Pennzoil 400 Preview Article

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Pennzoil 400 Race Preview and Best Bet

NASCAR Cup Series: Pennzoil 400
Sunday, March 6, 2022 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in Las Vegas

Race Info

After a chaos-filled weekend, we move from slippery Fontana in California to Las Vegas for the Pennzoil 400.

For this racing event, drivers must complete a total of 267 laps.

As is usually the case, there are three stages for this race.

Stage 1 consists in the first 80 laps. Stage 2 requires 80 more laps. Stage 3 encompasses the final 107 laps, taking us from 160 to 267.

The entry list for this race has been posted. On the entry list, 36 teams/drivers have been named.

So, barring any unforeseen events, we know who will participate in this race.

As for the order in which drivers will start, the starting lineup will be established on Saturday.

Saturday morning will be busy as at 10:30 a.m. local Las Vegas practice starts.

Afterwards, from 11:05 a.m. - 12:30 p.m. Las Vegas time, is qualifying, upon which the starting lineup gets set.

Track Info

The Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a tri-oval with a surface made of asphalt.

Each lap is 1.5 miles long. So, in completing 267 laps, drivers will have accumulated 400.5 miles.

Banking at this track is decent on the turns. The turns are banked progressively from 12 to 20 degrees.

It is very unusual, though, to see straightaways banked as highly as the ones in Las Vegas. At this track, the straightaways are banked at nine to 12 degrees.

This banking helps increase the driving speeds because drivers will use banking to corral more momentum for their cars.

Drivers To Avoid

Avoid investing in William Byron who, at this track, often finishes well back of where he started and/or outside the top 20.

His average finishing position here is 20.00, which is 5.5 spots behind his average starting position.

In Bovada's head-to-head match up betting, Chase Elliott is represented more often as a candidate to invest in or fade.

At this sportsbook, one can invest in him to finish either behind or ahead of Denny Hamlin and likewise either behind or ahead of Kyle Larson.

I therefore think it worthwhile to talk about Elliott.

Historically, Elliott is very hit-or-miss at this track. He can occasionally do well, but he'll also suffer terrible performances.

This sort of inconsistency actually typifies what we've already seen from Elliott in general this season.

It's hard to know whether the good Elliott or the bad Elliott will show up on a given day.

Consequently, I think it's too risky to invest in this guy right now, so I recommend finding someone who offers a sounder basis for hope.

Driver I Like

In his brief career, it's been normal for Tyler Reddick to lay a few initial eggs before scoring a strong success.

That strong success was seemingly supposed to take place last week. Reddick had the fastest car all day until he cut his tire and crashed in what was a chaotic environment.

I think that the anticipated strong success will take place on this Sunday for Reddick.

Historically speaking, Reddick's initial races at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway were awful.

But, unlike Byron, Reddick has produced hope here. In his last race at Las Vegas, he started 13th but finished a highly respectable sixth.

After tasting but not finding success last week, a hungrier Reddick will build off of his improved racing at this track to score another success in Las Vegas.

Because I like Reddick but not Byron, I recommend investing in Reddick to finish ahead of the latter.

Best Bet: Reddick to finish ahead of Byron at -105 with Bovada
 
I am playing Reddick to win at +1550, as it will probably only go down after qualifying and practice.

Waiting until after qualifying and practice tomorrow before I bet anything else.
 
Played for the Xfinity race today:

These are just small 1/2 unit plays.
Moffitt -130 over Jeb Burton
Mayer -110 over Brandon Jones (Jones is in a backup car and will start at the rear, there are about 15 cars going to the rear)

I like Mayer and Berry today to run up front with Gragson and Allmendinger.
I cannot find a good matchup to play Berry.
Mayer has a higher risk of wrecking.
Gragson will probably win.
I don't know why I don't like Gibbs today.
 
Last edited:
Played for the Xfinity race today:

These are just small 1/2 unit plays.
Moffitt -130 over Jeb Burton
Mayer -110 over Brandon Jones (Jones is in a backup car and will start at the rear, there are about 15 cars going to the rear)

I like Mayer and Berry today to run up front with Gragson and Allmendinger.
I cannot find a good matchup to play Berry.
Mayer has a higher risk of wrecking.
Gragson will probably win.
I don't know why I don't like Gibbs today.
Ty Gibbs is going to the rear, just announced.
 
