s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I like Indiana.
First off, this series has been really competitive with two misleading finals.
2016 - Penn State won 45-31 nothing to see here right? Actually as some I'm sure will painfully remember, Penn State scored 10 absolute gift wrapped points in the final 1 minute of the game. PSU had just taken a 35-31 lead. IU was stopped on 4th down at their own 22, IU D held, using timeouts and PSU kicked short FG. Then next possession IU QB Lagow was sacked/fumbled which PSU ran in 9 yards for a TD to amazingly to win 45-31! Indiana actually led by 10 at one point and IU outgained them 454-409 (5.5-5.5).
2017 - Penn State would lead 28-0 1st Q, but do you remember how it happened? Saquan Barkley opening KO ret TD, ok nothing too abnormal about that. Then second play of the game IU fumbled in their own territory leading to PSU TD, then IU fumbled a punt which PSU ran in for 13y TD, 21-0 now, then PSU was punting, but IU roughed the P and PSU would go on for another TD...28-0 1st Q. IU stopped Penn State twice in the quarter and was supposed to start possessions following PSU punts, but Hoosiers blew it with the fumble and the roughing. PSU went on to win 45-14, but only outgained Hoosiers 370-352 (5.0-4.5).
2018 - Hamler opened the game with a 58y KO return giving PSU a short field TD, but IU would have a 14-7 lead. Ramsey started, but Penix came off the bench to play most of the 1st H, Ramsey played entire 2nd H. PSU took a 17-14 lead, then IU was SOD at P10 just before HT. IU fumbled at the P23 to open the 3rd Q. PSU went up 20-14, but then IU regained a 21-20 lead. A 94y KO return set McSorley up for a 5y TD run (xpt blk'd). 26-21. IU fumbled a punt setting PSU up on a short field and they made it 33-21. IU was INT'd on 4th down at the P36, but they were able to score a TD with just :49 left to cut it to 33-28. IU recovered onside kick but couldn't do anything and ran out of time. IU outgained them 554-417 (5.5-5.7) - PSU did have 170y in KO returns.
2019 - PSU went 3-and-out to open, but IU muffed the punt and PSU got a short field TD. IU tied, PSU kicked FG...10-7, IU would take 14-10 lead. Clifford ran for 38y TD...17-14 end of 1st Q. IU would not lead again. 20-14 HT. IU faked a punt at their own 40 which was stopped and PSU turned that into a 27-14 lead. IU cut it to 27-17, then IU drove 11p 91y to make it 27-24 early 4th. Then PSU would go on an epic 18p 9minute drive converting 4th down twice for TD...34-24. IU kicked a FG with :13 left, PSU recovered the onside kick. 34-27 F. IU outgained them 462-371 (6.4-5.5). Clifford was just 11-23-179-1-0.
Some reoccuring themes here:
Penn State has crushed Indiana with special teams plays (or Indiana has crushed themselves). Big PSU KO returns and muffed/fumbled punts by IU have happened in every game.
Indiana has outgained them in 3 of the last 4 and the only time PSU outgained them was by a mere 18 yards. Perhaps more surprisingly Indiana has outrushed them in 3 of the last 4 as well (only year PSU outrushed them was last year). Total IU yards 1913, Total PSU yards 1567 (of course KO return yards are not factored). Rushing yards IU 602 PSU 482.
In 3 of 4 games IU was able to lead at points in the first half and always remain within 1 score, IU led at HT once. In the last 2 games IU was within one score in the second half before PSU extended their leads and in 3 of the last 4 it was a one score game in the 4th quarter.
The 2019 Indiana team was good and this one looks just as good if not better if QB Penix can take the offense to the next step. There is proven skill and a decent OL that is very good in a couple spots and presumably solid in others. The D has been terrific under Allen. Losing LB/S Ball to ACL is tough. The Hoosiers have some depth on D now and they should be able to cope with that loss. Special teams should be fine.
2020 Penn State has some spots they are reloading at. I expect their OL and DL to be their normal strong self. I think IU defensive front should be fine; PSU's DL is going to be a challenge, but it isn't anything Indiana hasn't faced before. IU OL has been putting guys in the NFL for a few years now and there are a couple candidates again on this line. So I am hopeful IU OL is up for it. RB Journey Brown is out and he was pretty good, I'm sure Penn State will be fine at RB. I am actually more hopeful that IU gains an edge in the passing game. No Hamler, that is much bigger to me than no Brown. We'll see who can take over at receiver for PSU in terms of a game changer. The biggest loss on the PSU D side is the Parsons opt-out. Without Parsons now PSU LB starters are completely new for this game. They won't be bad, but they won't be up to normal standards right off the bat either.
Both teams have new OCs. IU's OC was promoted from within and has been on the staff since 2017. PSU's OC comes from Minnesota and Western Michigan where he was OC for Fleck.
These teams have been pretty even in most of their recent games. The difference is Penn State has made big impactful plays to tilt the game in their favor. Maybe that just have "it" and Indiana is just Indiana again. It is hard for teams like Indiana to get over the hump vs opponents like this. But it does look and feel like Indiana is on the cusp of a break-through win in Big Ten play. Game 1 of a weird 2020 season, I don't see too much of a reason it can't be here. Just no fumbled punts please!
