Penn State Will Take Step Back in 2018 Win Total
The Nittany Lions were not far from making the playoffs in 2017. But departed players, especially on defense, will leave too many holes for Penn State’s talented youth to fill this season.
Penn State 2018 Regular Season Win Total
NCAAF Pick: Under 9.5 Wins
2017: 11-2, 8-4-1 ATS, 7-6 O/U
Top Heisman Candidate: Trace McSorley: +1600
Odds to Win Big Ten: +750
Odds to Win National Championship: +2500
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Introducing your 2018 Football Schedule Poster!
️ <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeAre?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#WeAre</a> <a href="https://t.co/rqxmjH4OS6">pic.twitter.com/rqxmjH4OS6</a></p>— Penn State Football (@PennStateFball) <a href="
">12. Juli 2018</a></blockquote>
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Offense
Quarterback Trace McSorley is Penn State’s leader on offense. In two years as starter, he amassed 59 touchdowns to 18 interceptions and 899 rush yards. After ranking top 10 in completion percentage and quarterback rating on passes of 20+ yards in 2016, he improved his accuracy on shorter throws and achieved a 66.5 completion percentage in 2017. He’s also a strong runner, showing his ability in the Fiesta Bowl to juke an opposing defender.
Superstar running back Saquon Barkley departs. While he was known for his Houdini-like escapes from defensive pressure, he was also often a drive-killing nuisance by trying to bounce outside to break a big gain and getting tackled for a five-yard loss. Backup Miles Sanders was the top recruit in the 2016 class. Granted with a very small sample size, he averaged over six yards per carry. He’s not as strong or fast as Barkley, but he hits the holes effectively and shows downhill running ability, pass catching, and big-play potential. In 2016, he was also the second-most prolific kick returner in school history.
PSU's top receiver in terms of yards, DaeSean Hamilton, departs. Juwan Johnson will try to take his place. He averaged 5.5 catches and 78 yards in his last four games. DeAndre Thompkins is a deep threat with more speed than Hamilton. He distinguished himself with a 70-yard touchdown against Michigan State. Top recruit Justin Shorter could make an immediate impact at wide receiver. The biggest loss is first team Big 10 tight end Mike Gesicki, who led Penn State in receptions and co-led in receiving touchdowns. He was a big and reliable target particularly on third down and in the red zone. The experienced tight ends don’t have anywhere near the same ability to fulfill Gesicki’s role, accumulating all of three career receptions for 31 yards, although freshman Zack Kuntz can become a significant pass catcher with his athletic ability.
The chemistry of PSU’s o-line was derailed by injury, particularly that of Ryan Bates, who still made Third Team Big 10. With four of five starters returning, it will show better chemistry and communication, even if injuries challenge their depth, with numerous backups able to succeed at different positions. Granted, the o-line’s quality is a matter of „it can only go up from here.“ Last season, it ranked outside the top 88 in both power success rate and stuff rate.
Ricky Rahne is the new offensive coordinator. In the Fiesta Bowl, the biggest improvement that he showed compared with his predecessor was his aggressive play-calling with the lead, which could have won Penn State the nail-biter against Ohio State.
McSorley took a big step forward last season, but defenses concentrated their attention on stopping Barkley. Four games, mostly against lower-tiered competition, compose Johnson’s resume, who didn’t catch a single touchdown. McSorley loses two key scorers, Hamilton and Gesicki, each of whom caught nine touchdowns last season. Rahne has introduced new packages to give other guys touches in situations where Gesicki would have been the target, but Gesicki’s combination of physical presence and athleticism is unmatched by Penn State’s current tight ends. PSU's offense depends significantly on two inexperienced players making a significant impact, Kuntz and Sanders. Young players need good coaches, but, although Rahne was promoted to OC, a running backs coach and wide receiver coach needed to be brought in from Florida and Army, respectively.
Since 1990, 72.4% of teams with 11.50 or lower YPP (PSU had 11.21) in the prior season finished with the same or worse record in the next season.
Defense
The defensive line boasts depth but unimpressive success at the end position, led by Shareef Miller’s 11.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks in 2017. PSU ranked 69th in sack rate on standard downs, managing only four sacks combined against OSU and MSU, and consistently let opposing quarterbacks be comfortable in the pocket. PSU's two starting defensive tackles, who combined for 47 starts the past two seasons, plus another one, departed. There is little proven quality and experience in their replacements, led by Kevin Givens, who has bounced between defensive tackle and defensive end. There’s also little depth for rotation, meaning that this unit will deteriorate late in games. Another defensive end, Ryan Buchholz, may even rotate at defensive tackle.
