Peel's NHL 22-23

peelpub94

peelpub94

More Guards Than Shawshank
I've noticed the past 2 seasons lines have become tighter with fewer mistakes. Almost as if Vegas is now using similar or the same advanced analytics to generate odds. I'll be continuing to play teams with 4% edge or higher on moneypuck projections vs the vegas implied probability moneyline. May begin playing puckline on projected winners with 80% or higher chance as well. When I first started this 4-5 years ago, there were far less, if any projected winners at 80% or even 75%. Think there is slightly less parity right now, can't believe that expanding to Seattle diluted the talent pool that much, but something changed slightly to disrupt the balance. Could also just be disastrous management (see AZ, PHI) expanding the gap between them and the top-tier teams.

Best of luck to everyone on the season!

10/11

TB +100
 
Back to my original posting.. can anyone else reflect on the haves and have-nots in today's NHL? We never used to see money lines in the high -300 - -400 range up until 2 years ago or so. Puck lines at -2, or -2.5 were basically unheard of. Now it's becoming pretty routine. What contributed to this? Is it just a random cyclical occurrence?
 
We were slowly headed there when the O/U's changed from 5/5.5 typically to 6/6.5 typically. Not sure why, deeper offensive talent, I like your point on roster expansion too
 
ScopeY said:
We were slowly headed there when the O/U's changed from 5/5.5 typically to 6/6.5 typically. Not sure why, deeper offensive talent, I like your point on roster expansion too
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A shift to a more speed/offensive approach I think has torpedoed the teams that have not been able to put together a team of that style. *Yet.
 
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just wanted to say thank you for posting. You seem to be extremely sharp and I'm going to follow your thread here. I don't know anything about hockey so can't contribute anything to your question - sounds a little similar to the NFL changing rules to favor offense years ago, yet doesn't sound like the NHL changed them, instead the teams just want that direction on their own. Anyway, thanks again for sharing your obvious great knowledge and GL this year.
 
lvmike32 said:
just wanted to say thank you for posting. You seem to be extremely sharp and I'm going to follow your thread here. I don't know anything about hockey so can't contribute anything to your question - sounds a little similar to the NFL changing rules to favor offense years ago, yet doesn't sound like the NHL changed them, instead the teams just want that direction on their own. Anyway, thanks again for sharing your obvious great knowledge and GL this year.
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Appreciate the kind words and BOL to you on the season as well.

It may be that the lower-end favorites in the -115 <> -135 range are where the value plays come from at a higher clip now than when the dogs of the +120 <> +150 range were hitting at a decent enough clip (where edge was found) to remain profitable. Will have to continue to monitor, nothing is guaranteed.

I also bitched out on Boston +130 yesterday as a play too. This is why you have to take all the thinking and "handicapping" out and trust the process over the long haul.
 
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peelpub94 said:
Appreciate the kind words and BOL to you on the season as well.

It may be that the lower-end favorites in the -115 <> -135 range are where the value plays come from at a higher clip now than when the dogs of the +120 <> +150 range were hitting at a decent enough clip (where edge was found) to remain profitable. Will have to continue to monitor, nothing is guaranteed.

I also bitched out on Boston +130 yesterday as a play too. This is why you have to take all the thinking and "handicapping" out and trust the process over the long haul.
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thanks. yeah, I don't cap and just read a lot and if I see enough great cappers on a game I usually will play it. Have done well. But yesterday I played the Caps and that was over pretty quick though I guess they did pull within 1. But I pushed the play just to get action as I didn't get a strong feel for it from my reading and sure enough it lost (I'm going light on hockey since I'm new to it). But agree you have to have the discipline to follow your process, whatever it may be. thanks again
 
GL going forward On the season ..

I think the shift we are seeing is the offensive minded defenses. The rushes are starting up ice by the defensemen who have speed and puck handling specialties.. If your a defenseman with speed, you are a premium in todays game.. Teams without these guys have to break out with a few passes. More room for error.

I honestly don’t think there are many exceptional goalies around either..
 
faceoff said:
GL going forward On the season ..

I think the shift we are seeing is the offensive minded defenses. The rushes are starting up ice by the defensemen who have speed and puck handling specialties.. If your a defenseman with speed, you are a premium in todays game.. Teams without these guys have to break out with a few passes. More room for error.

I honestly don’t think there are many exceptional goalies around either..
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I believe these are absolutely factors. And with defensemen taking more chances, it creates more opportunities the other way, against like what you pointed out, appear to be less dominant goalies of late.
 
Boston has won the last 18 meetings against Arizona dating back to 2010.

Now we already know they'll win by 1.
 
Gl today hoss…these first few weeks have been a little sloppy the past few seasons. Like you said earlier, I think teams are trying to find themselves and some of them will slow down their pace in another week or so once they realize they can’t play like that…I’ve got 9-11 totals circled for this week, two of those games are today
 
BenchCoach said:
Gl today hoss…these first few weeks have been a little sloppy the past few seasons. Like you said earlier, I think teams are trying to find themselves and some of them will slow down their pace in another week or so once they realize they can’t play like that…I’ve got 9-11 totals circled for this week, two of those games are today
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Mostly overs I assume?
 
YTD
17-12
+4.03u

10/23

Going to be an interesting day with line movement. PHI, FLA, ANA, SEA all sit at 2 or 3% edge right now. With positive movement there will be some +ev opportunity. CBJ is a play right now at 5% / +240. I don't necessarily think this is a smart play by any means but will wait for hopefully a better price.
 
Good morning! Just looked at the sharks line. Hard to imagine they are a small dog in philadelphia. Back to back games. While they didn't look terrible against the devils, Philadelphia sure does look good this season
 
Ohhhh I Seeeee

Sharks are 23-4-2 in the last 29 meetings.

Sharks are 11-2 in the last 13 meetings in Philadelphia.
 
Good luck today. Both teams (philly, sharks) played yesterday. I did not play this game.

Played the other 4 though.

Keep up the good work peel, vapster...
 
Vapster said:
Good morning! Just looked at the sharks line. Hard to imagine they are a small dog in philadelphia. Back to back games. While they didn't look terrible against the devils, Philadelphia sure does look good this season
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It's primarily been Hart keeping them in it. They're getting destroyed on the ice. Sandstrom in tonight tho.
 
guaranteeed said:
They have been an absolute wagon so far, gone ride it till they stop putting up 6 a game

Sid flying too, fun to watch, think he may have 1 last monster year in him
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They’re a top team when healthy no doubt. Well coached too… no Guentzel tomorrow though who is a major part of their offense.
 
NHL 10/24

PIT +100
CAR -140

YTD
17-12
+4.03

If I can get NJ at -120 I will likely play it at 4% edge.
 
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