Saturday's Best Bets: Add This College Football Week 1 Parlay
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Saturday, September 4, 2021 at noon ET (FOX) at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wisconsin
Penn State's Coaching Situation
Under James Franklin, Penn State typically wants to begin its season by getting its feet wet against lower-profile teams like Akron and Idaho.
Of course, 2018 featured a near-upset loss against App State.
Last year's Big Ten-only schedule began with an upset loss at Indiana. Penn State sorely missed being able to prepare itself for its conference schedule by starting its season against easy opponents.
Saturday's opponent for Penn State is obviously far from being Akron or Idaho.
So, Franklin finds himself in an unusual and equally difficult situation by immediately having to face a (strong) Big Ten opponent.
Moreover, the Nittany Lions have a new offensive coordinator.
Now, to be clear, Mike Yurcich seems like an intriguing option, long-term, for the Nittany Lion offense.
But adjustment will be difficult because of the new schemes and concepts that Yurcich will have PSU players run.
After the Nittany Lions ranked 10th nationally in offensive time of possession last year, Yurcich will force them to look very different this year.
The Nittany Lions will switch from a grind-it-out offensive approach to one that emphasizes both air raid and spread concepts.
Penn State Pass Attack vs. Wisconsin Defense
Nittany Lion quarterback Sean Clifford is known for locking onto his primary wide receivers.
Last year, for example, in the shortened season, PSU's second-leading wide receiver had more than twice as many receptions as the team's third-leading wide receiver.
When facing Penn State, it's therefore important for an opposing secondary to be strong at the top.
Indeed, Wisconsin's top two cornerbacks look solid. Faion Hicks enters his fourth season as a starter. Last year, PFF graded Hicks as Wisconsin's top defender in coverage after opposing quarterbacks failed to approach a 50-percent completion rate when throwing his way.
Viewed together, Hicks and fellow cornerback Caesar Williams enjoy 68 games of playing experience combined.
While the Nittany Lions have tried to prepare Clifford to do a better job spreading the ball around, Wisconsin is ready in this respect, too, with a deep cast of corners that is laden with experience.
If a promising pass-catching Penn State tight end decides to morph into Pat Freiermuth, the Badgers are well-prepared with linebacker Jack Sanborn, who was highly graded in pass coverage partly for his ability to cover opposing tight ends.
Wisconsin Pass Attack Stays Mostly Grounded
It's hard to know what to expect from Badger quarterback Graham Mertz. He could look like he did against Illinois or like he did in Wisconsin's 14-6 loss to Indiana.
He'll have to contend with two well-established Penn State corners in former All-Big Ten third-teamer Tariq Castro-Fields and fellow returning starter Joey Porter.
Where I see the Badger secondary distinguishing itself from Penn State's is in its depth of returning experience with upper classmen like Donte Burton and Deron Harrell.
Also, Wisconsin will flash more depth at the wide receiver position with breakout candidate Chimere Dike, whose big play potential and route-running earned him rave reviews during the offseason.
The Badgers love throwing to their tight end, Jake Ferguson, who led Badger pass-catchers in receiving yards, receptions, and touchdowns last year.
Ferguson is a well-respected future NFL force with his impressive speed (for a tight end), explosiveness off the line of scrimmage, frame, verticality, strong hands, and unstoppability at the point of attack.
While PSU beat writers will hype up the athletic potential of some Nittany Lion linebackers in coverage, the reality is twofold: Penn State doesn't have a proven pass-catching tight end like Wisconsin does nor does it have a proven linebacker in coverage like the Badgers do.
Wisconsin's Advantage On The Ground
As great as Jonathan Taylor was, I feel like running backs are always overrated at the college level or above.
The importance of strong run protection is understated. Wisconsin reputedly understands this importance.
This year, eight of its top 10 guys return from last year, from a rush attack whose numbers belie the quality of a run-protection unit that dealt with an obnoxious level of disruptions of play and other painfully perceptible forms of discontinuity due to COVID.
These Badger blockers will handle a Nittany Lion defensive line that is qualitatively uncertain outside of PJ Mustipher after Antonio Shelton transferred to Florida.
Both teams lose their top defensive ends, but the Badgers distinguish themselves on the ground with the unusual length and talent of their blockers -- as measured by height and recruiting stats, respectively.
Wisconsin also looks stronger on the inside given its returning playmakers at inside linebacker and Keeanu Benton's returning presence in the interior.
Benton was someone who ate a lot of space and created measurable havoc, thus lightening the load of Wisconsin's well-established linebacking crew. He'll help navigate a Nittany Lion offensive line with some positional discontinuity and uncertainty in the interior.
The Verdict
Both offenses will be at their best on the ground, such that the clock will do a lot of running.
While the Nittany Lion offense would like to shift conceptually, the season opener naturally exposes a learning curve, not to mention when the opponent is not an Idaho or Akron.
The Badgers enjoy significant advantages in their coaching continuity, in the depth of their cornerback group, in their interior in the trenches on both offense and defense, in run protection as a whole, in the depth of their wide receiving crew, in their pass-catching tight end, and in their ability to cover tight ends. Plus, they boast a 3-0 ATS streak in Big Ten openers.