The linebacking crew loses PSU’s leading and third-leading tacklers. At middle linebacker, Jason Cabinda was the defense’s quarterback and a highly-ranked run defender. Penn State is so desperate to replace him,that it initially moved freshman Micah Parsons, who was recruited as a defensive end, into Cabinda’s position, before repositioning him at outside linebacker. A redshirt freshman who understands the position better, Ellis Brooks, could replace him as a first-year starter. The perpetual discipline problem Manny Bowen and Koa Farmer are the team’s most experienced returning linebackers. They finished fifth and sixth respectively in tackles and must assume larger roles.
In the secondary, cornerback John Reid started in 2016 and Amani Oruwariye, despite not starting, led PSU with four interceptions. Tariq Castro-Fields was a top prospect heading into 2016 and achieved three passes defended against Michigan State. The major question lies at safety. Marcus Allen was, like Cabinda, a crucial leader. He was PSU’s fifth all-time leading tackler, distinguishing himself with his downhill momentum against the opposing rush attack. Troy Apke was also important, accruing 54 tackles in 2017. In 2018, PSU will rely on a former running back in Nick Scott and a former cornerback in Lamont Wade to replace Allen and Apke. Even assuming that PSU’s corners live up to their predecessors, they were shredded by the better quarterbacks they faced last season. Ohio State’s J.T. Barrett and Michigan State’s Brian Lewerke combined for 728 yards, six touchdowns, and one interception. Nebraska’s Tanner Lee also threw for 399 yards.
The entire middle of the field looks extremely vulnerable with two starting defensive tackles leaving questionable depth in its place, the leading tackler and emotional leader departing from the middle linebacker position, and both safeties playing on Sundays. Overall, its top four tacklers are gone.
Since 1990, 68.8% of teams that conceded a defensive YPP between 19.85-21.34 (PSU had 20.01) finished with the same or weaker record in the following year.
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The Nittany Lions were not far from making the playoffs in 2017. But departed players, especially on defense, will leave too many holes for Penn State’s talented youth to fill this season.
Penn State 2018 Regular Season Win Total
NCAAF Pick: Under 9.5 Wins
2017: 11-2, 8-4-1 ATS, 7-6 O/U
Top Heisman Candidate: Trace McSorley: +1600
Odds to Win Big Ten: +750
Odds to Win National Championship: +2500
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Introducing your 2018 Football Schedule Poster!
️ <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeAre?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#WeAre</a> <a href="https://t.co/rqxmjH4OS6">pic.twitter.com/rqxmjH4OS6</a></p>— Penn State Football (@PennStateFball) <a href="
">12. Juli 2018</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Offense
Quarterback Trace McSorley is Penn State’s leader on offense. In two years as starter, he amassed 59 touchdowns to 18 interceptions and 899 rush yards. After ranking top 10 in completion percentage and quarterback rating on passes of 20+ yards in 2016, he improved his accuracy on shorter throws and achieved a 66.5 completion percentage in 2017. He’s also a strong runner, showing his ability in the Fiesta Bowl to juke an opposing defender.
Superstar running back Saquon Barkley departs. While he was known for his Houdini-like escapes from defensive pressure, he was also often a drive-killing nuisance by trying to bounce outside to break a big gain and getting tackled for a five-yard loss. Backup Miles Sanders was the top recruit in the 2016 class. Granted with a very small sample size, he averaged over six yards per carry. He’s not as strong or fast as Barkley, but he hits the holes effectively and shows downhill running ability, pass catching, and big-play potential. In 2016, he was also the second-most prolific kick returner in school history.
PSU's top receiver in terms of yards, DaeSean Hamilton, departs. Juwan Johnson will try to take his place. He averaged 5.5 catches and 78 yards in his last four games. DeAndre Thompkins is a deep threat with more speed than Hamilton. He distinguished himself with a 70-yard touchdown against Michigan State. Top recruit Justin Shorter could make an immediate impact at wide receiver. The biggest loss is first team Big 10 tight end Mike Gesicki, who led Penn State in receptions and co-led in receiving touchdowns. He was a big and reliable target particularly on third down and in the red zone. The experienced tight ends don’t have anywhere near the same ability to fulfill Gesicki’s role, accumulating all of three career receptions for 31 yards, although freshman Zack Kuntz can become a significant pass catcher with his athletic ability.
