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Back Physical Nittany Lions to Devour Northwestern
#4 Penn State (5-0) travels to face Northwestern (2-2) this Saturday at 12:00 ET. The Nittany Lions opened as 13.5 point favorites, but that number has been bet up to 15.5.
The main question confronting Northwestern is whether they can establish their rush attack. In both losses this season, Justin Jackson averaged less than 3 yards per carry. In both wins, he averaged more than 3 YPC and achieved over 100 yards. In 5 of 6 losses last season, Jackson ran for less than 100 yards. In 5 of 7 wins, Jackson ran for more than 100.
Last year, Northwestern's offensive line suffered from mistakes, inconsistency, poor feet movement and were generally unreliable. This year displays continuity. Last week, Wisconsin achieved 8 sacks and 11 tackles for loss against Northwestern. Jackson averaged 2.8 yards per carry. Northwestern, who is currently 109th in sack percentage allowed, has major struggles with protection.
Penn State, who is 20th in rush yards allowed per attempt and 31st in sack percentage, boasts a dominating defensive line. Curtis Cothran and Parker Cothren excel at occupying opposing blockers and causing disruption in the backfield. The two interior tackles are complemented by youthful talent at defensive end. Shareef Miller complements Ryan Buchholz's strength with his speed and length.
The leader of Penn State's defense is linebacker Jason Cabinda, with whom Penn State's defense has achieved a much stronger record and allowed much fewer points and yards than without. Second-year starters Manny Bowen and Koa Farmer accompany Cabinda. Bowen stands out because of his speed that makes him lethal in pursuit. His increased strength and adept timing in blitzes make him a dangerous pass rusher.
Northwestern will struggle to establish a rhythm offensively because of its offensive line. The Wildcats possess a talented quarterback in Clayton Thorson. But his completion % suffers from lack of protection. Thorson won't make up for the struggles of his teammates against a secondary that is 7th in yards allowed per pass attempt and is led by the highest quality and experience. Senior safety Marcus Allen is elite thanks to his explosive burst of quickness, strong frame, and length.
Northwestern's defense will confront the question of its ability to be physical.
The Wildcats' defensive line lost 3 of 4 starters and regresses from last year. For example, lowly Nevada rushed for an average of 5.5 yards per carry against them. Also, Duke ran for 233 yards against them and their leading rusher averaged 6.8 yards per carry.
The offensive line for Penn State is led by exponentially improving youth. Ryan Bates at left tackle and Connor McGovern earned All-Freshman honors by last season's end. All Big-10 right guard Brendan Mahon contributes veteran presence and lends the necessary size in order to effectively block Northwestern's two defensive tackles.
Northwestern's linebacking corps possesses some talent with Nate Hall but is forced to utilize a freshman at middle linebacker, the position which is crucial for the defense in terms of leadership and communication.
The Wildcats will focus on Penn State running back superstar Saquon Barkley. Barkley draws comparison to Steelers superstar Le'Veon Bell due to his patience and vision in attacking holes on the inside. His agility allows him to bounce outside and force defenders to miss tackles due to his elusiveness in open space. He is versatile in that he possesses breakaway speed but can also truck defenders. Northwestern lacks the defensive playmakers, leadership and ability to contain Barkley.
Trace McSorley will be able to exploit Northwestern's focus on Barkley.
Northwestern's secondary is banged-up due to the injury of three players who had been depended on to contribute significant playing time. The secondary will be extra vulnerable due to its defense's attention to Barkley. They have already showed vs Duke their struggle against dual-threat quarterbacks,
McSorley achieves a significant proportion of big passing plays. Because he consistently excels at the deep ball, he will be able to exploit the opportunities down the field that Wisconsin's quarterback missed last week. The mobile McSorley is a playmaker both inside and outside of the pocket with his vision and vertical passing. McSorley also enjoys a stacked wide receiving corps led by the skilled route-runner DaeSean Hamilton who reliably gets open and the well-sized and speedy Juwan Johnson.
The Verdict
Penn State will not look ahead to their upcoming schedule because they are heading into a bye week. They receive a boost from special teams and turnovers. Barkley is a special teams star and Northwestern ranks 110th in giveaways.
Northwestern lacks the talent and physicality to keep up with Penn State. Northwestern will also lack energy. Dating back to last season, teams that faced Wisconsin are 4-10 su the week after, the wins being against low-level competition. Nebraska, for instance, lost 62-3 to Ohio State. Then-ranked Michigan State, likewise after facing Wisconsin, was upset by Indiana.