Best Bet: Parlay Badgers -5 at -115 & Under 50 at -110 at +257 odds with BetOnline
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Saturday, September 4, 2021 at noon ET (FOX) at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wisconsin
Penn State's Coaching Situation
Under James Franklin, Penn State typically wants to begin its season by getting its feet wet against lower-profile teams like Akron and Idaho.
Of course, 2018 featured a near-upset loss against App State.
Last year's Big Ten-only schedule began with an upset loss at Indiana. Penn State sorely missed being able to prepare itself for its conference schedule by starting its season against easy opponents.
Saturday's opponent for Penn State is obviously far from being Akron or Idaho.
So, Franklin finds himself in an unusual and equally difficult situation by immediately having to face a (strong) Big Ten opponent.
Moreover, the Nittany Lions have a new offensive coordinator.
Now, to be clear, Mike Yurcich seems like an intriguing option, long-term, for the Nittany Lion offense.
But adjustment will be difficult because of the new schemes and concepts that Yurcich will have PSU players run.
After the Nittany Lions ranked 10th nationally in offensive time of possession last year, Yurcich will force them to look very different this year.
The Nittany Lions will switch from a grind-it-out offensive approach to one that emphasizes both air raid and spread concepts.
Penn State Pass Attack vs. Wisconsin Defense
Nittany Lion quarterback Sean Clifford is known for locking onto his primary wide receivers.
Last year, for example, in the shortened season, PSU's second-leading wide receiver had more than twice as many receptions as the team's third-leading wide receiver.
When facing Penn State, it's therefore important for an opposing secondary to be strong at the top.
Indeed, Wisconsin's top two cornerbacks look solid. Faion Hicks enters his fourth season as a starter. Last year, PFF graded Hicks as Wisconsin's top defender in coverage after opposing quarterbacks failed to approach a 50-percent completion rate when throwing his way.
Viewed together, Hicks and fellow cornerback Caesar Williams enjoy 68 games of playing experience combined.
While the Nittany Lions have tried to prepare Clifford to do a better job spreading the ball around, Wisconsin is ready in this respect, too, with a deep cast of corners that is laden with experience.
If a promising pass-catching Penn State tight end decides to morph into Pat Freiermuth, the Badgers are well-prepared with linebacker Jack Sanborn, who was highly graded in pass coverage partly for his ability to cover opposing tight ends.
Wisconsin Pass Attack Stays Mostly Grounded
It's hard to know what to expect from Badger quarterback Graham Mertz. He could look like he did against Illinois or like he did in Wisconsin's 14-6 loss to Indiana.
He'll have to contend with two well-established Penn State corners in former All-Big Ten third-teamer Tariq Castro-Fields and fellow returning starter Joey Porter.
Where I see the Badger secondary distinguishing itself from Penn State's is in its depth of returning experience with upper classmen like Donte Burton and Deron Harrell.
Also, Wisconsin will flash more depth at the wide receiver position with breakout candidate Chimere Dike, whose big play potential and route-running earned him rave reviews during the offseason.
The Badgers love throwing to their tight end, Jake Ferguson, who led Badger pass-catchers in receiving yards, receptions, and touchdowns last year.
Ferguson is a well-respected future NFL force with his impressive speed (for a tight end), explosiveness off the line of scrimmage, frame, verticality, strong hands, and unstoppability at the point of attack.
While PSU beat writers will hype up the athletic potential of some Nittany Lion linebackers in coverage, the reality is twofold: Penn State doesn't have a proven pass-catching tight end like Wisconsin does nor does it have a proven linebacker in coverage like the Badgers do.
Wisconsin's Advantage On The Ground
As great as Jonathan Taylor was, I feel like running backs are always overrated at the college level or above.
The importance of strong run protection is understated. Wisconsin reputedly understands this importance.
This year, eight of its top 10 guys return from last year, from a rush attack whose numbers belie the quality of a run-protection unit that dealt with an obnoxious level of disruptions of play and other painfully perceptible forms of discontinuity due to COVID.
These Badger blockers will handle a Nittany Lion defensive line that is qualitatively uncertain outside of PJ Mustipher after Antonio Shelton transferred to Florida.
Both teams lose their top defensive ends, but the Badgers distinguish themselves on the ground with the unusual length and talent of their blockers -- as measured by height and recruiting stats, respectively.
Wisconsin also looks stronger on the inside given its returning playmakers at inside linebacker and Keeanu Benton's returning presence in the interior.
Benton was someone who ate a lot of space and created measurable havoc, thus lightening the load of Wisconsin's well-established linebacking crew. He'll help navigate a Nittany Lion offensive line with some positional discontinuity and uncertainty in the interior.
The Verdict
Both offenses will be at their best on the ground, such that the clock will do a lot of running.
While the Nittany Lion offense would like to shift conceptually, the season opener naturally exposes a learning curve, not to mention when the opponent is not an Idaho or Akron.
The Badgers enjoy significant advantages in their coaching continuity, in the depth of their cornerback group, in their interior in the trenches on both offense and defense, in run protection as a whole, in the depth of their wide receiving crew, in their pass-catching tight end, and in their ability to cover tight ends. Plus, they boast a 3-0 ATS streak in Big Ten openers.
Best Bet: Parlay Badgers -5 at -115 & Under 50 at -110 at +257 odds with BetOnline