The chemistry of PSU’s o-line was derailed by injury, particularly that of Ryan Bates, who still made Third Team Big 10. With four of five starters returning, it will show better chemistry and communication, even if injuries challenge their depth, with numerous backups able to succeed at different positions. Granted, the o-line’s quality is a matter of „it can only go up from here.“ Last season, it ranked outside the top 88 in both power success rate and stuff rate.
Ricky Rahne is the new offensive coordinator. In the Fiesta Bowl, the biggest improvement that he showed compared with his predecessor was his aggressive play-calling with the lead, which could have won Penn State the nail-biter against Ohio State.
McSorley took a big step forward last season, but defenses concentrated their attention on stopping Barkley. Four games, mostly against lower-tiered competition, compose Johnson’s resume, who didn’t catch a single touchdown. McSorley loses two key scorers, Hamilton and Gesicki, each of whom caught nine touchdowns last season. Rahne has introduced new packages to give other guys touches in situations where Gesicki would have been the target, but Gesicki’s combination of physical presence and athleticism is unmatched by Penn State’s current tight ends. PSU's offense depends significantly on two inexperienced players making a significant impact, Kuntz and Sanders. Young players need good coaches, but, although Rahne was promoted to OC, a running backs coach and wide receiver coach needed to be brought in from Florida and Army, respectively.
Since 1990, 72.4% of teams with 11.50 or lower YPP (PSU had 11.21) in the prior season finished with the same or worse record in the next season.
Defense
The defensive line boasts depth but unimpressive success at the end position, led by Shareef Miller’s 11.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks in 2017. PSU ranked 69th in sack rate on standard downs, managing only four sacks combined against OSU and MSU, and consistently let opposing quarterbacks be comfortable in the pocket. PSU's two starting defensive tackles, who combined for 47 starts the past two seasons, plus another one, departed. There is little proven quality and experience in their replacements, led by Kevin Givens, who has bounced between defensive tackle and defensive end. There’s also little depth for rotation, meaning that this unit will deteriorate late in games. Another defensive end, Ryan Buchholz, may even rotate at defensive tackle.
The linebacking crew loses PSU’s leading and third-leading tacklers. At middle linebacker, Jason Cabinda was the defense’s quarterback and a highly-ranked run defender. Penn State is so desperate to replace him,that it initially moved freshman Micah Parsons, who was recruited as a defensive end, into Cabinda’s position, before repositioning him at outside linebacker. A redshirt freshman who understands the position better, Ellis Brooks, could replace him as a first-year starter. The perpetual discipline problem Manny Bowen and Koa Farmer are the team’s most experienced returning linebackers. They finished fifth and sixth respectively in tackles and must assume larger roles.
In the secondary, cornerback John Reid started in 2016 and Amani Oruwariye, despite not starting, led PSU with four interceptions. Tariq Castro-Fields was a top prospect heading into 2016 and achieved three passes defended against Michigan State. The major question lies at safety. Marcus Allen was, like Cabinda, a crucial leader. He was PSU’s fifth all-time leading tackler, distinguishing himself with his downhill momentum against the opposing rush attack. Troy Apke was also important, accruing 54 tackles in 2017. In 2018, PSU will rely on a former running back in Nick Scott and a former cornerback in Lamont Wade to replace Allen and Apke. Even assuming that PSU’s corners live up to their predecessors, they were shredded by the better quarterbacks they faced last season. Ohio State’s J.T. Barrett and Michigan State’s Brian Lewerke combined for 728 yards, six touchdowns, and one interception. Nebraska’s Tanner Lee also threw for 399 yards.
The entire middle of the field looks extremely vulnerable with two starting defensive tackles leaving questionable depth in its place, the leading tackler and emotional leader departing from the middle linebacker position, and both safeties playing on Sundays. Overall, its top four tacklers are gone.
Since 1990, 68.8% of teams that conceded a defensive YPP between 19.85-21.34 (PSU had 20.01) finished with the same or weaker record in the following year.
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