michigan
Rutgers
Illinois
Louisville
Miami
UCLA
UVA
FSU
GT
Iowa
Tex
PSU

A lot of these teams you might think will suck but team such as UVA who are under the radar ou need ot look at harder before going against them especially if you can find DD as a dog. OL/DL makes or breaks you its teh core of the team. ENjoy
 
LSU D-line should control the LOS each game.

Also, Les Miles said at SEC media days that Arnold is still not ready for two-a-days, so I am starting to wonder how durable he will be this season on LSU's O-line.
 
TroyStacks said:
Love researching trends like this as they are always consistent year to year and will always help in capping the numbers do not lie. More will come as I research more. I'm sure you guys remember the +7 or better bowl season system I posted from last year WOW!

PLAY ON SEC small favorites ...over the past 5 years are 38-28 ATS 58% winners....3 SEC teams have losing records (Vand, Fl and Miss winning only 6-13 ;32% winners) take those 3 out and you have an impressive 36-15 ATS record 71% winners
*There were a couple ties but I count them as wins as you always buy the hook at -3 but doesn't skew system too much maybe 2 percent
***Small favs defined as -3 to pickem

PLAY ON Big 10 small favorites... have gone a combined 34-34 ATS past 5 years. Only teams with a winning record are Wisky, Purdue and Minnesota who went a combined 19-6 76% winners ATS
*Great stat IMO in terms of playing the dog ML as most losses were outright victories. Also we have 3 consistent teams who have traditionally won vs teams who have similiar talent levels.
***Small favs defined as -3 to pickem

SEC home dogs are a 39-52 ATS Last 5 years 42% winners ATS
*Will break it down by conference v. non soon

PLAY ON teams of small favs last 5 seasons:
Kansas 6-2
LSU 6-2
Auburn 6-1
UGA 6-3
Kentucky 4-0
Wisc 7-2
Purdue 6-2
Minnesota 6-2
VT 5-0
FSU 4-1
USF 5-2
TCU 4-0
Tulsa 6-2
S.Miss 5-2
Nev 7-1
WMU 6-2
Ball St 3-0
EMU 2-0

PLAY AGAINST team as small favs last 5 season:
Mia 2-4
Duke 0-3
NCST 2-7
MD 2-7
WF 0-3
Cal 0-3
Was 1-5
SDSU 2-5
AFA 3-6
Mem 1-4
ECU 1-4
MiaOh 1-4
Akron 1-4
ArkieSt 1-4

PLAY ON Arkansas,Auburn,UGA,SC,Tenn and Bama as -7 or better away from home versus SEC opponents. Teams listed have gone 28-3 ATS L5 season

Tennessee is 6-0 ATS as -7 or better favorite away but have gone 0-6 ATS @ home as a -7 or better favorite L 5 season versus SEC opponents

PLAY ON Florida,Vandy and MissSt as -7 favorite or better @ home versus SEC opponents going 7-1 ATS L 5 season
Click to expand...


in red is your answer
 
haha anybowl team underdogs of +7 or more play ON....tweaked so that the first gaem usually is a fav like TCU v.N.Ill last year the rest i think overed damn near 93% i will bust it out i always dig deeper and deeper yet i still never take my own advice i.e boise+7 hahaha fuckin idiot i m touting my systems to you all and not listening to myself hahaha atleast for some of the time. damn OU looke like the play last season.
 
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