Penn State vs Ohio State: NCAAF Week 13 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Penn State vs Ohio State
Saturday, November 23, 2019 at noon ET (FOX) at Ohio Stadium
Odds
Oddsmakers have Ohio State favored by close to 20 points.
This spread may seem huge. But oddsmakers are struggling to account for just how good Ohio State is.
Currently, OSU enjoys an 8-1 ATS run both in its last nine games and against Big Ten opponents.
The Nittany Lions Were And Still Are Overrated
It shocked me that Penn State was in the playoff discussion for as long as it was.
PSU never showed the necessary success with its best win being an escape against an Iowa team that was coming off a battle with Michigan.
Likewise, PSU escaped Michigan after then-underachieving UM spotted it with a 21-point lead in a crazy environment that it was not prepared for.
Then, Penn State was outplayed by Minnesota in a loss and it could have easily lost to Indiana if not for the Hoosiers making too many dumb mistakes.
Penn State’s Defense Is Struggling
Penn State’s defense had cultivated a positive reputation. But PSU hasn’t been deserving of it, lately.
Two weeks ago, PSU allowed Minnesota’s Tanner Morgan to go 18-for 20 for 339 yards and three touchdowns. Morgan easily had his second-best game of the season in terms of passer rating.
Last week, Indiana’s Peyton Ramsey went 31-for-41 for 371 yards and a touchdown, statistically producing perhaps the best game of his career against Penn State.
Film study reveals serious flaws. Defensive backs are getting burned and otherwise struggling to cover guys one on one. They’re making mistakes with basic fundamentals, incurring lapses of communication that prevent any defensive back from being near a receiver, and generally failing to execute.
Their failure is coming despite trying to focus on all sorts of different set-ups: blitzing, for example, to account for a fizzling pass rush that allegedly was inactive against Minnesota because of Minnesota’s offensive scheme, but was also totally unproductive against Indiana.
PSU shows a 4.59 percent sack rate in its past three games, which would put it 99th nationally if it were a season statistic.
It has also tried dropping more guys in coverage. But nothing is working to even offer resistance to opposing offenses whether they throw deep or dink-and-dunk.
Penn State’s Defensive Woes Are Worrisome
While Penn State’s pass defense has been getting gashed, its run defense has shown problems, too and Penn State’s defensive problems aren’t merely a recent phenomenon.
Though it was never going to beat a major program like Penn State, Buffalo provides another example of an offense that could thrive against Penn State. It relied on misdirection in order to turn the Nittany Lions’ characteristic speed and aggressiveness against itself.
Zone-blocking was also fundamental to the Bulls as they ran for 184 yards against Penn State without support from a competent quarterback.
Ohio State Will Run All Over Penn State
For a favorite to cover a huge spread, it’s crucial that it can score a ton of points. One reason why Ohio State can put up 50+ against Penn State is its rush attack.
Ohio State has one of the nation’s top rushing offenses and zone-blocking continues to obviously be a fundamental part of it. In zone-blocking, Buckeye blockers work to engage the respective defensive lineman in his gap or, if none is there, to engage a second-level defender.
Dobbins, now in his third year at Ohio State, is absolutely acclimated to running behind zone-blocking. He’s great at manipulating opposing linebackers to put themselves in bad positions for pursuit by pressing close to his linemen.
He’s shifty, he shows skilled hesitation and patience between the tackles, he’s explosive, and he has great breakaway speed.
For these reasons, he’s the nation-s fifth-leading rusher on seven YPC as he’s enjoyed massive success against even tough opponents like Wisconsin and Michigan State (as the Spartans still had defensive leader Joe Bachie).
Penn State’s Pass Defense Is In Serious Trouble
Justin Fields should have a field day against a PSU pass defense that’s repeatedly getting gashed. He’s accumulated a passer rating of 148 or higher while throwing for multiple touchdowns against every opponent thus far. He’s thrown 31 touchdowns to one interception on the season.
He’s adept at avoiding pressure from opposing pass-rushers while keeping his eyes downfield, locating an open pass-catcher, and throwing an accurate pass. Five different Buckeye receivers average over 10 YPC on between 15-37 receptions.
PSU’s Offense Can’t Keep Up
When Penn State falls behind, it will inevitably have to pass a lot.
But OSU enjoys an elite pass defense that ranks second nationally in opposing passer rating.
While Peyton Ramsey, for example, dominated the Nittany Lions, OSU held Ramsey to his lowest passer rating and his worst overall statistical performance of the season.
Chase Young is a big part of OSU’s success as he’s basically unblockable off the edge. He has 13.5 sacks this season despite not playing against Maryland or Rutgers and he’ll easily be the biggest challenge that PSU’s freshman left tackle will encounter.
In the secondary, Jeffrey Okudah draws comparisons to superstar Jalen Ramsey. Okudah leads the team with three interceptions and is second with four passes defensed. A Jim Thorpe Award (for best defensive back) favorite, Okudah is projected as a high draft pick given his skill set in man coverage.
He’s known for impeding opposing routes and employing his lightning-quick feet to lock onto his opponent. Penn State has one considerably dangerous wide receiver, K.J. Hamler. Hamler has 12 receptions and 367 more yards than PSU’s second-leading pass-catcher and I absolutely expect Okudah to spend the most time covering him and locking him down.
Conclusion
Ohio State has the nation’s top scoring offense (51.5 points per game) and the personnel to lead a balanced attack against a struggling Penn State defense.
While Penn State will need to pass to stay in it, it contends with the most dominant pass rusher in college football and a stacked secondary that continues Ohio State’s recent tradition for producing high-caliber defensive backs.
