Penn State vs. Michigan: NCAAF Week 13 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan Wolverines
Saturday, November 28, 2020 at noon ET (ABC) at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Michigan
Trends
Penn State finds itself in a terrible situation in two respects.
One, Penn State is 1-16-1 ATS since 2015 after losing its last game straight-up.
In this situation, the Nittany Lions fail to cover the spread by an average 10.5-point differential.
Two, Franklin’s Penn State is 0-3 SU and ATS when playing at Michigan. Michigan won its last two meetings in this series 49-10 and 42-7.
Response To Adversity
Penn State's trend after a straight-up loss shows that James Franklin’s Penn State suffers in adversity.
We have seen this poor response to adversity in stronger Penn State squads as long as they were coached by Franklin.
For example, in 2017 Penn State lost to Ohio State and consequently lost its Big Ten Championship and Playoff hopes.
In the next game, Franklin's Nittany Lions were upset by Michigan State.
This year, Penn State has followed its loss to Ohio State with a loss at Nebraska and blowout losses to heavy underdog Maryland and to Iowa.
Right now, the Nittany Lions look mentally defeated. Given their history at Michigan, we can only expect the same half-hearted ineptness to continue for Penn State.
Michigan’s New Quarterback
It’s true that Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh’s record after a loss isn’t great, although it’s not nearly as bad as Franklin’s.
But Michigan is coming off a win. In that victory, the Wolverines discovered a winning quarterback, Cade McNamara, who completed 27 of 36 pass attempts for 260 yards and four touchdowns to zero interceptions.
I can only assume that Harbaugh starts McNamara on Saturday. But don’t be concerned even if Milton starts: Harbaugh has already shown his willingness to pull Joe Milton, the team’s initial starter, when things go south.
Michigan Offense vs. Penn State Defense
Michigan’s run percentage is as low as it is because the offense is repeatedly having to press from behind.
I will get into Penn State’s offensive issues later.
But Penn State's deflated morale also contributes to its uninspiring starts.
For reasons of bad offense and morale, Franklin’s squad ranks 123rd in averaging 6.6 first-half points per game.
Without having to press from behind — especially at home against Franklin’s crew — and (hopefully) with McNamara starting at quarterback, the Wolverines will run the ball more to ease McNamara into the contest.
Hassan Haskins is a strong and physical running back with nice leg drive and impressive ability to carry defenders forward. He’s averaging 6.2 YPC after eclipsing 100 rushing yards in Michigan’s last game against Rutgers.
With Haskins especially, the Wolverines can attack a Nittany Lion interior that is weaker thanks to the opt-out of star linebacker Micah Parsons.
Jesse Luketa and Ellis Brooks have produced disappointing tackle ratings, as measured by PFF.
But where Luketa and Brooks struggle the most is in coverage. They are absolute liabilities in space, as their abysmally low coverage ratings this season indicate. The same coverage woes extend to Penn State’s safeties, per PFF’s ratings.
So this is a game where the Wolverines can utilize their running backs and tight ends in the passing game.
Expect a healthy mixture of Chris Evans, who is coming off a season-high four receptions, and Nick Eubanks, who produced a season-high five receptions in his last game.
Also expect a lot of Ronnie Bell. Michigan’s top receiver is comfortable running routes across or finding spots in the middle of the field.
It won’t take much quality to defeat Penn State’s pass defense, especially by attacking the middle of the field.
For example, Iowa’s Spencer Petras has thrown the highest rate of quarterback-fault incompletions when attempting 10+-yard passes since the Big Ten began its season.
But Petras easily achieved his highest completion percentage against Penn State.
With the likes of McNamara and Bell, the Wolverines boast abundant quality.
Penn State Offense vs. Michigan Defense
Offensively, the Nittany Lions lack weapons.
Their top two running backs remain out indefinitely.
They lack an established starting quarterback. Sean Clifford and Will Levis are alternating at the position. Both are failing to complete 60 percent of their passes.
Franklin trusts Clifford to attack downfield. But he’s also already thrown eight interceptions. Levis, who’s averaging 6.9 YPA, does not have this same trust.
Also, top tight end Pat Freiermuth is out for the season. Freiermuth, with his size at 6-5, was a blessing for inaccurate quarterbacks because of his great frame, his catch radius, his athleticism, and his hands. So he’ll be missed on multiple levels.
Against Michigan, Penn State will be completely reliant on the big play, for which it will have to rely excessively on its top wide receiver, Jahan Dotson.
Dotson matches up particularly poorly with Michigan’s coverage scheme. Under Don Brown, the Wolverines favor a press-man style that will bother the small, and poorly-sized Dotson at 5-11 and 182 pounds by bumping him and otherwise disrupting his rhythm and route-running.
The Verdict
Oddsmakers repeatedly allow Penn State to be an easy fade in this situation because they do not account for how bad this team is off a loss and at Michigan.
Expect a big Michigan win because of the above trends, its favorable quarterback situation, its ability to attack Penn State in the middle of the field with the likes of Bell, Evans, Haskins, and others, Penn State’s lack of offensive weapons, and Michigan’s press-man coverage against Penn State’s top receiver.