First off, this series has been really competitive with two misleading finals.
2016 - Penn State won 45-31 nothing to see here right? Actually as some I'm sure will painfully remember, Penn State scored 10 absolute gift wrapped points in the final 1 minute of the game. PSU had just taken a 35-31 lead. IU was stopped on 4th down at their own 22, IU D held, using timeouts and PSU kicked short FG. Then next possession IU QB Lagow was sacked/fumbled which PSU ran in 9 yards for a TD to amazingly to win 45-31! Indiana actually led by 10 at one point and IU outgained them 454-409 (5.5-5.5).
2017 - Penn State would lead 28-0 1st Q, but do you remember how it happened? Saquan Barkley opening KO ret TD, ok nothing too abnormal about that. Then second play of the game IU fumbled in their own territory leading to PSU TD, then IU fumbled a punt which PSU ran in for 13y TD, 21-0 now, then PSU was punting, but IU roughed the P and PSU would go on for another TD...28-0 1st Q. IU stopped Penn State twice in the quarter and was supposed to start possessions following PSU punts, but Hoosiers blew it with the fumble and the roughing. PSU went on to win 45-14, but only outgained Hoosiers 370-352 (5.0-4.5).
2018 - Hamler opened the game with a 58y KO return giving PSU a short field TD, but IU would have a 14-7 lead. Ramsey started, but Penix came off the bench to play most of the 1st H, Ramsey played entire 2nd H. PSU took a 17-14 lead, then IU was SOD at P10 just before HT. IU fumbled at the P23 to open the 3rd Q. PSU went up 20-14, but then IU regained a 21-20 lead. A 94y KO return set McSorley up for a 5y TD run (xpt blk'd). 26-21. IU fumbled a punt setting PSU up on a short field and they made it 33-21. IU was INT'd on 4th down at the P36, but they were able to score a TD with just :49 left to cut it to 33-28. IU recovered onside kick but couldn't do anything and ran out of time. IU outgained them 554-417 (5.5-5.7) - PSU did have 170y in KO returns.
2019 - PSU went 3-and-out to open, but IU muffed the punt and PSU got a short field TD. IU tied, PSU kicked FG...10-7, IU would take 14-10 lead. Clifford ran for 38y TD...17-14 end of 1st Q. IU would not lead again. 20-14 HT. IU faked a punt at their own 40 which was stopped and PSU turned that into a 27-14 lead. IU cut it to 27-17, then IU drove 11p 91y to make it 27-24 early 4th. Then PSU would go on an epic 18p 9minute drive converting 4th down twice for TD...34-24. IU kicked a FG with :13 left, PSU recovered the onside kick. 34-27 F. IU outgained them 462-371 (6.4-5.5). Clifford was just 11-23-179-1-0.
Some reoccuring themes here:
Penn State has crushed Indiana with special teams plays (or Indiana has crushed themselves). Big PSU KO returns and muffed/fumbled punts by IU have happened in every game.
Indiana has outgained them in 3 of the last 4 and the only time PSU outgained them was by a mere 18 yards. Perhaps more surprisingly Indiana has outrushed them in 3 of the last 4 as well (only year PSU outrushed them was last year). Total IU yards 1913, Total PSU yards 1567 (of course KO return yards are not factored). Rushing yards IU 602 PSU 482.
In 3 of 4 games IU was able to lead at points in the first half and always remain within 1 score, IU led at HT once. In the last 2 games IU was within one score in the second half before PSU extended their leads and in 3 of the last 4 it was a one score game in the 4th quarter.
The 2019 Indiana team was good and this one looks just as good if not better if QB Penix can take the offense to the next step. There is proven skill and a decent OL that is very good in a couple spots and presumably solid in others. The D has been terrific under Allen. Losing LB/S Ball to ACL is tough. The Hoosiers have some depth on D now and they should be able to cope with that loss. Special teams should be fine.
2020 Penn State has some spots they are reloading at. I expect their OL and DL to be their normal strong self. I think IU defensive front should be fine; PSU's DL is going to be a challenge, but it isn't anything Indiana hasn't faced before. IU OL has been putting guys in the NFL for a few years now and there are a couple candidates again on this line. So I am hopeful IU OL is up for it. RB Journey Brown is out and he was pretty good, I'm sure Penn State will be fine at RB. I am actually more hopeful that IU gains an edge in the passing game. No Hamler, that is much bigger to me than no Brown. We'll see who can take over at receiver for PSU in terms of a game changer. The biggest loss on the PSU D side is the Parsons opt-out. Without Parsons now PSU LB starters are completely new for this game. They won't be bad, but they won't be up to normal standards right off the bat either.
Both teams have new OCs. IU's OC was promoted from within and has been on the staff since 2017. PSU's OC comes from Minnesota and Western Michigan where he was OC for Fleck.
These teams have been pretty even in most of their recent games. The difference is Penn State has made big impactful plays to tilt the game in their favor. Maybe that just have "it" and Indiana is just Indiana again. It is hard for teams like Indiana to get over the hump vs opponents like this. But it does look and feel like Indiana is on the cusp of a break-through win in Big Ten play. Game 1 of a weird 2020 season, I don't see too much of a reason it can't be here. Just no fumbled punts please!