Cup practice notes:

At the top of the speed charts:
All 4 Hanedick cars
Blaney
Logano
Reddick
Bell

Surprises:
Hemrick (he ran good last week after going 6 laps down, ended up on the lead lap to finish 9th. Maybe my optimism for Kaulig Racing this year should have been on Hemrick and not Haley)
Eric Jones (he ran really well last week)
Harrison Burton

Disappointments:
Suarez (he ran really well last week, so hard to say what this means)
Keselowski
Austin Dillon (he is more consistent, which is better suited for this track, so this is not a real concern)
Harvick (he is more consistent, which is better suited for this track, so this is not a real concern)
Kyle Busch wrecked and will go to a backup car which is the Joe Gibbs team parts car. Horrible for his chances to do anything tomorrow, fade if possible.

Based on practice

Bet on:
Bell and Hemrick (both were fast and consistent)
Bet on but to a lesser degree Eric Jones (I doubt the odds will be very good based on where he finished last week) and Harrison Burton (a rookie so risky)
Reddick

Fade:
Kyle Busch (Everyone will be fading so the matchups may not be good)
Keselowski (he usually runs well here but a new car, new team, and disappointed so far)
Maybe Suarez if he has inflated odds based on last week.
 
Played for the Xfinity race today:

These are just small 1/2 unit plays.
Moffitt -130 over Jeb Burton
Mayer -110 over Brandon Jones (Jones is in a backup car and will start at the rear, there are about 15 cars going to the rear)

I like Mayer and Berry today to run up front with Gragson and Allmendinger.
I cannot find a good matchup to play Berry.
Mayer has a higher risk of wrecking.
Gragson will probably win.
I don't know why I don't like Gibbs today.
Added a small $20 bet on Berry to win the Xfinity race at +1050 (BAS has this and it should be closer to +600)
 
Qualifying for Cup race:

1. Bell (consistent too)
2. Larson (consistent too)
3. Cindric
4. Briscoe (he was fast at times last week, but not consistent)
Logano, Reddick, and Dillon were all in the Top 10 and ran consistently fast laps
14. Byron (the slowest Hendrick car)
15. Keselowski (better than he was in practice
16. Hemric (gonna be a good bet tomorrow)
31. Kurt Busch (he got loose, which is why he was so slow)
 
I played:

Large:
Hemric -130 over Haley
Briscoe+115 over Suarez (I see it is +100)

Medium:
Reddick -130 over Hamlin

$20 on Reddick to win $310
 
Last edited:
Agreed on Hemric. Already better than Haley.

I'm playing Blaney over Byron.
If you like Blaney over Byron and can bet at Draftkings, you can take Blaney +220 to win Group B over Byron, Kyle Busch, and Hamlin.

I personally don't think Truex has a chance to win based on his performance so far this year and I don't think Kyle has any chance either since he is starting from the back in a parts car and we know how much he needs practice.

So you are kinda, basically getting Blaney versus Byron at +220.
 
Last edited:
Also at Draftkings Reddick to win Group C is interesting, I just wish he was more than +150

The others in Group C are Harvick, Bowman, and Keselowski
 
If you like Blaney over Byron and can bet at Draftkings, you can take Blaney +220 to win Group B over Byron, Kyle Busch, and Hamlin.

I personally don't think Truex has a chance to win based on his performance so far this year and I don't think Kyle has any chance either since he is starting from the back in a parts car and we know how much he needs practice.

So you are kinda, basically getting Blaney versus Byron at +220.
Unfortunately my place has Blaney, Logano, Hamlin and Elliott in a group. I don't like that as much. I have Logano slightly ahead of RB this week.

It was more of a play against Byron
 
If you like Blaney over Byron and can bet at Draftkings, you can take Blaney +220 to win Group B over Byron, Kyle Busch, and Hamlin.

I personally don't think Truex has a chance to win based on his performance so far this year and I don't think Kyle has any chance either since he is starting from the back in a parts car and we know how much he needs practice.

So you are kinda, basically getting Blaney versus Byron at +220.
Of course, without the last caution, it would have been Truex and Kyle Busch to decide the winner after I said both had no chance. The caution allowed the Hendrick cars to fight it out.

I misjudged the Toyota cars today, Kyle, Truex, Hamlin, and Bell (at times) were at the front. Even Bubba was running around 10th when he was involved in a crash late in the race.
 
Back
Top