NCAAF Pick: Penn State -14
Back Physical Nittany Lions to Devour Northwestern
#4 Penn State (5-0) travels to face Northwestern (2-2) this Saturday at 12:00 ET. The Nittany Lions opened as 13.5 point favorites, but that number has been bet up to 15.5.
The main question confronting Northwestern is whether they can establish their rush attack. In both losses this season, Justin Jackson averaged less than 3 yards per carry. In both wins, he averaged more than 3 YPC and achieved over 100 yards. In 5 of 6 losses last season, Jackson ran for less than 100 yards. In 5 of 7 wins, Jackson ran for more than 100.
Last year, Northwestern's offensive line suffered from mistakes, inconsistency, poor feet movement and were generally unreliable. This year displays continuity. Last week, Wisconsin achieved 8 sacks and 11 tackles for loss against Northwestern. Jackson averaged 2.8 yards per carry. Northwestern, who is currently 109th in sack percentage allowed, has major struggles with protection.
Penn State, who is 20th in rush yards allowed per attempt and 31st in sack percentage, boasts a dominating defensive line. Curtis Cothran and Parker Cothren excel at occupying opposing blockers and causing disruption in the backfield. The two interior tackles are complemented by youthful talent at defensive end. Shareef Miller complements Ryan Buchholz's strength with his speed and length.
The leader of Penn State's defense is linebacker Jason Cabinda, with whom Penn State's defense has achieved a much stronger record and allowed much fewer points and yards than without. Second-year starters Manny Bowen and Koa Farmer accompany Cabinda. Bowen stands out because of his speed that makes him lethal in pursuit. His increased strength and adept timing in blitzes make him a dangerous pass rusher.
Northwestern will struggle to establish a rhythm offensively because of its offensive line. The Wildcats possess a talented quarterback in Clayton Thorson. But his completion % suffers from lack of protection. Thorson won't make up for the struggles of his teammates against a secondary that is 7th in yards allowed per pass attempt and is led by the highest quality and experience. Senior safety Marcus Allen is elite thanks to his explosive burst of quickness, strong frame, and length.
Northwestern's defense will confront the question of its ability to be physical.
The Wildcats' defensive line lost 3 of 4 starters and regresses from last year. For example, lowly Nevada rushed for an average of 5.5 yards per carry against them. Also, Duke ran for 233 yards against them and their leading rusher averaged 6.8 yards per carry.
The offensive line for Penn State is led by exponentially improving youth. Ryan Bates at left tackle and Connor McGovern earned All-Freshman honors by last season's end. All Big-10 right guard Brendan Mahon contributes veteran presence and lends the necessary size in order to effectively block Northwestern's two defensive tackles.
Northwestern's linebacking corps possesses some talent with Nate Hall but is forced to utilize a freshman at middle linebacker, the position which is crucial for the defense in terms of leadership and communication.
The Wildcats will focus on Penn State running back superstar Saquon Barkley. Barkley draws comparison to Steelers superstar Le'Veon Bell due to his patience and vision in attacking holes on the inside. His agility allows him to bounce outside and force defenders to miss tackles due to his elusiveness in open space. He is versatile in that he possesses breakaway speed but can also truck defenders. Northwestern lacks the defensive playmakers, leadership and ability to contain Barkley.
Trace McSorley will be able to exploit Northwestern's focus on Barkley.
Northwestern's secondary is banged-up due to the injury of three players who had been depended on to contribute significant playing time. The secondary will be extra vulnerable due to its defense's attention to Barkley. They have already showed vs Duke their struggle against dual-threat quarterbacks,
McSorley achieves a significant proportion of big passing plays. Because he consistently excels at the deep ball, he will be able to exploit the opportunities down the field that Wisconsin's quarterback missed last week. The mobile McSorley is a playmaker both inside and outside of the pocket with his vision and vertical passing. McSorley also enjoys a stacked wide receiving corps led by the skilled route-runner DaeSean Hamilton who reliably gets open and the well-sized and speedy Juwan Johnson.
The Verdict
Penn State will not look ahead to their upcoming schedule because they are heading into a bye week. They receive a boost from special teams and turnovers. Barkley is a special teams star and Northwestern ranks 110th in giveaways.
Northwestern lacks the talent and physicality to keep up with Penn State. Northwestern will also lack energy. Dating back to last season, teams that faced Wisconsin are 4-10 su the week after, the wins being against low-level competition. Nebraska, for instance, lost 62-3 to Ohio State. Then-ranked Michigan State, likewise after facing Wisconsin, was upset by Indiana.
NCAAF Pick: Penn State -14
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