Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
The Pegasus World Cup certainly doesn't have the luster it had last year with the likes of California Chrome and Arrogate not in this year's edition. Gunrunner, this year's 4-5 favorite, couldn't run in last year's race because he was in quarantine at the Fair Grounds, comes into the race off a great 2017 culminated in winning the Breeders Cup Classic in November. The post draw made this race a bit interesting, however, as Gunrunner will be leaving from the #10 post and running 9F at Gulfstream has a short run into the first turn which could leave him 4 or 5 wide. Since 2006 in 9F races at Gulf posts 9 and higher have a combined win percentage of 4.6%, while posts 1-7 each have an individual win percentage of at least 10%. Reason being Gulfstream tends to be a speed favoring track and it's hard to get the lead from the outside posts with the short run into the first turn without being hung wide, especially as is the case here, with other speedy horses to the inside. So the odds on favorite is going to have to earn this victory and if he can't overcome the post who can win at a price?
#4 Sharp Azteca will try to stretchout to 9F and figures to be on or right off the lead. Great miler, distance is the main question, Likes the track and Navarro will have him ready to fire but don't know if he can finish here.
#3 West Coast was late developing 3yo last year but really came on in the summer winning the Travers and PA Derby before running 3rd in BC Classic for Baffert. Javier retains the mount, although, he has not been riding to his typical level so far this year, but this one has the tactical speed and post to work out a good trip no matter the early fractions. Win contender.
#6 Gunnevera will be ridden by a jockey who has been riding lights out recently in Luis Saez (tied a Gulfstream record with 7 wins on a card earlier this week). Although a closer, he has figured out a way to win several races over this course and figures to get a good pace to run at in this one. Would need an almost perfect setup to win but think he hits the board here at a decent price and if they go very fast early on he could run past them all in late in the stretch.
#5 Collected is the second Baffert entrant who really came into his own last year. In his last race on Boxing Day changed up tactics in what looked like a speed heavy race and sat back last in a short field and allowed Giant Expectations to steal the race on the lead. Can't imagine Baffert and Smith make that mistake again and figure this one to be out on or near the front again. Hasn't missed a bit in the mornings since then and has shown an ability to carry his speed a good distance, but if really battling early with Sharp Azteca and/or Gunrunner may wither late. Contender but prefer Baffert's other.
#3 Stellar Wind was sold after not firing in the BC Distaff for $6 million to go start making babies but new owner's figured they could run here for the big purse before motherhood. Moves to the Chad Brown barn who is 36% starting a new older horse for the first time after switching to his barn and running on dirt. 6 time Garde 1 winner at 8-8.5F but 0-4 at 9F leaves with with mixed feelings on this mare, will most likely limit use to underneath on tri's.
#9 Toast of New York is probably the most interesting entry, as this is his 2nd race off a 3 year layoff. Has only run on dirt once before when he almost ran down Bayern in the 2014 BC Classic where those 2 banged around Shared Belief in the beginning of the race. Would be kind of ridiculous to win this win the world's richest race 2nd off a 3 year layoff, but does have tactical speed and an ability to get the distance. HAs to overcome same outside post numbers as Gunrunner and seems like even just hitting the board would be a tremendous feat. Does seem to have a role in the race though breaking just inside of Gunrunner and could be one of those that help keep the favorite wide into the first turn.
#4 Sharp Azteca will try to stretchout to 9F and figures to be on or right off the lead. Great miler, distance is the main question, Likes the track and Navarro will have him ready to fire but don't know if he can finish here.
#3 West Coast was late developing 3yo last year but really came on in the summer winning the Travers and PA Derby before running 3rd in BC Classic for Baffert. Javier retains the mount, although, he has not been riding to his typical level so far this year, but this one has the tactical speed and post to work out a good trip no matter the early fractions. Win contender.
#6 Gunnevera will be ridden by a jockey who has been riding lights out recently in Luis Saez (tied a Gulfstream record with 7 wins on a card earlier this week). Although a closer, he has figured out a way to win several races over this course and figures to get a good pace to run at in this one. Would need an almost perfect setup to win but think he hits the board here at a decent price and if they go very fast early on he could run past them all in late in the stretch.
#5 Collected is the second Baffert entrant who really came into his own last year. In his last race on Boxing Day changed up tactics in what looked like a speed heavy race and sat back last in a short field and allowed Giant Expectations to steal the race on the lead. Can't imagine Baffert and Smith make that mistake again and figure this one to be out on or near the front again. Hasn't missed a bit in the mornings since then and has shown an ability to carry his speed a good distance, but if really battling early with Sharp Azteca and/or Gunrunner may wither late. Contender but prefer Baffert's other.
#3 Stellar Wind was sold after not firing in the BC Distaff for $6 million to go start making babies but new owner's figured they could run here for the big purse before motherhood. Moves to the Chad Brown barn who is 36% starting a new older horse for the first time after switching to his barn and running on dirt. 6 time Garde 1 winner at 8-8.5F but 0-4 at 9F leaves with with mixed feelings on this mare, will most likely limit use to underneath on tri's.
#9 Toast of New York is probably the most interesting entry, as this is his 2nd race off a 3 year layoff. Has only run on dirt once before when he almost ran down Bayern in the 2014 BC Classic where those 2 banged around Shared Belief in the beginning of the race. Would be kind of ridiculous to win this win the world's richest race 2nd off a 3 year layoff, but does have tactical speed and an ability to get the distance. HAs to overcome same outside post numbers as Gunrunner and seems like even just hitting the board would be a tremendous feat. Does seem to have a role in the race though breaking just inside of Gunrunner and could be one of those that help keep the favorite wide into the first turn.