Best Bet: Buckeyes -17.5 at -116 odds with Pinnacle
Penn State vs Ohio State
Saturday, November 23, 2019 at noon ET (FOX) at Ohio Stadium
Odds
Oddsmakers have Ohio State favored by close to 20 points.
This spread may seem huge. But oddsmakers are struggling to account for just how good Ohio State is.
Currently, OSU enjoys an 8-1 ATS run both in its last nine games and against Big Ten opponents.
The Nittany Lions Were And Still Are Overrated
It shocked me that Penn State was in the playoff discussion for as long as it was.
PSU never showed the necessary success with its best win being an escape against an Iowa team that was coming off a battle with Michigan.
Likewise, PSU escaped Michigan after then-underachieving UM spotted it with a 21-point lead in a crazy environment that it was not prepared for.
Then, Penn State was outplayed by Minnesota in a loss and it could have easily lost to Indiana if not for the Hoosiers making too many dumb mistakes.
Penn State’s Defense Is Struggling
Penn State’s defense had cultivated a positive reputation. But PSU hasn’t been deserving of it, lately.
Two weeks ago, PSU allowed Minnesota’s Tanner Morgan to go 18-for 20 for 339 yards and three touchdowns. Morgan easily had his second-best game of the season in terms of passer rating.
Last week, Indiana’s Peyton Ramsey went 31-for-41 for 371 yards and a touchdown, statistically producing perhaps the best game of his career against Penn State.
Film study reveals serious flaws. Defensive backs are getting burned and otherwise struggling to cover guys one on one. They’re making mistakes with basic fundamentals, incurring lapses of communication that prevent any defensive back from being near a receiver, and generally failing to execute.
Their failure is coming despite trying to focus on all sorts of different set-ups: blitzing, for example, to account for a fizzling pass rush that allegedly was inactive against Minnesota because of Minnesota’s offensive scheme, but was also totally unproductive against Indiana.
PSU shows a 4.59 percent sack rate in its past three games, which would put it 99th nationally if it were a season statistic.
It has also tried dropping more guys in coverage. But nothing is working to even offer resistance to opposing offenses whether they throw deep or dink-and-dunk.
Penn State’s Defensive Woes Are Worrisome
While Penn State’s pass defense has been getting gashed, its run defense has shown problems, too and Penn State’s defensive problems aren’t merely a recent phenomenon.
Though it was never going to beat a major program like Penn State, Buffalo provides another example of an offense that could thrive against Penn State. It relied on misdirection in order to turn the Nittany Lions’ characteristic speed and aggressiveness against itself.
Zone-blocking was also fundamental to the Bulls as they ran for 184 yards against Penn State without support from a competent quarterback.
Ohio State Will Run All Over Penn State
For a favorite to cover a huge spread, it’s crucial that it can score a ton of points. One reason why Ohio State can put up 50+ against Penn State is its rush attack.
Ohio State has one of the nation’s top rushing offenses and zone-blocking continues to obviously be a fundamental part of it. In zone-blocking, Buckeye blockers work to engage the respective defensive lineman in his gap or, if none is there, to engage a second-level defender.
Dobbins, now in his third year at Ohio State, is absolutely acclimated to running behind zone-blocking. He’s great at manipulating opposing linebackers to put themselves in bad positions for pursuit by pressing close to his linemen.
He’s shifty, he shows skilled hesitation and patience between the tackles, he’s explosive, and he has great breakaway speed.
For these reasons, he’s the nation-s fifth-leading rusher on seven YPC as he’s enjoyed massive success against even tough opponents like Wisconsin and Michigan State (as the Spartans still had defensive leader Joe Bachie).
Penn State’s Pass Defense Is In Serious Trouble
Justin Fields should have a field day against a PSU pass defense that’s repeatedly getting gashed. He’s accumulated a passer rating of 148 or higher while throwing for multiple touchdowns against every opponent thus far. He’s thrown 31 touchdowns to one interception on the season.
He’s adept at avoiding pressure from opposing pass-rushers while keeping his eyes downfield, locating an open pass-catcher, and throwing an accurate pass. Five different Buckeye receivers average over 10 YPC on between 15-37 receptions.
PSU’s Offense Can’t Keep Up
When Penn State falls behind, it will inevitably have to pass a lot.
But OSU enjoys an elite pass defense that ranks second nationally in opposing passer rating.
While Peyton Ramsey, for example, dominated the Nittany Lions, OSU held Ramsey to his lowest passer rating and his worst overall statistical performance of the season.
Chase Young is a big part of OSU’s success as he’s basically unblockable off the edge. He has 13.5 sacks this season despite not playing against Maryland or Rutgers and he’ll easily be the biggest challenge that PSU’s freshman left tackle will encounter.
In the secondary, Jeffrey Okudah draws comparisons to superstar Jalen Ramsey. Okudah leads the team with three interceptions and is second with four passes defensed. A Jim Thorpe Award (for best defensive back) favorite, Okudah is projected as a high draft pick given his skill set in man coverage.
He’s known for impeding opposing routes and employing his lightning-quick feet to lock onto his opponent. Penn State has one considerably dangerous wide receiver, K.J. Hamler. Hamler has 12 receptions and 367 more yards than PSU’s second-leading pass-catcher and I absolutely expect Okudah to spend the most time covering him and locking him down.
Conclusion
Ohio State has the nation’s top scoring offense (51.5 points per game) and the personnel to lead a balanced attack against a struggling Penn State defense.
While Penn State will need to pass to stay in it, it contends with the most dominant pass rusher in college football and a stacked secondary that continues Ohio State’s recent tradition for producing high-caliber defensive backs.
Best Bet: Buckeyes -17.5 at -116 odds with Pinnacle