Best Bet: Wolverines ML at -126 with Bookmaker
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan Wolverines
Saturday, November 28, 2020 at noon ET (ABC) at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Michigan
Trends
Penn State finds itself in a terrible situation in two respects.
One, Penn State is 1-16-1 ATS since 2015 after losing its last game straight-up.
In this situation, the Nittany Lions fail to cover the spread by an average 10.5-point differential.
Two, Franklin’s Penn State is 0-3 SU and ATS when playing at Michigan. Michigan won its last two meetings in this series 49-10 and 42-7.
Response To Adversity
Penn State's trend after a straight-up loss shows that James Franklin’s Penn State suffers in adversity.
We have seen this poor response to adversity in stronger Penn State squads as long as they were coached by Franklin.
For example, in 2017 Penn State lost to Ohio State and consequently lost its Big Ten Championship and Playoff hopes.
In the next game, Franklin's Nittany Lions were upset by Michigan State.
This year, Penn State has followed its loss to Ohio State with a loss at Nebraska and blowout losses to heavy underdog Maryland and to Iowa.
Right now, the Nittany Lions look mentally defeated. Given their history at Michigan, we can only expect the same half-hearted ineptness to continue for Penn State.
Michigan’s New Quarterback
It’s true that Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh’s record after a loss isn’t great, although it’s not nearly as bad as Franklin’s.
But Michigan is coming off a win. In that victory, the Wolverines discovered a winning quarterback, Cade McNamara, who completed 27 of 36 pass attempts for 260 yards and four touchdowns to zero interceptions.
I can only assume that Harbaugh starts McNamara on Saturday. But don’t be concerned even if Milton starts: Harbaugh has already shown his willingness to pull Joe Milton, the team’s initial starter, when things go south.
Michigan Offense vs. Penn State Defense
Michigan’s run percentage is as low as it is because the offense is repeatedly having to press from behind.
I will get into Penn State’s offensive issues later.
But Penn State's deflated morale also contributes to its uninspiring starts.
For reasons of bad offense and morale, Franklin’s squad ranks 123rd in averaging 6.6 first-half points per game.
Without having to press from behind — especially at home against Franklin’s crew — and (hopefully) with McNamara starting at quarterback, the Wolverines will run the ball more to ease McNamara into the contest.
Hassan Haskins is a strong and physical running back with nice leg drive and impressive ability to carry defenders forward. He’s averaging 6.2 YPC after eclipsing 100 rushing yards in Michigan’s last game against Rutgers.
With Haskins especially, the Wolverines can attack a Nittany Lion interior that is weaker thanks to the opt-out of star linebacker Micah Parsons.
Jesse Luketa and Ellis Brooks have produced disappointing tackle ratings, as measured by PFF.
But where Luketa and Brooks struggle the most is in coverage. They are absolute liabilities in space, as their abysmally low coverage ratings this season indicate. The same coverage woes extend to Penn State’s safeties, per PFF’s ratings.
So this is a game where the Wolverines can utilize their running backs and tight ends in the passing game.
Expect a healthy mixture of Chris Evans, who is coming off a season-high four receptions, and Nick Eubanks, who produced a season-high five receptions in his last game.
Also expect a lot of Ronnie Bell. Michigan’s top receiver is comfortable running routes across or finding spots in the middle of the field.
It won’t take much quality to defeat Penn State’s pass defense, especially by attacking the middle of the field.
For example, Iowa’s Spencer Petras has thrown the highest rate of quarterback-fault incompletions when attempting 10+-yard passes since the Big Ten began its season.
But Petras easily achieved his highest completion percentage against Penn State.
With the likes of McNamara and Bell, the Wolverines boast abundant quality.
Penn State Offense vs. Michigan Defense
Offensively, the Nittany Lions lack weapons.
Their top two running backs remain out indefinitely.
They lack an established starting quarterback. Sean Clifford and Will Levis are alternating at the position. Both are failing to complete 60 percent of their passes.
Franklin trusts Clifford to attack downfield. But he’s also already thrown eight interceptions. Levis, who’s averaging 6.9 YPA, does not have this same trust.
Also, top tight end Pat Freiermuth is out for the season. Freiermuth, with his size at 6-5, was a blessing for inaccurate quarterbacks because of his great frame, his catch radius, his athleticism, and his hands. So he’ll be missed on multiple levels.
Against Michigan, Penn State will be completely reliant on the big play, for which it will have to rely excessively on its top wide receiver, Jahan Dotson.
Dotson matches up particularly poorly with Michigan’s coverage scheme. Under Don Brown, the Wolverines favor a press-man style that will bother the small, and poorly-sized Dotson at 5-11 and 182 pounds by bumping him and otherwise disrupting his rhythm and route-running.
The Verdict
Oddsmakers repeatedly allow Penn State to be an easy fade in this situation because they do not account for how bad this team is off a loss and at Michigan.
Expect a big Michigan win because of the above trends, its favorable quarterback situation, its ability to attack Penn State in the middle of the field with the likes of Bell, Evans, Haskins, and others, Penn State’s lack of offensive weapons, and Michigan’s press-man coverage against Penn State’s top receiver.
Best Bet: Wolverines ML at -126 with Bookmaker
